in all this dramatic time don't forget that Ukraine is an extremely interesting country, dynamic society, changing economy, vibrant culture. Don't make a too-easy equation Ukraine=war. Our podcasts will help see things deeper. See links in a thread
Thread: we have seen a phrase in some international media reports like: "Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists are preparing for war". This is misleading. Ukraine was never preparing an offensive on occupied Donbas and Crimea. It's crazy to attack proxies of a nuclear power. 1/4
all these 8 years there was no noticeable discussion in Ukrainian society / media about "military solution" of Donbas / Crimea problem. There can be emotions about this but not real arguments. Defense yes, offensive no. 2/4
Even now, having 200,000 Russian troops on Ukraine's border, we don't see any comparable concentration on Ukraine's side. It would be insane to think that Ukraine is preparing an offensive under these circumstances 3/4
logic of the events now: 1. Russian media has been telling its citizens for years that Ukraine is aggressive state 2. Intensified this narrative in past months 3. Says Ukraine makes military buildup, not Russia 4. Moscow taken by surprise by West's reaction, evacuations etc.
5. Russia responds by pushing proxies in occupied Donbas to announce massive evacuation, 6. Continues narrative of "genocidal" Ukraine, makes parallels with "Nazi" crimes, with no evidence 7. Keeps saying that Ukraine will attack these days, incld with chemical WMD
8. Pushes proxies to announce general mobilization (this morning). 9. Shells heavily Ukrainian positions along the contact line to provoke response to get a pretext for attack. 10. Does false flag operations (explosions in Donetsk, Luhansk) to get another pretext.
Pro-Russian accounts have been relaying Putin's rhetoric and saying that Ukraine is the aggressor state which does not want to implement the Minsk Protocols. 2/8
Data from Crowdtangle, a public insights tool owned and operated by Meta, shows an increase in mentions of the Minsk Protocols in Russian-language posts right after the Putin-Macron press conference 3/8
🇺🇦 ex-Minister of Defence: large-scale operation, massive bombing, capturing Kyiv are the least probable scenarios. Moscow’s attempt to organise trigger event, aggravation in eastern Ukraine, sabotage operations, cyber attack - highly likely. 1/5 @ukrpravda_news@KyivIndependent
Russia’s forces are well-equipped with weapons (including Iskander ballistic systems) and logistical/medical units, but they are not ready for a large-scale offensive. Massive bombing is also unrealistic as it will bury Russia’s plans to win “hearts and minds” of Ukrainians. 2/5
Kyiv is not a “more budget-friendly” target given the quality of troops defending it - 100 km of multi-level-defence around 3-Mio people metropolis with complex topography. It is so "autocratic" to suggest that having captured 🇺🇦 capital, Russia will control all of Ukraine. 3/5