Thread by @baunov

THREAD 1/10 During the frantic diplomatic contacts of the recent days, Putin has given the appearance of someone who would be satisfied with any of the possible outcomes.

2/10 Either this hard diplomacy will result in convincing victories, or it will pave the way for Russia to guarantee its security using whatever means it considers necessary. It’s possible that those means may include actions relating to Ukraine bit.ly/3GXOUnN

3/10 In all their recent public statements, Russian officials have stubbornly come back to two points: that at the foundation of the current Ukrainian regime lies a coup d’etat, and that Ukraine is not implementing the Minsk agreements.

4/10 These two leifmotifs represent the choice on offer: either the regime must legitimize itself in Russia’s eyes by implementing the legal Minsk agreements, or Russia will solve the issue of an illegitimate government in a neighboring country itself.bit.ly/3GXOUnN

5/10 Regardless of its desire to contain or punish Russia, it will be much easier for the West to deal with a Russia that almost invaded Ukraine than a Russia that actually did so, and the hawks in Russia know this.

6/10 President Biden has rebuilt Western unity upon the foundation of preventing aggression, and an invasion would divide it once again—as would recognition by Moscow of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics (DNR and LNR) bit.ly/3GXOUnN

7/10 In contrast with a military attack against Ukraine, recognition of the DNR and LNR would not be the worst outcome of the crisis, but for Russia, certainly, it would be one of the least constructive, since it would shut down any discussion of its key demands.

8/10 The West can’t decide whether it’s enough to save Ukraine, or whether it needs to emerge from the crisis as the absolute winner, i.e., having made no concessions, even on the implementation of the less agreeable parts of the Minsk agreements. bit.ly/3GXOUnN

9/10 In its negotiations with mobilized Russia, the West isn’t just fighting for Ukraine’s security, but for the status of absolute victor in the Cold War: a status that Russia is now challenging using force.

10/10 It’s clear that this is where the dividing line is within the West between those in favor of compromise and those hell bent on victory. Precisely the same line divides the Russian leadership. These are some points of my latest piece carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/864…