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Feb 19 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
2/19 Texas C19 Update - Exit Stage Left

THREAD

* Probably one mid week report left, and then I'll go to once a week to keep my eyes on things
* Everything still collapsing
* Let's take a look!

1/n
 .
2/19 -Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 2/9:

* Positivity rate down to 13.67%, and from here the decline starts to slow
* An interesting bump in testing occurred 2/10-2/14, but its falling again

2/n
2/19 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

Case 7DMA
* now down to 6.6K
* has been down 1/3rd to 1/2 from the previous week (WoW) for 21 straight days
* Cases down 87% from peak

3/n
 .
2/19 - Hospitalizations

* Covid Admissions decline still accelerating, down 30.1% week over week (WoW)
* Covid % of total beds down to 8.82%
* 2020 Winter still 24 more days of growth in the comparison
* Covid General Census 7DMA down 26.2% WoW

4/n
 .
2/19 Severe Hospitalizations

* Same comments as 2/15 - At this point, it goes without saying that Winter 2021 wasn't nearly as severe as previous waves.
* ICU & Vent numbers are in rapid decline
* The 2020 vs 2021 Comparison charts, 2020 has a ton of growth still to go

5/n
2/19 - Conclusion

* It's basically over people. Time to go home. LOL
* I'll do a 2/20 Severity/Fatality update because that is still interesting - we are looking right into hospital peak and just after.
* Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

6/end

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
Feb 21
2/20 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe hospitalizations and outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave. Updates for:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities & CFR - can confidently project Jan 28 as the fatality peak for this wave

1/n
2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/19, Cases 7DMA falling through 6K per day
* Hospitalization Census 7DMA also into the 6K range and still falling fast
* While 2020 Winter wave was 5 months long from end to end, 2021 Winter will be less than 3

2/n Image
2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* Peaks for this wave were 95% of previous Census record, 73% of ICU, and 52% of Vents
* Not only that, but the waves were shorter in length. Aggregates should be even less

3/n Image
Read 8 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Feb 16
2/16 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe hospitalizations and outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave. Updates for:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities & CFR - projecting into hospitalization peak now

1/n
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/15, Cases falling through 8K per day
* Hospitalization Census into the 7K range and falling fast
* Crazy high case peak, while hospitalizations were less than previous waves...

2/n
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* All the hospitalization metrics in freefall
* Notice again how much smaller this ICU/vent peak is than previous Covid waves
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/11, projected thru 1/25

3/n
Read 8 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Feb 16
2/15 Texas C19 Update - Omicron go Night Night...

THREAD

* Cases running north of 100% of positive tests, meaning we are seeing a lot of catch up and backlog being reported
* Despite this, Case 7DMA now below 9K
* Hospitalizations, including ICU/Vents continue freefall

1/n
 .
2/15 -Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 2/5:

* Pos rate 7DMA down to 18.78% & declining a point a day
* More cases being reported than there are positive tests, starting 2/3 & next several days

2/n
2/15 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

Case 7DMA
* now down to 8.7K
* has been down 1/3rd to 1/2 from the previous week (WoW) for 17 straight days
* The decline is slowing because reporting per 2/n and there is little room to fall now.

3/n
 .
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Feb 11
2/10 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

For the next couple of weeks will step up to 2X a week analysis of of C19:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities
* CFR

Mostly because I'm interested in what the final numbers look like for Omicron. Lucky you, LOL!

1/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* This first one and the CFR Chart are the pictures of Omicron.
* A rapid rise and fall
* Cases 280% higher than the previous C19 record, but hospitalizations lower than previous waves, especially the critical care hospitalizations.

2/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* Omicron was more gentle while blowing up the Mandate paradigm
* C19 ICU peaked at 72% of the previous record, Vents at 52%
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/4, projected thru 1/18

3/n
Read 9 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Feb 10
2/9 Texas C19 Update - For what it's worth

* While the dam is breaking on mandates and I hope they wash away in a flood,
* Still going to monitor the collapse of Omicron throughout the state
* Good riddance, yet Thank You Omicron, and here's why...

THREAD

1/n
 .
2/9 - Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 1/30:

* Positivity rate 7DMA had declined to 25% and was about to start losing a point a day, every day
* Feb testing numbers will be a straight line down

2/n
 .
2/9 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

Case 7DMA
* now down to 13.8K
* has been down 1/3rd or more from the previous week (WoW) for 11 straight days
* Today down 50% WoW - a 1st in 2 years of watching (outside of winter storms or holidays)

3/n
 .
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Feb 8
2/7 Texas C19 Update - Plummet

* Steep Declines everywhere
* We're about halfway down the hill
* Will be interesting to far down this does or doesn't bottom out

THREAD

1/n
2/7 - Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 1/28:

* Huge plunge underway across testing, positivity rate & positive tests
* Upcoming incomplete days show a decline of ~1% a day in positivity rate

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
2/7 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

* Cases 7DMA re-enters somewhat normal Covid territory @ 18K
* 7DMA rate of week over week decline continues in the mid 30s %, now 9 consecutive days. Unprecedented rate of decline.

3/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets

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