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Chris Williamson Profile picture
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Feb 17 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Next week sees the release of February flash #PMI surveys, plus RBNZ and BoK meetings as well as #GDP for the US, Germany, Taiwan and Thailand.

Full preview at
bit.ly/3uX5ge0
The PMI data in particular will help assess the economic impact of the Omicron variant. Global growth slowed to a 1½ year low in January with a sharp rise in the number of firms reporting output being constrained by staff shortages & illness linked to Omicron ...
More encouragingly, the incidence of output being constrained by materials shortages continued to fall from a pandemic-peak recorded last October.
The concern – illustrated by chart below – is that output constraints due to staff shortages have been followed by periods of worsening materials shortages, reflecting the lagged impact from the lost production of inputs and other raw materials arising from the labour shortages
Which would mean that the global supply crisis could worsen again in coming months, which would in turn put further upward pressure on prices.

We will know more with next week's surveys.

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More from @WilliamsonChris

Chris Williamson Profile picture
Jan 7
Global economic growth slowed at the end of 2021 amid rising COVID-19 infection rates linked to #Omicron. However, at 54.3, the Global PMI signals above-trend annualised quarterly global GDP growth of approx. 3.5%.

bit.ly/3F8Ar7j
The December global PMI was pulled lower by a slowing of service sector growth, which slipped to the weakest for three months. In contrast, manufacturing growth accelerated to the fastest since July, albeit running behind that of services for the ninth month running.
The widening spread of the Omicron variant led to renewed restrictions (imposed and voluntary) on service sector activity in some economies during December. Manufacturers meanwhile reported that constraints on production had eased, though nonetheless remaining a significant drag.
Read 6 tweets
Chris Williamson Profile picture
Jan 5
Global #manufacturing output growth accelerated in December, coming back into line with growth of new orders, as supply constraints eased. Our #PMI wrap up in 10 charts bit.ly/3qRgGwc
While the number of companies worldwide reporting that output was constrained by shortages continued to run at 3.5 times the long-run average in December, this is down from a record peak of 4.7 times the long-run average back in October.
Although still running at a level far in excess of anything seen prior to the pandemic, the average lengthening of supplier delivery times globally eased for a second consecutive month in December to the smallest recorded since March.
Read 6 tweets
Chris Williamson Profile picture
Oct 22, 2021
The IHS Markit/CIPS flash UK #PMI rose from 54.9 in Sep to 56.8 in Oct, indicating the fastest expansion of the economy since July.

That's above the pre-pandemic survey average of 54.0 and indicative of roughly 0.7% q/q #GDP growth.

bit.ly/3m3apw0
UK growth is looking increasingly lop-sided, however, with the upturn led by the services sector, and consumer-facing and hospitality firms in particular driving the expansion for a third month running. In contrast, manufacturing saw production growth slide to near-stagnation.
While the service sector continued to benefit from the opening up of the economy, factories have been besieged by a further worsening of supply chain delays and ongoing staffing issues, as well as falling exports and what appears to have been diversion of spend toward services.
Read 14 tweets
Chris Williamson Profile picture
Sep 24, 2021
While I was trying (in vain) to find petrol to drive my daughter to London for university tomorrow, a colleague who runs a laundry business told us how he was called to be informed that his lorry load of clean laundry had been deserted at a service station. His driver had been...
... having a break when someone offered to double his pay with a starting bonus if he'd drive for him. An offer too good to refuse, he simply went off leaving my friend in the lurch, a full lorry deserted in a service station. He had to scramble to get his property back. What ...
...an unscrupulous bunch of characters. What a mess this country seems to be in right now.
Read 5 tweets
Chris Williamson Profile picture
Sep 23, 2021
UK PMIs, including flash September data, charted against Bank of England policy decisions underscores how unusual the current economic situation is, with price pressures accelerating while growth slows. bit.ly/3nXx9in
The further acceleration of price growth will add to concerns that the recent bout of inflation is proving less transitory than many suspected,
but the slowdown in growth is a reminder of the fragility of the recovery while the pandemic remains a disruptive force on the economy.
Read 4 tweets
Chris Williamson Profile picture
Sep 6, 2021
UK #PMI data showed #construction activity slowing sharply in August. Given the amount of stimulus and relatively early stage in the recovery, to be slowing so close to the long-term trend is disappointing 1/4
Part of the slowdown can be linked to weaker growth of new orders for construction work, but as the chart shows, activity has slowed much more sharply than demand for new work, so there are other factors at play 2/4
Part of the slowdown is clearly linked to ongoing near-record #shortages of raw materials, as measured by suppliers' delivery times, which have in turn led to unprecedented price hikes for building materials in recent months 3/4
Read 4 tweets

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