2/10 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

For the next couple of weeks will step up to 2X a week analysis of of C19:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities
* CFR

Mostly because I'm interested in what the final numbers look like for Omicron. Lucky you, LOL!

1/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* This first one and the CFR Chart are the pictures of Omicron.
* A rapid rise and fall
* Cases 280% higher than the previous C19 record, but hospitalizations lower than previous waves, especially the critical care hospitalizations.

2/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* Omicron was more gentle while blowing up the Mandate paradigm
* C19 ICU peaked at 72% of the previous record, Vents at 52%
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/4, projected thru 1/18

3/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Pg 4

* Fatalities / Hosp Census
* Jan 5-18 = projections to dates that already are 80-95% reported
* Jan 19-on = TBD. Jan 19-26 is hospital peak, fatality picture will become clear next 10 days
* Like ICU/Vents, should be lower than previous waves

4/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 5

* Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the rate of cases sent to the State DSHS vs Fatalities attributed to C19
* CFR differs from Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) which estimates all infection - asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, home tests, etc

5/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 6

* CFR on a date in this chart is determined by dividing the subsequent 7 days 7DMA of fatalities over the previous 7 days 7DMA of cases
* CFR line here is very accurate through Jan 12, as fatalities are 90-95%+ reported through that date

6/n
2/10 TX Severe outcomes - Page 7

* CFR @ still running at 0.4% 1 week out from start of hospitalization peak. Less than seasonal flu.
* Interesting to see if and when CFR rises back above 1%
* highest CFR %s at the lowest case numbers over the last 2 years #wierdbutnot

7/n
2/6 TX Severe Conclusion

I'll do Severe analysis 2X /week for a couple of weeks before wrapping it up.

Omicron was endemic. We knew 18 months ago Covid would go endemic. Appreciate that it blew up Mandate Theater & hope Covid continues on this road to common cold status.

8/end
Oops that last tweet should have read 2/10. Doh!

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More from @therealarod1984

Feb 10
2/9 Texas C19 Update - For what it's worth

* While the dam is breaking on mandates and I hope they wash away in a flood,
* Still going to monitor the collapse of Omicron throughout the state
* Good riddance, yet Thank You Omicron, and here's why...

THREAD

1/n
.
2/9 - Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 1/30:

* Positivity rate 7DMA had declined to 25% and was about to start losing a point a day, every day
* Feb testing numbers will be a straight line down

2/n
.
2/9 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

Case 7DMA
* now down to 13.8K
* has been down 1/3rd or more from the previous week (WoW) for 11 straight days
* Today down 50% WoW - a 1st in 2 years of watching (outside of winter storms or holidays)

3/n
.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 8
2/7 Texas C19 Update - Plummet

* Steep Declines everywhere
* We're about halfway down the hill
* Will be interesting to far down this does or doesn't bottom out

THREAD

1/n
2/7 - Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 1/28:

* Huge plunge underway across testing, positivity rate & positive tests
* Upcoming incomplete days show a decline of ~1% a day in positivity rate

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
2/7 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

* Cases 7DMA re-enters somewhat normal Covid territory @ 18K
* 7DMA rate of week over week decline continues in the mid 30s %, now 9 consecutive days. Unprecedented rate of decline.

3/n
. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Feb 7
2/6 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Update to last weeks analysis of C19:
* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities
* CFR

1/n
2/6 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* We'll start with a view of all metrics, including Cases
* 2021 Winter Wave cases declining rapidly from their peak - 280% higher than the previous C19 record
* However, C19 hospital census peaked at only 95% of the previous record

2/n
2/6 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics:

* Left axis = hospital census
* Right axis = everything else
* ICU peaked at 72% of the previous record
* Vents peaked at 52% of the previous record
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/1, projected thru 1/15

3/n
Read 8 tweets
Feb 6
2/5 Texas C19 Update - Cliff Diving

* Declines only steeping statewide
* Covid Hospital admissions plunge
* Record rates of declines everywhere
* Should be a nice spring!

THREAD

1/n
2/5 - Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 1/26:

* We see the start of the plunge across testing, positivity rate & positive tests
* This manifests in today's case & hospitalization numbers

2/n
.
2/5 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

* Cases 7DMA @ 21K after a huge drop week over week.
Only 12K cases reported today.
* 7DMA rate of week over week decline sets new record of 38%. Now mid 30%s for the past 7 days
* #plummeting

3/n
.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 31
1/30 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Now that we are on the backside of this wave, we can start to focus on severe outcomes and comparisons to previous waves. Well look at

* General Hospitalizations
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities
* CFR

1/n
1/30 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* We'll start with a view of all metrics, including Cases
* Obviously the 2021 Winter Wave was nothing like we've seen before in regards to Cases
* However, general hospitalizations peaked slightly below the previous 2 waves
#Casedemic

2/n
1/30 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

* If we eliminate cases, the hospitalization metrics become clear
* Left axis = gen hospitalizations
* Right axis = ICU, Vents, Fatalities
* While Gen hosps are similar, ICU/Vents are going to peak SIGNIFICANTLY lower than previous two waves

3/n
Read 9 tweets
Jan 29
1/28 Texas C19 Update - So this is what Mahomes felt like when he hit Kelce to beat the Bills in OT

THREAD:

* Testing, Cases & all that
* All my Hospitalization Predictions came true
* Public Health Covid modeling has been pathetic. Atrociously wrong. Politically driven

1/n
1/28 Testing

* As of 1/18/22, everything is in steep decline
* Testing peak was 1/10
* Positives peak was 1/12
* Positivity peak was 1/14
* Its collapsing really fast. Hence we see the same thing in cases in 3/n.

2/n
1/28 - Cases

* Cases in free-fall, 7DMA declining at 25% week over week and increasing
* 7DMA down to 36K, which is still a ridiculous number but not as ridiculous as 52K
* Case 7DMA peak was 1/17
* Declining almost as rapidly as it ascended

3/n
Read 8 tweets

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