2/20 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe hospitalizations and outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave. Updates for:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities & CFR - can confidently project Jan 28 as the fatality peak for this wave

1/n
2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/19, Cases 7DMA falling through 6K per day
* Hospitalization Census 7DMA also into the 6K range and still falling fast
* While 2020 Winter wave was 5 months long from end to end, 2021 Winter will be less than 3

2/n
2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* Peaks for this wave were 95% of previous Census record, 73% of ICU, and 52% of Vents
* Not only that, but the waves were shorter in length. Aggregates should be even less

3/n
2/20 TX Severe - Pg 4

* Jan 16-29 = fatality projections to dates already 80-95% reported
* Jan 30 on = TBD
* Fatality peak as of now is Jan 28, and I don't see it changing. Final peak number still TBD
* Going to be significantly less fatalities in this wave than previous

4/n
.
2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 5

* Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the rate of cases sent to the State DSHS vs Fatalities attributed to C19
* CFR differs from Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) which estimates all infection - asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, home tests, etc

5/n
2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 6

* CFR on a date in this chart is determined by dividing the subsequent 7 days 7DMA of fatalities over the previous 7 days 7DMA of cases
* CFR line here is through Jan 23 & very accurate
* CFR is projected through middle of hosp peak now

6/n
2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 7

* CFR @ still running at 0.52% through middle of hospitalization peak, and 5 days away from fatality peak
* Will slowly creep back but how far up is TBD
* Just under 1.00% CFR is seasonal flu territory

7/n
2/20 TX Severe Conclusion

So now we can say with 95% confidence that 1/28 was the fatality peak, and its going to end up right around 275, that Omicron CFR is <= seasonal flu territory.

Covid was already endemic as of December. Hopefully it stays that way.

8/end

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More from @therealarod1984

Feb 19
2/19 Texas C19 Update - Exit Stage Left

THREAD

* Probably one mid week report left, and then I'll go to once a week to keep my eyes on things
* Everything still collapsing
* Let's take a look!

1/n
.
2/19 -Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 2/9:

* Positivity rate down to 13.67%, and from here the decline starts to slow
* An interesting bump in testing occurred 2/10-2/14, but its falling again

2/n
2/19 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

Case 7DMA
* now down to 6.6K
* has been down 1/3rd to 1/2 from the previous week (WoW) for 21 straight days
* Cases down 87% from peak

3/n
.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 16
2/16 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe hospitalizations and outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave. Updates for:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities & CFR - projecting into hospitalization peak now

1/n
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/15, Cases falling through 8K per day
* Hospitalization Census into the 7K range and falling fast
* Crazy high case peak, while hospitalizations were less than previous waves...

2/n
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* All the hospitalization metrics in freefall
* Notice again how much smaller this ICU/vent peak is than previous Covid waves
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/11, projected thru 1/25

3/n
Read 8 tweets
Feb 16
2/15 Texas C19 Update - Omicron go Night Night...

THREAD

* Cases running north of 100% of positive tests, meaning we are seeing a lot of catch up and backlog being reported
* Despite this, Case 7DMA now below 9K
* Hospitalizations, including ICU/Vents continue freefall

1/n
.
2/15 -Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 2/5:

* Pos rate 7DMA down to 18.78% & declining a point a day
* More cases being reported than there are positive tests, starting 2/3 & next several days

2/n
2/15 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

Case 7DMA
* now down to 8.7K
* has been down 1/3rd to 1/2 from the previous week (WoW) for 17 straight days
* The decline is slowing because reporting per 2/n and there is little room to fall now.

3/n
.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 11
2/10 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

For the next couple of weeks will step up to 2X a week analysis of of C19:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities
* CFR

Mostly because I'm interested in what the final numbers look like for Omicron. Lucky you, LOL!

1/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* This first one and the CFR Chart are the pictures of Omicron.
* A rapid rise and fall
* Cases 280% higher than the previous C19 record, but hospitalizations lower than previous waves, especially the critical care hospitalizations.

2/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* Omicron was more gentle while blowing up the Mandate paradigm
* C19 ICU peaked at 72% of the previous record, Vents at 52%
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/4, projected thru 1/18

3/n
Read 9 tweets
Feb 10
2/9 Texas C19 Update - For what it's worth

* While the dam is breaking on mandates and I hope they wash away in a flood,
* Still going to monitor the collapse of Omicron throughout the state
* Good riddance, yet Thank You Omicron, and here's why...

THREAD

1/n
.
2/9 - Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 1/30:

* Positivity rate 7DMA had declined to 25% and was about to start losing a point a day, every day
* Feb testing numbers will be a straight line down

2/n
.
2/9 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

Case 7DMA
* now down to 13.8K
* has been down 1/3rd or more from the previous week (WoW) for 11 straight days
* Today down 50% WoW - a 1st in 2 years of watching (outside of winter storms or holidays)

3/n
.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 8
2/7 Texas C19 Update - Plummet

* Steep Declines everywhere
* We're about halfway down the hill
* Will be interesting to far down this does or doesn't bottom out

THREAD

1/n
2/7 - Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 1/28:

* Huge plunge underway across testing, positivity rate & positive tests
* Upcoming incomplete days show a decline of ~1% a day in positivity rate

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
2/7 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

* Cases 7DMA re-enters somewhat normal Covid territory @ 18K
* 7DMA rate of week over week decline continues in the mid 30s %, now 9 consecutive days. Unprecedented rate of decline.

3/n
. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets

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