Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Feb 28 11 tweets 7 min read
1) Hong Kong has resorted to erecting makeshift modular hospitals from China and building #COVID isolation facilities amid an unprecedented spike in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. All this is being driven by BA.2., the stealth sub-variant of the #Omicron coronavirus.
2) Hong Kong declared on Monday more than 26,000 #COVID infections from the day before, the highest than at any other point in the #pandemic. Hong Kong’s health chief confirmed that authorities will not rule out locking down the entire city of 7.4 million to conduct mass testing.
3) Until #Omicron and BA.2 hit Hong Kong, the special administrative region had handled the #pandemic relatively well by using a #ZeroCOVID approach. However, less than 40% of Hong Kong’s octogenarians have been vaccinated with even a first dose, let alone a booster.
4) At the same time, scientists tracking #COVID variants of concern worldwide have determined that 100% of Hong Kong’s coronavirus samples are screening positive for BA.2, which is at least 30% more contagious than the already super transmissible #Omicron variant of concern.
5) Although Japanese scientists have suggested BA.2 may be more severe than #Omicron, most studies have determined that is not the case. The Hong Kong hospitalizations will no doubt add to the growing body of knowledge surrounding BA.2.
6) For now, Hong Kong authorities have decided to shorten hospital stays for #COVID19 patients to prevent the health system from being overwhelmed. The South China Morning Post has estimated 60,000 people are waiting to be admitted to either isolation or health-care facilities.
7) In the meantime, Hong Kong’s #COVID death rate has already far surpassed those of Japan and South Korea, which are also in the grip of an Omicron and BA.2-driven wave of infections and hospitalizations. See the chart below by Our World in Data.
8) Hong Kong’s #COVID19 mortality rate has also exceeded those of the United States and Canada. The Hong Kong deaths are most likely occurring among the elderly, many of whom have not been adequately vaccinated. Please review the chart below.
9) The tragedy unfolding in Hong Kong underscores the importance not only of maintaining public health protections (which Canadian provinces are now proceeding to lift) but the necessity to vaccinate against the #coronavirus. Please review the chart by Our World in Data below.
10) Unlike Hong Kong, BA.2 has not become predominant in Canada, but prevalence is rising. The one protection Canadians at this point seem to have over Hong Kong residents is much higher vaccination rates. But for those who haven't been boosted, immunity is waning. End of thread.
11) ADDENDUM: Hong Kong's three public mortuaries have reached 90% capacity amid the #COVID19 surge in deaths. Some bodies are now being stored temporarily in emergency rooms, the South China Morning Post is reporting. scmp.com/news/hong-kong…

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Mar 1
1) New Zealand, which for so long had fended off the #pandemic with well-planned public health protections, is now in the grip of an #Omicron-driven wave. But unlike Hong Kong where #COVID deaths are soaring, New Zealand is faring much better. In this thread, I will explain why. Image
2) First, though, let us examine the current state of contagion in New Zealand, a progressive island nation of more than 5 million people. The country reported 14,633 new cases of #COVID19 in the community on Monday as it carries out widespread testing, unlike in Canada.
3) New Zealand’s Ministry of Health has declared 344 patients in hospital being treated for #COVID, with five in the ICU. That compares with 1,446 such hospitalizations in Québec, which has a population 8.6 million and which has often resorted to half measures in the #pandemic.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 27
1) In a little-noticed change, Québec’s public health institute has quietly stopped posting international comparisons on the province’s #COVID death rates. In this thread, I will show why this and other data suppression is blinding Québecers to the true state of the #pandemic.
2) The Institut nationale de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ) discontinued international COVID death comparisons about a month after Premier François Legault asserted that they weren’t fair as the province just happened to be going through its 2nd deadliest wave in the #pandemic. Image
3) Legault instead focused public attention on Québec’s excess deaths from months earlier to show it was faring much better in the #pandemic than other provinces even though its #COVID mortality rate on Jan. 18 was the highest among all wealthy jurisdictions around the world. Image
Read 12 tweets
Feb 27
1) As Russian forces continue their invasion and bomb Ukrainian hospitals – a clear war crime – the nation of 44 million people is also facing a renewed threat in the #pandemic, a calculated form of biowarfare, if you will, on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s part.
2) As NBC News reported on Saturday (and as I’ve flagged in two Twitter threads since last week), Ukraine was already facing its largest #COVID spike in cases yet, with a seven-day average of 37,408 on Feb. 10. It has also been struggling with a polio outbreak since last October.
3) And now Ukraine’s very hospitals that are intended to treat #COVID and polio patients (not to mention the victims of Russia's invasion) are being bombed on purpose. Dymytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, condemned this tactic on Thursday as “beyond evil.”
Read 9 tweets
Feb 24
1) In his zeal to start a war and invade Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin has neglected his own people as so-called excess deaths have surged past more than one million during the #COVID crisis. In this thread, I will return to the subject of pandemics and war. Image
2) “Russia, for instance,” notes Nature magazine, “reported more than 300,000 COVID-19 deaths by the end of 2021, but is likely to have exceeded 1 million excess deaths in that time.” Russia has presumably under-counted #COVID deaths in the lead-up to its invasion of Ukraine. Image
3) In 2021, Russia experienced its sharpest population decline since the end of the Soviet Union three decades earlier, according to the Moscow Times. Russia had only one short lockdown during spring 2020 and less than half the population has received two vaccine doses. Image
Read 10 tweets
Feb 24
1) Montréal’s public health director said Wednesday the city was entering a “transition phase” amid falling #COVID hospitalizations. But 10,500 kilometers away, South Korea's prime minister was appealing for calm amid an unprecedented spike in cases. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) In just four days, the number of declared #COVID infections in South Korea has soared from 100,000 to more than 171,000 – that nation's highest by far than at any other point in the #pandemic. “There is no reason at all to fear or panic,” Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said. Image
3) South Korea has now surpassed the United States in its rate of new weekly #COVID hospitalizations, at a rate of 201.81 per million population compared with the U.S rate of 138.18. This is astonishing given South Korea’s Zero COVID approach in dealing with the #pandemic. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 20
1) As COVID hospitalizations trend downward in Québec — dipping by 31 to 1,758 Saturday — everyone is wondering what will happen as the province continues lifting public health protections with the BA.2 sub-variant on the rise. In this thread, I will try to answer that question.
2) First, it’s worth noting the Omicron variant had the hardest impact on hospitalizations in Québec than at any other point in the pandemic. In contrast, although Omicron caused a wave of hospitalizations in South Africa (where it was first detected), past ones there were worse. Image
3) Omicron has also produced the second highest wave of #COVID deaths in Québec. Again in contrast, although Omicron caused a wave of death in South Africa, previous waves there were higher. So what explains the difference between Québec and South Africa? Image
Read 14 tweets

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