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Feb 22 • 3 tweets • 3 min read
Vladimir Putin ~ ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“ (July 12, 2021)

"It is in the hearts and the memory of people living in modern Russia and Ukraine, in the blood ties that unite millions of our families"

#DragonBear #Russia #Ukraine

en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Slowly dawning on even the most recalitrant minds that the weak and malleable Russia of the 1990s was a very strange exception & instead the Russian threat & resulting security problems will be one that our ancestors would have recognised .... but with the #DragonBear twist Image
I wrote this Australian #Realpolitik perspective (28 Feb 2022) on the West's Russia problem, both in terms of Russia's historic drivers & the West's mishandling of its Russian relationship for 30 years, esp as the #DragonBear pact now looms over Eurasia & the Indo-Pacific. Image

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More from @GrayConnolly

Gray Connolly Profile picture
Mar 1
As it is Ash Wednesday tomorrow - any Catholics doing this “I am Twitter fasting for Lent because I have issues” (when being online here is a penance) is in grave sin & a shows a lack of zeal for evangelisation of the masses and correction of error … as the Holy Office held.🇻🇦
Further to the above, the Papal censure against Quietism and the like remains in force - do not try and forgo your duty as a Catholic to poast in order affect some neo protestant pose, like some Mike Baird, over promoted youth minister
The job of Catholics in Lent, as in the various old times when the Ottomans were at the gates of Vienna, is to fight through and to poast through, come what may. Really like the Maccabees (the Prots do not have those books, either). Rome has spoken etc
Read 6 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Feb 27
Some #Realpolitik - very unlikely, even if Russia's campaign failed, that much changes - Putin, removed, Khruschev like, is replaced by someone with Putin's views & but also the competency to have removed Putin. Too much wishcasting. Russia like Iran is a semi-garrison state.
Agree with @SamoBurja here - Russia's various centres of power all align with the view that Russia must be strong and assertive. The replacement for Putin would simply say, I can do this more competently.

There remains this almost religious Western liberal belief that, when they see some Russian or Iranian expat on TV, who speaks English & says nice things & seems like someone they meet in the university cafeteria, that this person represents views of historically imperial powers.
Read 6 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Feb 20
As of now: still unsure what has really happened in eastern Ukraine beyond usual skirmishing. Reports of 'imminent attacks' as yet not launched. Germans say they are in NATO but act as de facto Russian vassals. There comes a point where this drags on ... and on ... but then ...
The Germans claim to be a core NATO ally but in practice behave as a Russian vassal state … this is nothing short of embarrassing … what is “Cringe” in German?

cnbc.com/2022/02/19/ukr…
Resistance to Russian advances will come from Baltic (Poles & Baltic States) & Black (Turks) seas. The Russian ambition is Belarus & Ukraine, so north and south defensive flanks become concerns … why I mention Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave between Poland & the Baltics so often. Image
Read 63 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Feb 15
Were I a betting man … Suspect that any Russian first move will likely be their Spetsnaz / GRU groups engaging behind UKR lines esp an assassination or decapitation strike to throw UKR Govt (and thus NATO responses) into chaos. This ISR picture would be normal then … not
Most western leaders are ex political hacks and decrepit - the strategic effect of the Russians taking out the Ukrainian leadership (while also invading Ukraine itself) would be immense. The Russians know this & ‘playing a home game’ would consider this a risk worth taking
The Tsar’s Okhrana operated dirty abroad. The Soviet plans for WW3 involved deep penetration (per Tukhachevsky and successors) and the use of assassination, sabotage, and chaos, behind their enemy’s lines. The Russian state has never (and would never) renounce these doctrines.
Read 5 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Feb 15
Apparently, PJ O’Rourke has passed on. A very funny writer in his early work who would make sacred cows into hamburgers. Sadly his interesting youthful rebellion saw him become successively Neocon and then scold, becoming the Boomer he had deplored. A lesson for all. May he RIP.
Even if they have the wrong PJ O'Rourke, that is my judgment on the man's work. RIP or otherwise to his family.
PJ O’Rourke’s best work is debatable but his “Ferrari refutes the decline of the West” genre was hilarious …somehow this guy went from lampooning people like Hillary to supporting Hillary when Trump in all his insanely funny poasting ways was the next stage of PJ’s politics
Read 5 tweets
Gray Connolly Profile picture
Feb 14
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov discussing talks and a way forward should be grasped by all sensible people who want to settle the Ukraine issue & who realise the Ukrainians & Russians are much better off as neighbours with security agreements than combatants in a war Image
That both of Lavrov and Putin would do this publicly - and release this video - is a (hopeful) sign that the Russians will negotiate a settlement. News of German and Polish delegations going to Moscow are to be welcomed. A war would be a disaster.

This by @andrewmichta on Russia & Ukraine is a view somewhat contrary to my own but, like me, you should read everything by Andrew, anyway, as the people making policy certainly are (and I suspect so is the Kremlin an avid reader of Andrew).

19fortyfive.com/2022/02/ukrain…
Read 53 tweets

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