Charles Lister Profile picture
Feb 22, 2022 5 tweets 5 min read Read on X
As #Putin maneuvers into position for serious hostilities in #Ukraine, let's bear in mind the recent record of the Russian military. As a baseline is one factoid:

- Russian 'actions' in #Syria since 2015 have killed 23,000+ civilians.

airwars.org/news-and-inves…
In private meetings & bilateral dialogues in which I've been present, influential #Russia figures (both military & diplomatic) have repeatedly described #Grozny as *the* archetypal example of military success.

That 5 week siege & urban assault killed 8,000 civilians.
As a military actor in #Syria, the UN provided #Russia with coordinates of "deconflicted" hospitals -- to keep them safe.

=> #Russia used them to launch a campaign of dozens of precision strikes **on hospitals.**

Once it was done, #Moscow pulled out of the UN arrangement.
More recently, #Russia has been providing #Assad's regime with limited quantities of laser-guided 'Krasnopol' artillery rounds -- which have been directed to their targets by #Russian-operated drones.

Their targets?

Schools, health clinics, water towers, farms & IDP camps.
And that's not to mention #Russia's diplomatic protection of #Assad's chemical weapons program -- responsible for 340+ attacks since 2012.

It almost certainly goes further than that too -- Russia has had a significant presence at Syrian airbases used to launch CW attacks.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Charles Lister

Charles Lister Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Charles_Lister

Oct 11
According to local reporting, ~25,000 Syrians have fled #Lebanon & sought refugee in opposition-held NW #Syria, via the Aoun al-Dadat crossing in #Jarablus.

Getting to Aoun al-Dadat from #Lebanon's border with #Syria costs ~$500 per person in "fees." 🧵 Image
That $500 of "fees" goes to a network of #Assad regime militias & the 4th Division -- to (1) enter #Syria & (2) pass through a web of checkpoints into #SDF-held territory northeast of #Aleppo.

For 25,000 people? That's $12.5 million of extortion revenue.
Once at Aoun al-Dadat crossing, refugees were initially preyed upon by a criminal gang demanding $20-$50 per person for expedited entry into opposition-held northern #Aleppo.

That criminality has since been squashed; the formal crossing fee is ~$15.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 30
An #Israel ground incursion -- while predictable & understandable -- is the first time that #Hezbollah will perceive a potential opportunity to level the playing field.

While the group can't defend against precision strikes, it can fight on the ground.
#Hezbollah will hope to respond asymmetrically -- relying on tunnels & other covert infrastructure to target #IDF troops with ATGMs, snipers & potentially attempts to 'snatch & grab' hostages.

#Israel's intel will need to be solid.
By launching at night, #Israel has the advantage -- but #Hezbollah brought effective night-vision use into the #Syria theater as early as 2013. It's not incapable of operating at night, and the territory is its backyard.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 30
Interesting -- #Russia says U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones have been flying over [#Assad-held] al-Sukhna in #Homs in recent days & on July 27, they nearly collided with Russian jets.

Treat the latter with skepticism, but ISR over Sukhna is significant -- a 🧵.
#Syria's airspace is delineated by deconfliction lines (i.e. defined areas of responsibility), agreed upon by #Russia & U.S.

CENTCOM has been increasingly concerned about #ISIS's recovery in the #Assad-held central desert & al-Sukhna has been key to that.
It's an open secret that subtle US ISR & occasional unacknowledged night-time SOF actions take place in the #Assad-held badiya -- but for #Russia to highlight MQ-9s being an issue is illustrative of (a) an increase amid (b) a failed regime "clearance operation."
Read 5 tweets
Jul 29
Gathering from media reports, statements & leaks, #Israel's response to #Hezbollah's deadly attack on #MajdalShams is coming & it'll be bigger than anything we've seen in #Lebanon since October 2023.

It's a matter of time; a brief 🧵:
#Israel has already gone after key #Hezbollah operational 'HVTs' -- but not *the* leadership. #Beirut remains untouched (as does airport) & #Hezbollah's network of military bases, facilities & missile depots further north. Such strategic targets seem likely.
The key will be hitting #Hezbollah where it hurts, without triggering an existential response & a cycle of uncontrollable escalation -- a hard balance to strike.

Neither side wants all-out war, yes -- but domestically, #Israel has to & will escalate next.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 1
#Israel's strike in #Damascus today is a huge development & a major escalation.

3 #IRGC-QF Generals:

- Brig. Gen. Mohammed Zahedi (Commander, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Gen. Hossein Aminullah (Chief of General Staff, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Maj. Gen. Haj Rahimi (Commander, Palestine)

Image
Image
Image
Since the Feb 7 U.S. strike in #Baghdad, we've had zero confirmed #Iran proxy attacks on U.S. bases in #Iraq & #Syria.

It's quite likely that freeze could now end. The #IRGC has often used U.S. "soft targets" in #Iraq & #Syria as one form of retaliation for #Israel's actions.
For months, Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles & suicide drones have targeted Israeli & U.S. targets in #Iraq, #Syria, the Gulf & #Israel itself -- but all launched from outside #Iran's territory.

Could that now change?

Or will #Iran hit targets in the #KRG again?
Read 5 tweets
Mar 28
There's not nearly enough appreciation of how #ISIS's branches have increased & enhanced their interconnectivity over the past ~18 months.

From #Africa, through the #MiddleEast & into South & SE Asia, lines of logistics, recruitment, financing & plotting overlap more than ever.
Multiple #ISIS wilayat in #Africa have recruitment & logistics lines running into #Europe & #ISIS finance bodies in #Africa have been supporting operatives as far as #Afghanistan.

Recent #ISIS plots in #Europe have been tied back to #Africa, the #MiddleEast & #Afghanistan.
In 2023, multiple #ISIS-related attack plots were foiled in northern #Europe -- most unreported, almost all linked to #ISKP.

BUT, those #ISKP plots were 1st detected *outside* #Afghanistan, underlining the group's transnational reach -- as I wrote here:

foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/27/isi…
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(