Thread by @AlexKokcharov

What has been happening in and around #Ukraine in the past 24 hours. THREAD.

Map via @mhmck
1/x

#Russia's proxies in the Donbas conflict zone, DPR and LPR shelled #Ukraine's armed forces positions on 18 February 66 times, 52 of which involved weapons proscribed by the Minsk agreements.

ukrinform.net/rubric-defense…
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This was an increase from 60 shelling incidents on 17 February, 8 incidents on 16 February and 4 on 15 February.

ukrinform.net/rubric-defense…
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This morning, on 19 February, a shell exploded near Mityakinskaya, Rostov region, south Russia, 1 km from border with Ukraine. No casulties or property damage was reported.

Highly unusual incident, which could be a false flag operation by Russia.

rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/62…

4/x

Mityakinskaya is located on the northern bankof Sieversky Donets river (see map). In Luhansk region of Ukraine the river serves as the line of contact between the Ukrainian armed forces and the LPR militas. This stray shell was more likely fired by LPR than by UAF.

5/x

Both DPR and LPR announced mass evacuation of civilians to Russia on 18 February, though their videos were recorded on 16 Februry.

I.e. before the significant increase in shelling incidents on 17 February.

theins.ru/news/248676
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Despite the announced mass evacuation from DPR and LPR, only 3,400 civilians from DPR were confirmed as evacuated to Rostov region of Russia.

rbc.ru/politics/19/02…

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In Rostov region of Russia, as of yesterday daytime, the regional authorities were unprepared and unaware of any evacuations from DPR and LPR held areas in eastern Ukraine.

znak.com/2022-02-18/vla…
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In the morning of 19 February, the regional authorities of Rostov region, south Russia, declared the state of emergency due to the inflow of people from DPR and LPR held areas in eastern Ukraine.

znak.com/2022-02-19/v_r…

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This morning, Russia's proxies in east Ukraine, DPR and LPR announced mass mobilisation of men aged between 18 and 55, and banned them leaving for Russia.

znak.com/2022-02-19/vla…
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As of this morning, Russia blocked entry into the DPR and LPR controlled areas from Rostov region. All border checkpoints are only open for entry into Russia from DPR and LPR held areas in eastern Ukraine.

theins.ru/news/248686

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Yesterday, there were IED explosions in a parked vehicle in Donetsk and on a gas pipeline in Luhansk.

Both look like false flag operations staged by the DPR/LPR/ Russia.

theins.ru/news/248680

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The explosion on the gas pipeline in Luhansk does not impact natural gas transit from Russia to the EU via Ukraine's gas transport system @GasTSOua. This pipeline is not operated by the @GasTSOua and only provides gas to customers locally in Luhansk.

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Ukraine's Defence Ministry wardned that more IED explosions are likely in DPR and LPR controlled areas as false flag operations conducted by militants/Russia in order to put the blame for the escalation on Ukraine.

theins.ru/news/248677

14/x

Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Zaluzhny repeatedly said that Ukraine had no plans for a military offensive against DPR and LPR in eastern Ukraine.

ukrinform.net/rubric-defense…

15/x

Alleged Ukrainian plans for a miltiary offensive against DPR and LPR in eastern Ukraine are nothing new, and have been floating around since 2015.

Here' a Russian news report from February 2018, with maps ans arrows. Obviously, no invasion followed:
rossaprimavera.ru/news/14a66b36
16/x

Here's another alleged Ukrainian plan for a military offensive against DPR and LPR - from August 2015.

Obviously, no offensive followed. These reports are used by Russia to scare civilians in Donetsk and Luhansk.

ross-bel.ru/novorossiya-i-…

17/x

All this escalation in Donbas since Thursday is a plot by Russia to force Ukraine to negotiate with DPR and LPR directly, on Russian terms.

Yesterday, Putin called for negotiations between Kyiv and Donbas entities "the sooner the better".

rbc.ru/politics/18/02…

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Yesterday, US president Biden said that he is convinced Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, and that a Russian invasion could happen in the "coming days".

bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

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Yesterday, US ambassador to @OSCE Carpenter @mikercarpenter said that Russia had concentrated up to 190,000 troops near the borders of Ukraine, including in Belarus and in occupied Crimea.

ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/340…

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Here's the map of Russian military build-up near Ukraine's borders, including in Belarus and in occupied Crimea. This is the largest military build-up in Europe since 1945.

washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/…

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Does this mean that Russia has the military capabilities in place for a large scale invasion of Ukraine? Yes.

Does this mean that Russia will necessarily invade Ukraine? No, not necessarily.

economist.com/leaders/2022/0…

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If Putin makes his calculations as a Russian actor, he would probably be dissuaded from invading Ukraine. The cost of Western sanctions against Russia plus the cost of Ukrianian resistance to an invasion would significantly outweigh any potential gains.

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However, it is not implausible that the calculations in the Kremlin could be based on erroneous expectations of limited Ukrainian resistance and of limited Western sanctions.

Such miscalculation would lead to war and be disastrous for both Ukraine - and ultimately Russia.

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There is still room to avert this disaster. US Secretary of State Blinken and Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov agreed to meet on 23 February in Europe (location not specified as of yet).

mk.ru/politics/2022/…

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I obviously do not have a crystal ball and do not know Kremlin's true intentions.

This could be a preparation for a largest war in Europe since 1945 or the biggest bluff in modern history. Only time will tell.

26/26

as a "rational actor" ****

I wish @Twitter would allow editig tweets to remove typos.