Perspective of adding #Russianstock theme this week:
A) some of the cheapest valuations for large caps in our 40yr history investing, largest bank traded well below 1x PE, dividend yields hit 40% levels
B) throw the baby out with the bath water mentality generally is a buy
1/3
C) understanding in max risk situations, with plentiful unknowns, what is priced in and what is not.
D) ability to look through the clouds and assess the picture 2-3 years out.
E) realizing suspensions, may occur, locking ones investment up for a few years (this is ok for us)
2/3
F) dividends maybe cut for sanction countries
G) risks moderate over time and rerating occurs (sometimes quickly)
H) asymmetric trade on Thursday near lows was 3-4x upside and 30-50% downside
I) theme weighting max 20%, we managed to deploy 5%, 25% of max position
3/3
Russian Exit strategy:
1 week return of 75-125% scale down to full exit
2-4 years for 300-400% plus dividend yields of 100%
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Undersupply stimulates rising prices as inventories are depleted
Oversupply stimulates falling prices as inventories build
Demand growth depleted inventories and stimulates rising prices
Demand reduction builds inventories and prices fall
Great #commodity investors focus on returns, overweight commodities near cycle bottoms (recently that was 2nd and 3rd quarter 2020), now in 1st half 2022 there are may signs (use cycle prices and sector margins as a guide) of a maturing cycle (65%+ cash margins above cost curves)
Maturing = 4th quartile of the cycle
#oil recently moved into that club with the likes of #coal, #lithium and several other commodities.
What does this mean? Elevated risks vs returns, death of asymmetric trades, scaling down positions, harvesting early entry 5-15x gains.
Bottom: actually the best point for maximum greed, often though the point of maximum fear (point of maximum loss)
Top: actually the best point for maximum fear, often though the point of maximum greed (the point of maximum gain)
In sink?
We had our first attack for discussing the concept that our fear gage is gaining momentum, the attack is a further contrarian indicator that we are on the correct track. Denial is a response most have to their greed thesis being questioned, 90% don't handle well this reality.
Wishing and hoping are not rational mechanisms for wealth building.
Understanding the risk one is taking at a given point of the cycle allows one to control and manage the wealth building process.
How many of you have compounded your wealth at 25% pa + over the last 10yrs?
Is a 2-3x PE cheap for #coal company given extraordinary high spot prices?
The answer is ofcourse no, perhaps 2 upside remains.
Variables to consider:
Low cost producer, still profitable as cycle lows, what's mid cycle CF multiple?
Are volumes expanding?
Is the share count reducing due to stock buy backs?
Using a price to book ratio, is it trading near an historic High?
How much super normal cashflow will be collected, prior to the cycle drop off?
Does the current PE drop to 8-10x using midcycle assumptions?
Whats the debt level?
A combination that could produce a 3-4x return from here:
- 50% sustainable increase in volumes over 2022 as low cost
- a net cash balance sheet allowing 20% of shares to be repurchased over 18 months
- 1st quartile cost producer, always profitable through the cycle