2/16 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis
THREAD:
Analysis of severe hospitalizations and outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave. Updates for:
* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities & CFR - projecting into hospitalization peak now
1/n
THREAD:
Analysis of severe hospitalizations and outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave. Updates for:
* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities & CFR - projecting into hospitalization peak now
1/n
https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1493217008644726786
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2
* Numbers through 2/15, Cases falling through 8K per day
* Hospitalization Census into the 7K range and falling fast
* Crazy high case peak, while hospitalizations were less than previous waves...
2/n
* Numbers through 2/15, Cases falling through 8K per day
* Hospitalization Census into the 7K range and falling fast
* Crazy high case peak, while hospitalizations were less than previous waves...
2/n
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3
Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:
* All the hospitalization metrics in freefall
* Notice again how much smaller this ICU/vent peak is than previous Covid waves
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/11, projected thru 1/25
3/n
Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:
* All the hospitalization metrics in freefall
* Notice again how much smaller this ICU/vent peak is than previous Covid waves
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/11, projected thru 1/25
3/n
2/16 TX Severe - Pg 4
* Jan 12-25 = projections to dates already 80-95% reported
* Jan 26 on = TBD
* Projecting thru end of hospital peak now
* Still don't project a +275 fatality day in this wave
* Going to be significantly less fatalities this wave than previous
4/n
.
* Jan 12-25 = projections to dates already 80-95% reported
* Jan 26 on = TBD
* Projecting thru end of hospital peak now
* Still don't project a +275 fatality day in this wave
* Going to be significantly less fatalities this wave than previous
4/n
.
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 5
* Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the rate of cases sent to the State DSHS vs Fatalities attributed to C19
* CFR differs from Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) which estimates all infection - asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, home tests, etc
5/n
* Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the rate of cases sent to the State DSHS vs Fatalities attributed to C19
* CFR differs from Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) which estimates all infection - asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, home tests, etc
5/n
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 6
* CFR on a date in this chart is determined by dividing the subsequent 7 days 7DMA of fatalities over the previous 7 days 7DMA of cases
* CFR line here is through Jan 19 & very accurate.
* CFR is projected through start of hosp peak now
6/n
* CFR on a date in this chart is determined by dividing the subsequent 7 days 7DMA of fatalities over the previous 7 days 7DMA of cases
* CFR line here is through Jan 19 & very accurate.
* CFR is projected through start of hosp peak now
6/n
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 7
* CFR @ still running at 0.46% at start of hospitalization peak
* Will slowly creep back but how far up is TBD
* <1% CFR is seasonal flu territory
* Omicron doing its Omicron thing which is gently blow up Mandate Theater
7/n
* CFR @ still running at 0.46% at start of hospitalization peak
* Will slowly creep back but how far up is TBD
* <1% CFR is seasonal flu territory
* Omicron doing its Omicron thing which is gently blow up Mandate Theater
7/n
2/16 TX Severe Conclusion
We're about 1 week from seeing how Fatalities peaked during this wave. The way fatality reporting works, it takes 3+ weeks for most of the Death Certificates to arrive to the state for a particular day. But we will soon confirm our assumptions.
8/end
We're about 1 week from seeing how Fatalities peaked during this wave. The way fatality reporting works, it takes 3+ weeks for most of the Death Certificates to arrive to the state for a particular day. But we will soon confirm our assumptions.
8/end
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