Thread by @BDavisBriz

Looking forward to what should be an interesting discussion on how the aspirations of the #LevellingUpWhitePaper can be translated into meaningful change #WhatNextForLevellingUp

https://twitter.com/CentreforCities/status/1491380112549466112

First panelist @KatieSchmuecker looks at the White Paper from the issue of #Poverty - says this is "not a White Paper for Poverty". The word only mentioned 9 times, mostly in the context of #FuelPoverty & international comparisons #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Schmuecker says #LevellingUp will not be achieved unless we meaningfully improve prospects of those at the bottom. Is sceptical that high productivity automatically means higher wages. Cites London which is the most productive, but most unequal, region #WhatNextForLevellingUp

On what the Government should have done, Schmuecker says that the White Paper could have looked at issues such as employer training, the quality of jobs (esp low-paid sectors) & the recognition of place-based solutions #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Schmuecker calls the paper "hugely unambitious" in skills. Says there was little on how to upskill for the jobs of the future, and nothing in Early Years education. She would also liked to have seen more in the role of anchor institutions #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Schmuecker questions where the funding will come from. Notes we will be spending less overall than the Cameron & May Govts on regional inequalities & the commitment to protect Devolved Govt & Cornwall funding levels will mean others are left behind #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Finally, Schmuecker says that there should have mean more of a focus on wages, and in particular, the benefits system, and how in-work benefits would help keep working families out of poverty as inflation continues to rise #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Next speaker @ahawksbee says he had had mixed reactions to the White Paper. Thought the 1st chapter was "excellent" in its definitions & vision. The 2nd chapter was "a policy wonk's dream" (esp on #Devolution) & a "light" 3rd chapter #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Hawksbee says the third chapter reflects what we are seeing in #Whitehall, with different Departments being more bought in to the #LevellingUp vision than others #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Turning to the politics, Hawksbee says that the #RedWall coalition that elected the Tories in 2019 "were not traditional Tory voters", but rather "contract voters", which have voted Tory & expect delivery both on #Brexit & #LevellingUp left behind voters #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Hawksbee says these "contract voters" had begun moving away from Conservatives due to #Partygate, but since the WP, they have shifted away from Labour to "Don't Know" (instead of "Tory"). Believes delivery of Levelling Up will "preoccupy political debate" #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Hawksbee says this will mean we will see "fast and slow" delivery of benefits of #LevellingUp. Highlights #MetroMayor Ben Houchen who is often quoted in 📰 talking about investment as showing benefits of Levelling Up "without putting shovels in the ground" #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Hawksbee believes that Gove and DLUCH will be working hard to drive the agenda forward, and that it cannot happen without cross-Whitehall support #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Final speaker @Paul_Swinney begins focusing on the positive of the White Paper. Welcomes the fact that the Paper recognises that different parts of the country contribute different things to the economy #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Swinney also welcomes the ambitions on further #Devolution, the attempt to get Whitehall to "do things differently", and the focus on the importance of data to show success. Questions how illuminating all 42 metrics will be, but welcomes the commitment #WhatNextForLevellingUp

The webinar now moves on to a Q&A session #WhatNextForLevellingUp

First question is on the "coherence" of the White Paper. Hawksbee believes there is great coherence between the theory of economic change in Chapt 1 & the systems of delivering in Chapt 2 #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Hawksbee says the "Medici Effect" element of the historical analysis was "overplayed" by media - it is essentially saying "no one intervention will cure all", and that aligns with #Devolution is the means of delivering that across the UK #WhatNextForLevellingUp

However, Hawksbee says that the Chapt 3 "Policy" chapter was weaker. Gives #Crime as an example - nothing that unsafe transport networks are putting 🚺 off travelling for work. Would have liked to have seen "stronger commitments" from the Home Office #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Schmuecker agrees there is "a strong flow" between Chapters 1 & 2, but the White Paper "falls apart" in Chapter 3 with a "flabby" policy chapter. Says it is clear some Departments have stepped up to the challenge, with others offering "vague commitments" #WhatNextForLevellingUp

In particular, areas around Skills and Health & Wellbeing were lacking. Says the 2030 timescale may be "overly ambitious" for some deliverables. Also questions the level of political commitment - ultimately, is there cross-Departmental support #WhatsNextForLevellingUp

Schmuecker says that she does not believe there is currently cross-departmental support, which could lead to targets being missed or dropped "without consequences" #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Schmuecker also observes that #LevellingUp is "at least a two-term project", and wonders how long the policy may last if we see a change in Conservative leadership or the installation of a Labour Government #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Schmuecker also welcomes the framework on #Devolution, but argues it would be easier to move to a "Single Pot" funding mechanism with devolution of "general powers" across the regions to meet local needs #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Swinney looks at Centre for Cities "5 tests" for #LevellingUp. Says it passes the "clear message" test; also passes the "strategic" test (but could be stronger); welcomes the 2030 deadline which "may be at least 2 election cycles" but not very "long-term" #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Swinney says the paper does not offer new funding, but recognises this is due to it not being published alongside #SpendingReview as originally planned & that the WP passes test of having "clear metrics" although needs refining of how metrics will be used #WhatNextForLevellingUp

On a Q to whether the WP is a "whole of Government" agenda, Hawksbee says "not entirely successful". However, welcomes the PM is using his political capital to back the agenda. Believes it will work if Govt see #LevellingUp as electoral imperative #WhatNextForLevellingUp

In particular, Hawksbee says the major challenge will be whether HMT's culture moves towards one of being more comfortable with risk & committing to funding that sees agreed projects through to their "logical conclusion" despite price tag #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Schmuecker agrees - noting there is a greater public appetite towards paying higher taxes to provide higher quality public services. Says the risk of party politics is Levelling Up being a "big ticket" item vs fiscal conservatism in HMT to fund it #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Schmuecker also warns that the consequence of a failure to deliver on #LevellingUp will be an erosion of trust in politics. Also highlights the Cost Of Living Crisis as a potential problem as people may not "feel" better off, despite Govt investment #WhatNextForLevellingUp

On funding, Swinney says WP does poor job of explaining how some funding increases (esp. in R&D) links up to economic growth. While placed-based initiatives are sensible, there should be more larger-scale funding increases, esp in skills, to show ambition #WhatNextForLevellingUp

While Schmuecker welcomes the increase in discretionary local pots to meet local needs, they are small in relative terms when discussing how public money is invested. In particular, there needs to be more focus on social security reform #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Schmuecker calls for a reframing of the benefits of social security - allowing people to participate in their community, allow them to progress out of low-paid jobs & spend more money in local economy - as they did in 🇩🇪 #WhatNextForLevellingUp

On #Devolution, Hawksbee says we now have evidence that "devolution works" - allowing local policymakers to weave together local stakeholders in a way that Westminster cannot #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Hawksbee says WP is "a breadth rather than depth" offering, but this may be a positive as it allows for more constructive conversations for each individual location, rather than prescriptive models from the centre #WhatNextForLevellingUp

On #MetroMayors, Hawksbee welcomes the model, as it will help provide accountability on public sector spend. However, Mayors will also help in the unlocking of private sector, VCSE & philanthropic money in ways central govt cannot #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Responding to a Q on timing, Swinney says 🇩🇪 reunification had "a 30 year timeline & cross-party support". He argues the principles of #LevellingUp will need similar cross-party support, even if the "branding" and suite of programmes change. #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Swinney says that he does not believe that Opposition Parties have been properly engaged in the "Nuts and Bolts" of Levelling Up, so it is not clear how a Labour Government would take the agenda forward #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Swinney says more details are needed to build cross-party support, and help embed it into Government in a way that it could not deliberately be undone by a future PM of any political colour #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Schmuecker agrees. Says parties of all political colours agree that there is a problem with regional inequalities, but there is no consensus that the #LevellingUp agenda is the "cure" for the problems #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Looking at the politics, Hawksbee says Labour have a challenge to win back the #RedWall seats. Notes at the moment, the Labour line has been to say Govt needs to "go further", but have yet to put forward their vision on a #LevellingUp alternative #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Final Q is on data. Swinney welcomes the fact that the WP provides a number of metrics to measure success. However, says clarity is needed, as many have vague terms like "significantly better" #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Schmuecker agrees, asking what "a transport system like London" means. On poverty, Schmuecker thinks Government need to increase their emphasis on employment & also more focus on intra-regional, rather than inter-regional, inequalities #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Hawksbee says that "granularity and community" are vital for success. We need to measure at the lowest possible level to ensure success, and metrics are needed around community and sense of belonging #WhatNextForLevellingUp

Interesting debate on how to progress #LevellingUp beyond the aspirations of the #LevellingUpWhitePaper. Thanks to @KatieSchmuecker @ahawksbee & @Paul_Swinney for your insights, to @AndrewCities for chairing & @CentreforCities for hosting!#WhatNextForLevellingUp

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