As #Putin maneuvers into position for serious hostilities in #Ukraine, let's bear in mind the recent record of the Russian military. As a baseline is one factoid:
- Russian 'actions' in #Syria since 2015 have killed 23,000+ civilians.
In private meetings & bilateral dialogues in which I've been present, influential #Russia figures (both military & diplomatic) have repeatedly described #Grozny as *the* archetypal example of military success.
That 5 week siege & urban assault killed 8,000 civilians.
As a military actor in #Syria, the UN provided #Russia with coordinates of "deconflicted" hospitals -- to keep them safe.
=> #Russia used them to launch a campaign of dozens of precision strikes **on hospitals.**
Once it was done, #Moscow pulled out of the UN arrangement.
More recently, #Russia has been providing #Assad's regime with limited quantities of laser-guided 'Krasnopol' artillery rounds -- which have been directed to their targets by #Russian-operated drones.
Their targets?
Schools, health clinics, water towers, farms & IDP camps.
And that's not to mention #Russia's diplomatic protection of #Assad's chemical weapons program -- responsible for 340+ attacks since 2012.
It almost certainly goes further than that too -- Russia has had a significant presence at Syrian airbases used to launch CW attacks.
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#Israel's strike in #Damascus today is a huge development & a major escalation.
3 #IRGC-QF Generals:
- Brig. Gen. Mohammed Zahedi (Commander, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Gen. Hossein Aminullah (Chief of General Staff, #Syria & #Lebanon)
- Maj. Gen. Haj Rahimi (Commander, Palestine)
Since the Feb 7 U.S. strike in #Baghdad, we've had zero confirmed #Iran proxy attacks on U.S. bases in #Iraq & #Syria.
It's quite likely that freeze could now end. The #IRGC has often used U.S. "soft targets" in #Iraq & #Syria as one form of retaliation for #Israel's actions.
For months, Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles & suicide drones have targeted Israeli & U.S. targets in #Iraq, #Syria, the Gulf & #Israel itself -- but all launched from outside #Iran's territory.
There's not nearly enough appreciation of how #ISIS's branches have increased & enhanced their interconnectivity over the past ~18 months.
From #Africa, through the #MiddleEast & into South & SE Asia, lines of logistics, recruitment, financing & plotting overlap more than ever.
Multiple #ISIS wilayat in #Africa have recruitment & logistics lines running into #Europe & #ISIS finance bodies in #Africa have been supporting operatives as far as #Afghanistan.
Recent #ISIS plots in #Europe have been tied back to #Africa, the #MiddleEast & #Afghanistan.
In 2023, multiple #ISIS-related attack plots were foiled in northern #Europe -- most unreported, almost all linked to #ISKP.
BUT, those #ISKP plots were 1st detected *outside* #Afghanistan, underlining the group's transnational reach -- as I wrote here:
Since 2012, #Iran has been building & consolidating a formidable network of proxies across #Syria & #Iraq -- dozens of groups & 150,000+ members, all financed, trained & armed by the #IRGC.
In #Syria, they engaged in ethnic cleansing & war crimes -- completely unchallenged.
During the formative years of 2012-16, #Obama's admin consciously ignored the #IRGC's militia surge in #Syria -- dismissing it as unimportant to U.S. interests.
In 2015, orders were even granted for U.S. forces to deconflict & coordinate with #Iran's proxies in #Iraq, vs. #ISIS.
For a time ('15-17), U.S. forces fighting #ISIS in #Iraq were effectively told to coordinate with the very same groups who'd killed 100s of U.S. troops from '03-'10 & who are again back to targeting us today.
What a staggering indictment of U.S. inconsistency & ill-judgment.
The same has been true in #Syria, #Yemen & many other acute conflict zones.
The @StateDept has told Congress the #Gaza HM data is an undercount. Why? Because in every previous conflict its data has been +/- 1-3% off post-conflict analysis by #Israel, the U.S., the EU & the UN.
@StateDept Are #Hamas combatant casualties being accurately acknowledged? Clearly not — but that doesn’t affect civilian casualty rates.
With ~20,000 strikes in 6 weeks, much in dense urban environments, it’s hardly surprising that ~15,000 civilians would be dead.
#Putin [rightly] gets slammed for firing cruise missiles into residential buildings in #Ukraine, but when #Israel vaporizes an entire residential block, it's ok & "like the tunnels of Chu Chi."
I'm sorry, but if our principles can't be universal, they count for nothing.
#Hamas' evil massacre in #Israel revealed its true colors -- and the group deserves & requires rooting out.
But a scorched earth campaign in which civilians are paying the overwhelming price is a recipe for disaster. We're watching Hamas 2.0's seeds being sown, bomb by bomb.
We can't viscerally oppose #Assad's sieges in #Syria but accept them in #Gaza & we can't condemn the targeting of residential tower blocks in #Ukraine but turn a blind eye when they're turned to rubble in #Gaza.
Countering extremism requires consistency in values, not hypocrisy.
As fighting escalates further in Deir ez Zour, reports suggest the #SDF has lost 18+ villages & towns to tribal forces.
Since the Akeidat calls earlier today, there are also reports of amassed Arab #SDF defections to the tribes, handing over checkpoints.
Serious, serious news.
Meanwhile, the #SDF continues to dispatch fighters from #Raqqa & #Hasakeh, along with heavy equipment (including U.S.-made Humvees & Bearcats) to confront the tribal uprising in Deir ez Zour.
The tribes control roadways down south though - multiple IED/RPG ambushes yesterday.