Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Feb 12 14 tweets 5 min read
1) Some Québec parents are now traveling to Plattsburgh to get their teenagers boosted with a third #COVID dose because the government here has chosen not to expand booster immunization for this entire age group. In this thread, I will examine the science behind this decision.
2) First, though, let me share with you what I’ve learned about this example of medical tourism, which is somewhat reminiscent of Québec cancer patients traveling to Plattsburgh in 1999 (but at the government's expense) because of a lack of oncology resources in the province.
3) One Montreal mother drove across the U.S. border on Friday to get her two teens boosted. The shots were free, but the mom had to pay $125 for each child for a #COVID test to return with the all-clear to Canada.
4) The parent decided on this course of action because her children might be more vulnerable to infection during the #Omicron-driven fifth wave. She learned about the “grey market” Plattsburgh option by reading about it on Twitter.
5) Now for the latest science on this subject. On Jan. 28, Canada’s National Advisory Committee (NACI) on Immunization published a 21-page position paper on #COVID boosters for adolescents. This is what NACI had to say about the third doses for teens:
6) “Emerging real-world data from Israel’s booster dose program with Pfizer-BioNTech…show a significant reduction in the confirmed rate of infection in adolescents 12-15 years of age” who had received their second dose five to six months earlier.
7) However, NACI emphasized “there are currently no data on the effectiveness of booster doses against severe (#COVID) outcomes in adolescents 12-17 years of age.” Still, NACI noted the first two doses have been shown to improve protection against severe outcomes in this group.
8) In any case, NACI found that the potential for adverse events in those teens who had been administered the booster was the same as following the first and second doses – that is to say, a very small risk of rare myocarditis/pericarditis.
9) Ultimately, NACI recommended boosters for “severely immuno-compromised adolescents," for “racialized and/or marginalized communities disproportionately affected by COVID-19" and for those living in "congregate settings such as shelters, group homes or correctional facilities."
10) Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control in the United States recommends the Pfizer booster for “everyone 12 years and older,” while the Moderna third shot is advised for adults only. In mid-January, at least 20% of U.S. adolescents had received a booster.
11) In France, Prime Minister Jean Castex announced that the booster would be available to all teens as of Jan. 24, but it would not be mandatory for this age group. Previously, the booster was allowed in France only for teens suffering from chronic illness.
12) Which brings us to Québec. At present, the Comité sur l'immunisation du Québec recommends three #COVID vaccine doses only for those who are immuno-compromised or on dialysis, ages five and up. (Ontario has a similar policy.)
13) In the meantime, booster vaccination in Québec has stalled at under 50% of the population from the ages of 5 and up, compared with Denmark and Ireland, where rates have exceeded 60%. To date, 5,117 Québec teens have received a 3rd dose, as the chart below indicates.
14) Perhaps Québec should clarify its position on boosters for all teens. Parents are anxious for more information, and many want their teens administered a third dose. At the same time, Québec is stuck with 4.4 million stockpiled doses. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Feb 10
1) As countries around the world rush to lift public health protections in the #pandemic, it’s instructive to check out what's happening now in areas that were first hit by the super contagious Omicron variant: South Africa and Denmark. Are they much better off? The answer is no.
2) On Dec. 30, the government of South Africa declared its #Omicron-fuelled wave officially over and proceeded to ease restrictions, including eliminating a nighttime curfew. The country was first buffeted by the supposedly mild variant in mid-November. How is it doing today?
3) It’s true #COVID deaths in South Africa peaked on Jan. 24 and then plunged soon afterward. But the mortality wave has since rebounded, as the chart below by Our World in Data reveals. Epidemiologically, the most reliable indicator of the severity of the pandemic are deaths.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 9
1) In China’s version of “bread and circuses,” the Winter Olympics are in full swing, with journalists unable to report on what is going on outside the Games. Meanwhile, the nation of 1.4 billion declared just three #COVID deaths – on July 23, 2021.
2) On Jan. 31, the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of China issued a report warning that “as the number of journalists forced out by the Chinese state grows, covering China is increasingly becoming an exercise in remote reporting.”
3) “State-backed attacks against foreign journalists, particularly trolling campaigns online, have made it increasingly hard for journalists remaining in China to operate,” the report adds. You can read the full report here: fccchina.org/2022/01/31/med…
Read 9 tweets
Feb 9
1) Countries and jurisdictions around the world are rushing to lift a wide range of public health restrictions despite the fact that #COVID hospitalizations remain high and testing has dropped off. In this thread, I will survey what I’m calling the Great Resignation. Image
2) In Germany, where #COVID ICU stays have been climbing for the past three weeks, several German states are loosening #pandemic requirements. Bavaria, for example, is opening up for sports and cultural events, while Brandenberg might allow the unvaccinated to shop with a mask. Image
3) In the United States in Connecticut, New Jersey and Delaware, schoolchildren will no longer have to wear masks. On Tuesday, New York State announced businesses won't have to ask for proof of full vaccination. Meanwhile, #COVID deaths are still rising in the U.S. See below. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 8
1) In less than three weeks – 18 days to be precise – the total number of #COVID hospitalizations in Québec plummeted by 1,000 to 2,425, still high but more manageable. In this thread, I'll focus on this fragile progress while drawing attention to a new blind spot: vaccinations. Image
2) Jan. 18 had marked the highest number of #COVID hospitalizations at any point in the pandemic in Québec. It was at that juncture that the government considered activating its Plan B, which would have meant sending family members into hospitals to care for their loved ones.
3) Another reassuring trend appears to be a steady decrease in #COVID deaths. Québec has posted declining deaths in the past six days. Please see the red line in the chart below and compare the latest daily toll with the 98 deaths declared on Jan. 20. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 6
1) Two years into the #pandemic, something odd is now occurring worldwide in the #COVID19 crisis, with the number of global deaths surging while cases seem to be falling. This has not happened quite this way previously. In this thread, I will try to explain why this is occurring.
2) During the first wave of the pandemic in the winter of 2020, #COVID testing wasn't widely conducted around the world. The best indicator at the time was the number of deaths, which quickly skyrocketed. Please see the chart below comparing global cases with deaths at that time.
3) But later on, as countries around the world started testing for #COVID intensively, another pattern emerged. Deaths started to track more closely with the number of new cases, with declared deaths appearing a few weeks after infections were recorded. See an example below.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 5
1) Japan — generally lauded for its response to the #COVID crisis — is now in the grip of what it’s calling a 6th wave in the #pandemic. To be blunt, what the hell is now going wrong in Japan and what lessons can Québec draw from the Land of the Rising Sun?
2) As you can glimpse from the chart below, #COVID hospitalizations in Canada are now in decline, while they are climbing in Japan. Toyko’s metropolitan government has ordered hospitals to boost the number of emergency beds to accept patients at night.
3) In an alarming development reminiscent of what Quebec has been going through, the Japanese government is considering whether it should send low-risk #COVID patients back home to “prevent medical facilities from being overwhelmed.”
Read 9 tweets

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