Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Feb 13 10 tweets 6 min read
1) Throughout the pandemic, Sweden has distinguished itself dubiously from its Scandinavian neighbors with its much more laissez-faire approach, even at one point promoting the now-discredited notion of herd immunity. And last Wednesday, it claimed the #COVID pandemic was over. Image
2) In recent days, a number of Canadian provinces have rushed to eliminate public health protections – in effect, following Sweden’s example. In this thread, I will compare how the two countries have fared in the #pandemic – from public health measures to vaccination.
3) First, though, it’s worth examining the impact of the #pandemic on the death rates of the two countries. Sweden, with a population of 10.3 million, has to date declared a cumulative total of 16,501 #COVID deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.
4) Canada, with a population (of 38 million) that is nearly four times greater Sweden’s, has recorded a little over two times as many #pandemic deaths as the Scandinavian nation: 35,439. Until very recently, Canada was much more stringent in public health protections than Sweden.
5) The latest seven-day average, compiled by Québec’s public health institute, shows Sweden with a rate of 4.1 #COVID deaths per million population, compared with a rate of 3.2 for Canada. This likely reflects Sweden’s ramp-up in booster vaccinations. Image
6) In fact, Sweden has put more emphasis on #COVID boosters than Canada, which has likely blunted its #Omicron-fuelled and rising death wave. This should give pause to anti-vaxxers who cite Sweden as some sort of pandemic paradise. Please see the vaccine booster chart below. Image
7) Throughout the #pandemic, Sweden has consistently posted much higher mortality waves than Canada, likely reflecting its limited use of public health protections. Please review the comparative chart below by Our World in Data. Image
8) What has made the difference for Canada is that it has promoted vaccination since the doses became available while maintaining sound public health measures. The chart below by Our World in Data tracks Canada’s much higher “stringency” index of measures than Sweden’s. Image
9) But of late, Canadian politicians seem to be ceding to the demands of a minority of intensely self-absorbed, scientifically benighted, and sanctimonious protesters who have been denying the freedoms of the majority of peaceful, hardworking Canadians to go about their lives. Image
10) The lesson to be drawn from this comparative review of Canada and Sweden is that vaccines alone are not enough to fight #COVID. Easy-to-follow public health protections are also required to help us all gain our freedom back from the #pandemic. End of thread. Image

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Feb 16
1) Denmark is in the midst of a BA.2-fuelled wave that is currently driving up #COVID19 deaths, even as that country has lifted public health protections. In this thread, I will assess the potential impact of this sub-variant on Québec, which is also phasing out safety measures.
2) BA.2 has been labelled a “stealth” sub-variant of #Omicron. As you can see from the chart below released last week by Danish public health authorities, the BA.1 Omicron sub-variant flared up in Denmark in late November. It’s coded in blue. Image
3) But in the new year, BA.1 has quickly been superseded by sub-variants BA.2 (in pink in the chart below) and BA.2_H78 (in green). A preliminary Danish study has found that BA.2 is not only more contagious than original Omicron, it’s more likely to infect vaccinated individuals. Image
Read 12 tweets
Feb 12
1) Some Québec parents are now traveling to Plattsburgh to get their teenagers boosted with a third #COVID dose because the government here has chosen not to expand booster immunization for this entire age group. In this thread, I will examine the science behind this decision.
2) First, though, let me share with you what I’ve learned about this example of medical tourism, which is somewhat reminiscent of Québec cancer patients traveling to Plattsburgh in 1999 (but at the government's expense) because of a lack of oncology resources in the province.
3) One Montreal mother drove across the U.S. border on Friday to get her two teens boosted. The shots were free, but the mom had to pay $125 for each child for a #COVID test to return with the all-clear to Canada.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 10
1) As countries around the world rush to lift public health protections in the #pandemic, it’s instructive to check out what's happening now in areas that were first hit by the super contagious Omicron variant: South Africa and Denmark. Are they much better off? The answer is no.
2) On Dec. 30, the government of South Africa declared its #Omicron-fuelled wave officially over and proceeded to ease restrictions, including eliminating a nighttime curfew. The country was first buffeted by the supposedly mild variant in mid-November. How is it doing today?
3) It’s true #COVID deaths in South Africa peaked on Jan. 24 and then plunged soon afterward. But the mortality wave has since rebounded, as the chart below by Our World in Data reveals. Epidemiologically, the most reliable indicator of the severity of the pandemic are deaths.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 9
1) In China’s version of “bread and circuses,” the Winter Olympics are in full swing, with journalists unable to report on what is going on outside the Games. Meanwhile, the nation of 1.4 billion declared just three #COVID deaths – on July 23, 2021.
2) On Jan. 31, the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of China issued a report warning that “as the number of journalists forced out by the Chinese state grows, covering China is increasingly becoming an exercise in remote reporting.”
3) “State-backed attacks against foreign journalists, particularly trolling campaigns online, have made it increasingly hard for journalists remaining in China to operate,” the report adds. You can read the full report here: fccchina.org/2022/01/31/med…
Read 9 tweets
Feb 9
1) Countries and jurisdictions around the world are rushing to lift a wide range of public health restrictions despite the fact that #COVID hospitalizations remain high and testing has dropped off. In this thread, I will survey what I’m calling the Great Resignation. Image
2) In Germany, where #COVID ICU stays have been climbing for the past three weeks, several German states are loosening #pandemic requirements. Bavaria, for example, is opening up for sports and cultural events, while Brandenberg might allow the unvaccinated to shop with a mask. Image
3) In the United States in Connecticut, New Jersey and Delaware, schoolchildren will no longer have to wear masks. On Tuesday, New York State announced businesses won't have to ask for proof of full vaccination. Meanwhile, #COVID deaths are still rising in the U.S. See below. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 8
1) In less than three weeks – 18 days to be precise – the total number of #COVID hospitalizations in Québec plummeted by 1,000 to 2,425, still high but more manageable. In this thread, I'll focus on this fragile progress while drawing attention to a new blind spot: vaccinations. Image
2) Jan. 18 had marked the highest number of #COVID hospitalizations at any point in the pandemic in Québec. It was at that juncture that the government considered activating its Plan B, which would have meant sending family members into hospitals to care for their loved ones.
3) Another reassuring trend appears to be a steady decrease in #COVID deaths. Québec has posted declining deaths in the past six days. Please see the red line in the chart below and compare the latest daily toll with the 98 deaths declared on Jan. 20. Image
Read 11 tweets

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