As #Putin maneuvers into position for serious hostilities in #Ukraine, let's bear in mind the recent record of the Russian military. As a baseline is one factoid:
- Russian 'actions' in #Syria since 2015 have killed 23,000+ civilians.
In private meetings & bilateral dialogues in which I've been present, influential #Russia figures (both military & diplomatic) have repeatedly described #Grozny as *the* archetypal example of military success.
That 5 week siege & urban assault killed 8,000 civilians.
As a military actor in #Syria, the UN provided #Russia with coordinates of "deconflicted" hospitals -- to keep them safe.
=> #Russia used them to launch a campaign of dozens of precision strikes **on hospitals.**
Once it was done, #Moscow pulled out of the UN arrangement.
More recently, #Russia has been providing #Assad's regime with limited quantities of laser-guided 'Krasnopol' artillery rounds -- which have been directed to their targets by #Russian-operated drones.
Their targets?
Schools, health clinics, water towers, farms & IDP camps.
And that's not to mention #Russia's diplomatic protection of #Assad's chemical weapons program -- responsible for 340+ attacks since 2012.
It almost certainly goes further than that too -- Russia has had a significant presence at Syrian airbases used to launch CW attacks.
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When it comes to reports of a US military withdrawal from #Syria, there are many moving parts in play, but it's clearly coming.
The US military's decisive shift in posture & priorities post-#Assad offered the clearest evidence. A 🧵:
Since #Assad fell in Dec 2024, the US military has established relations with #Damascus & proactively facilitated & pushed talks between the #SDF & #Syria's new gov't.
For CENTCOM: the #SDF *must* integrate into the new #Syria.
The March 10 framework agreement signed by #Syria President Ahmed al-Sharaa & #SDF leader Mazloum Abdi was a direct result of US mediation -- and from March 6, of *intense* pressure on the #SDF (by @CENTCOM's Gen Kurilla & @CJTFOIR's MG Leahy).
For years, #Syria's crisis was a complex geopolitical battleground, involving #Russia, #Iran, #USA, #Turkey, #Israel & more.
With #Assad out, a dangerous geopolitical face-off is intensifying -- between #Turkey & #Israel. A 🧵:
Since #Assad fell 4 months ago, #Israel has launched ~750 airstrikes & 100+ ground incursions into #Syria, seeking to cripple #Syria militarily -- while demanding a complete demilitarization of the south.
With the #HTS-led military victory in #Syria, #Turkey -- in theory -- has the most to gain, and to a large extent, it's moved methodically to establish its influence.
But for now, the transitional gov't in #Damascus wants to balance its regional relations.
The information space around #Syria has collapsed into a toxic pot of vitriol, wild misinformation and... some facts.
Large numbers of people are tragically dead, but the circumstances & context are far more complex than is being widely conveyed. A 🧵:
In the lead-up to Thursday night, pro-#Assad gunmen had launched 46 attacks on interim gov't forces in 6/14 of #Syria's governorates -- but what happened Thursday night was a whole other level.
3 days later, more than 400 gov't forces are confirmed as dead.
Almost all of those 400 gov't forces were locally-deployed -- many killed by summary execution, burned to death & buried alive.
In the 1st night of fighting, pro-#Assad gunmen also launched attacks on rival villages -- some Sunni, others Alawite.
Suffice to say, the chance of #Syria being granted any sanctions relief by the #Trump admin is now effectively zero.
#Assad loyalists knew exactly what they wanted -- an extension of the long-standing "#Assad or we burn the country" motto.
#Assad fell in an #HTS-led military campaign that demonstrated extraordinary & unprecedented self-restraint -- and in the aftermath, calls for 'reconciliation' & recovery kept a lid on a long-standing boiling pot of anger & grudges.
After a decade+ of pro-#Assad sectarian massacres, 82,000 barrel bombs, starvation sieges, 340+ chemical weapons attacks, industrialized torture & 130k disappeared -- the simmering fury & thirst for revenge was restrained only by the prospect of a new start.
- Launched ground incursions into x18 localities in SW #Syria, as deep as 12km;
- Conducted x3 airstrikes;
- Threatened a military intervention toward #Damascus;
- Demanded all of south #Syria be demilitarized.
#Israel says it distrusts #Syria's interim gov't & has sought to instrumentalize minorities to justify its interventions -- particularly the #Druze.
Yet the most powerful #Druze actors have publicly rejected #Israel's "interference" & "stoking division."
24hrs before #Israel began publicly linking the #Druze to its actions in #Syria, the "#Suwayda Military Council" began an online PR campaign -- which many took to be too much of a coincidence.
Their flag was also similar in style to the #SDF in NE #Syria.
NEW -- #Israel is threatening military intervention in #Syria tonight amid rising tensions between interim gov't forces & #Druze militiamen in #Damascus' suburb of #Jaramana.
What's going on? A brief 🧵:
Last night, #Druze militiamen in #Jaramana outside #Damascus attacked a handful of interim gov't forces -- killing one, injuring another & temporarily taking him hostage.
An hour later, the militiamen attacked & ransacked a state police station nearby.
#Druze notables in #Jaramana intervened last night, securing the hostage release & promising the gov't General Security Service to handover the men responsible for the x2 attacks.
That didn't happen & tensions are rising tonight, amid occasional gunfire.