Todays @kevinmuir piece is beyond brilliant and I had to read it twice just to grasp the significance. Kevin has correctly predicted a lot of the fed and market moves to the T and although I haven’t read the
Sequel the recognition that the fed will choose deliberately to be behind the curve will mean #gold and #silver will suddenly explode kind of like the 2 year treasury- slowly then all at once. I clearly do not own enough upside convexity even though I’m up to my skis in
Risk limits to $gld and $slv calls.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
$GLD $SLV Two years ago close to this day I made a fateful decision to dump all my $gdxj and buy $AR at $1/share. Close colleagues thought i was absolutely loony- sentiment on gold was sky high (similar to where oil sentiment is today fyi) and well sentiment on gas- you could
not find a more reviled asset. That was a life changing trade & even though i exited 1/2 my $ar at 10 & 1/2 at $14; the entries into $btu sub 3, and $5.50 ended up being even better switches. So why the back story-Twitter has made me so much $ from getting a real time sentiment
check on where sentiment is. Well now lets talk about oil; My timeline has everyone calling for $150 oil; don't believe me- look at COT o/s-now I'm not bearish oil- if anyone remembers for 2 years many of my followers have asked me about gold & i said nope-only care about energy
$PDN #uranium I had a quick catch up call with $PDN mgmt today. Some interesting insights. Firstly to address the sale of a directors 23% holding in the company which is what caused the stock to get smashed. In Australia, your tax liability is set based on when you are free to
Sell-given pdn just came out of blackout post results, that px was just recent & given Cliff Lawrence (chairman) did not want undue risk on px fluctuations, he sold to lock in the taxes due. This seems pretty reasonable. For someone who defended $AM mgmt for selling oodles of
Stock at 4.2 and bot boat loads sub $4,i can tell you over reaction for tax related selling can be costly ($AM since those sales has 3x including the generous dividend). In addition, mgmt is looking at expanding the LH resource such that there wont be a cliff in output from 9m to
$PANR $PTHRF. The benefit of the company having raised more $ than expected- as evidenced by the huge outcrop of support in a very oversubscribed deal is that when entering into negotiations to sell the asset a much stronger b/s leaves them in a much better negotiating position
See last line in the paragraph by Jay Chatheam. Mgmt told me that their phones were ringing off the hook from oil companies that were shocked PANR was able to pull of the fund raise. So for all the naysayers who are upset with the additional few % in diln- and are dumping the
Shares today, if your ultimate goal is to sell the asset to the highest bidder (recall the August webinar where Jay Cheatham said this is our last venture & we want to go out with a big win), you need a strong balance sheet so you don’t get pushed around- be it with a farm out
$PANR $PTHRF. This is amazing news. 1. The company raising 50 of the 70$m with a convertible at a 20% premium (around 80p) and is payable at company’s option in either cash or shares. Thus with the 70$M raise the company plans to drill all the zones but most importantly ALKAID
Which will be producing oil - so they can use the cash flow to prepay the convertible loans. Instead of giving 30-50% of the field to a farm out partner- Panr will own 100% less the dilution from this deal - and if they can use alkaid cash flow the dilution will be in the single
Digit %. I’m beyond amazed at the phenomenal financial deal PANR managed to secure. If this is a huge gusher- im glad we own 100% and not some small tiny %. (Note Exxon in Guyana etc ends up owning 20-30% of these massive fields) - we own 100%!!! Time to
These charts from @themarketear show just how much hate there is towards puts, and a strategy called “Texas Hedge” going long calls funded by selling puts (or in HF lingo called risk reversals) has gained in popularity. Problem is this is super super risky.
Here’s the chart showing folks going long calls, shorting puts.
#uranium. I’d encourage everyone to spend the first 15 mins to watch @brandon_munro give a fab update on what’s going on with the SPUT vehicle. Even for someone who watches the sector closely, I couldn’t help get more bullish with couple catalysts that one may have missed.Namely