1) Japan — generally lauded for its response to the #COVID crisis — is now in the grip of what it’s calling a 6th wave in the #pandemic. To be blunt, what the hell is now going wrong in Japan and what lessons can Québec draw from the Land of the Rising Sun?
2) As you can glimpse from the chart below, #COVID hospitalizations in Canada are now in decline, while they are climbing in Japan. Toyko’s metropolitan government has ordered hospitals to boost the number of emergency beds to accept patients at night.
3) In an alarming development reminiscent of what Quebec has been going through, the Japanese government is considering whether it should send low-risk #COVID patients back home to “prevent medical facilities from being overwhelmed.”
4) And in a dreadful return of the yo-yo effect, Japanese authorities are mulling re-imposing #pandemic restrictions. The 6th wave, which is Japan’s largest to date, is being driven by the super contagious Omicron variant.
5) However, apart from #Omicron, what else is driving Japan’s 6th wave? The Japan Times is reporting that the health ministry is linking recent #COVID clusters to restaurants and bars. Outbreaks are also surging in schools and daycares.
6) But there is also a sobering statistic that helps explain the surge in #COVID hospitalizations in Japan: just under 5% of Japan’s population has thus far received the booster shot. In fact, as of Feb. 2, only 4.4% of the population had been administered a third dose.
7) In contrast, 47% of Quebec’s population above the age of five has received a third dose. That’s still much lower than in Denmark and Ireland, but it appears to be enough — along with various #pandemic restrictions still in effect — to lower Quebec’s wave of hospitalizations.
8) And as solipsistic anti-vaxxers gather in Quebec City to disturb joyous Carnaval revelers, it’s worth citing the chart below by the Public Health Agency of Canada. As of mid-January, the unvaccinated comprised nearly 72% of Canada’s #COVID hospitalizations.
9) Japan’s 6th wave underscores the importance not only of vaccination — and especially the booster — but remaining vigilant during the #pandemic. Otherwise, health-care systems are at risk of collapsing, as has already occurred in Quebec. End of thread. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
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1) Two years into the #pandemic, something odd is now occurring worldwide in the #COVID19 crisis, with the number of global deaths surging while cases seem to be falling. This has not happened quite this way previously. In this thread, I will try to explain why this is occurring.
2) During the first wave of the pandemic in the winter of 2020, #COVID testing wasn't widely conducted around the world. The best indicator at the time was the number of deaths, which quickly skyrocketed. Please see the chart below comparing global cases with deaths at that time.
3) But later on, as countries around the world started testing for #COVID intensively, another pattern emerged. Deaths started to track more closely with the number of new cases, with declared deaths appearing a few weeks after infections were recorded. See an example below.
Alors que nous entrons dans la troisième année de la crise sanitaire, il est devenu évident que certains mots ou expressions ne sont plus utilisés au Québec pour parler de la pandémie. Dans cette enfilade pas si sérieuse, je discuterai de ces mots oubliés.
J'ai décidé de choisir des mots ou des expressions en français uniquement parce que, 1) je vis et travaille au Québec et 2), ces termes semblent plus colorés, même poétiques, dans la langue de Molière.
Je voudrais remercier tous ceux qui ont contribué à cette enfilade psycholinguistique avec leurs suggestions. Je me concentre sur les expressions ou les mots discontinus, pas sur ceux encore utilisés que nous détestons, comme « la lumière au bout du tunnel. »
1) Nearly two weeks after posting the highest rate of #COVID deaths per million population among industrialized nations, Quebec has ceded the top spot back to the United States, as U.S. booster vaccination has stagnated. But this is beginning to happen in Quebec, too.
2) Quebec’s booster vaccination program was problematic from the start, as authorities were slow to give a 3rd dose to elderly Quebecers living in their homes. The chart below shows that this tardy decision is likely responsible for the second highest death wave in the #pandemic.
3) But as flawed as Quebec’s booster campaign has been, the situation in the United States has proved even worse. At the same time, more and more U.S. states have been lifting #pandemic restrictions, resulting in #COVID deaths creeping up. Please take a look at the chart below.
1) Dr. Jordan Peterson (@jordanbpeterson), one of Canada’s preeminent intellectuals, cited a meta-analysis on Tuesday concluding that the average #COVID lockdown resulted in only a 0.2% reduction in mortality in Europe and in the U.S. Is that really true?
2) Given Peterson’s huge audience and his commitment to scientific rigour, it is worth stress-testing this meta-analysis that has appeared in Studies in Applied Economics. That would be part of the scientific method of open and fact-based debate.
3) It’s in that scientific tradition that I would like to report the reaction of various British scientists to this meta-analysis. Courtesy of sciencemediacentre.org, this is what Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, had to say:
1) Quebec’s new chief of public health, Dr. Luc Boileau, asserted on Wednesday he believes the province’s severely weakened health system could handle a potential influx of long #COVID patients. In this thread, I will examine whether this assertion stands up to closer scrutiny.
2) This is what Boileau said in response to a sharply focused question by the @mtlgazette’s @JesseFeith: “I think we are. I think it’s going to be a challenge. I think the more they are vaccinated, in particular with the 3rd dose, the less they are at risk to develop long COVID.”
3) Dr. Boileau may have confidence in Quebec’s health-care system, but it’s been years since he managed the Montérégie health authority. The system today is in much worse shape than when Boileau ran hospitals and clinics on the South Shore 13 years ago.
1) At least two countries in the Northern Hemisphere – Ireland and Denmark – have started lifting #pandemic restrictions despite the more contagious #Omicron variant and the fact deaths are still rising in the latter. In this thread, I will examine the risks of lockdown fatigue.
2) First, though, let us focus on Quebec's latest #COVID death wave, which is stubbornly resisting to subside. In fact, the current wave has surpassed the wave last January, when Quebec still had a curfew in effect at this point in 2021. Please take a look at the chart below.
3) The Quebec government is wary to discuss this, but I submit it must be held accountable on this score. Most deaths are now occurring among Quebecers who were at least 70, who had been living at home, many of whom did not get their booster doses in time.