Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Mar 1 11 tweets 7 min read
1) New Zealand, which for so long had fended off the #pandemic with well-planned public health protections, is now in the grip of an #Omicron-driven wave. But unlike Hong Kong where #COVID deaths are soaring, New Zealand is faring much better. In this thread, I will explain why.
2) First, though, let us examine the current state of contagion in New Zealand, a progressive island nation of more than 5 million people. The country reported 14,633 new cases of #COVID19 in the community on Monday as it carries out widespread testing, unlike in Canada.
3) New Zealand’s Ministry of Health has declared 344 patients in hospital being treated for #COVID, with five in the ICU. That compares with 1,446 such hospitalizations in Québec, which has a population 8.6 million and which has often resorted to half measures in the #pandemic.
4) New Zealand's #COVID contagion is being driven largely by #Omicron and its sub-variant BA.2, which both quickly overtook the Delta #corornavirus. But unlike what is now occurring in Hong Kong, the Omicron wave has not resulted in skyrocketing hospitalizations. Why is that?
5) The short answer is that unlike Hong Kong, New Zealand has succeeded in carrying out mass vaccination against #COVID. In fact, New Zealand has already surpassed Canada in boosting its population, as the chart below by Our World in Data makes clear.
6) New Zealand, one of the first nations in the world to implement effective public health measures, switched more than a month ago to “life at red,” a color-coded alert system that Québec and other politically-motivated jurisdictions abandoned much earlier in the #pandemic.
7) At the red setting, Kiwis “can visit cafés and bars, attend gatherings and events, and (even) go to the hairdresser and gym" — provided they have a “vaccine pass,” according to New Zealand’s government. Meanwhile, Québec and other jurisdictions are moving to do the opposite.
8) Inspired by Canada’s anti-mask trucker protests, demonstrators in New Zealand did take to its Parliament two weeks ago. But cheeky authorities cracked down swiftly by playing old Barry Manilow songs on loop, along with vaccine messages. Would Ottawa police have done the same.
9) To date, New Zealand has not counted a single #COVID death in its #Omicron-driven wave. New Zealand last declared a #pandemic fatality on Dec. 28, as the chart compiled from information by Johns Hopkins University shows below.
10) It’s still early days in New Zealand’s latest #COVID wave. But its high rate of vaccination and reliance on public health protections suggest it will fare much better than many jurisdictions, Canada included. This strategy is known as true #VaccinePlus. End of thread.
ADDENDUM: I'm indebted to Patrick Lam (@va2lam) for pointing out an error in tonight's thread. On Feb. 25, New Zealand did confirm #COVID deaths in its #Omicron wave — five in fact, not yet posted on may official dashboards. My apologies.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Feb 28
1) Hong Kong has resorted to erecting makeshift modular hospitals from China and building #COVID isolation facilities amid an unprecedented spike in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. All this is being driven by BA.2., the stealth sub-variant of the #Omicron coronavirus.
2) Hong Kong declared on Monday more than 26,000 #COVID infections from the day before, the highest than at any other point in the #pandemic. Hong Kong’s health chief confirmed that authorities will not rule out locking down the entire city of 7.4 million to conduct mass testing.
3) Until #Omicron and BA.2 hit Hong Kong, the special administrative region had handled the #pandemic relatively well by using a #ZeroCOVID approach. However, less than 40% of Hong Kong’s octogenarians have been vaccinated with even a first dose, let alone a booster.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 27
1) In a little-noticed change, Québec’s public health institute has quietly stopped posting international comparisons on the province’s #COVID death rates. In this thread, I will show why this and other data suppression is blinding Québecers to the true state of the #pandemic.
2) The Institut nationale de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ) discontinued international COVID death comparisons about a month after Premier François Legault asserted that they weren’t fair as the province just happened to be going through its 2nd deadliest wave in the #pandemic. Image
3) Legault instead focused public attention on Québec’s excess deaths from months earlier to show it was faring much better in the #pandemic than other provinces even though its #COVID mortality rate on Jan. 18 was the highest among all wealthy jurisdictions around the world. Image
Read 12 tweets
Feb 27
1) As Russian forces continue their invasion and bomb Ukrainian hospitals – a clear war crime – the nation of 44 million people is also facing a renewed threat in the #pandemic, a calculated form of biowarfare, if you will, on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s part.
2) As NBC News reported on Saturday (and as I’ve flagged in two Twitter threads since last week), Ukraine was already facing its largest #COVID spike in cases yet, with a seven-day average of 37,408 on Feb. 10. It has also been struggling with a polio outbreak since last October.
3) And now Ukraine’s very hospitals that are intended to treat #COVID and polio patients (not to mention the victims of Russia's invasion) are being bombed on purpose. Dymytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, condemned this tactic on Thursday as “beyond evil.”
Read 9 tweets
Feb 24
1) In his zeal to start a war and invade Ukraine, Russian president Vladimir Putin has neglected his own people as so-called excess deaths have surged past more than one million during the #COVID crisis. In this thread, I will return to the subject of pandemics and war. Image
2) “Russia, for instance,” notes Nature magazine, “reported more than 300,000 COVID-19 deaths by the end of 2021, but is likely to have exceeded 1 million excess deaths in that time.” Russia has presumably under-counted #COVID deaths in the lead-up to its invasion of Ukraine. Image
3) In 2021, Russia experienced its sharpest population decline since the end of the Soviet Union three decades earlier, according to the Moscow Times. Russia had only one short lockdown during spring 2020 and less than half the population has received two vaccine doses. Image
Read 10 tweets
Feb 24
1) Montréal’s public health director said Wednesday the city was entering a “transition phase” amid falling #COVID hospitalizations. But 10,500 kilometers away, South Korea's prime minister was appealing for calm amid an unprecedented spike in cases. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) In just four days, the number of declared #COVID infections in South Korea has soared from 100,000 to more than 171,000 – that nation's highest by far than at any other point in the #pandemic. “There is no reason at all to fear or panic,” Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said. Image
3) South Korea has now surpassed the United States in its rate of new weekly #COVID hospitalizations, at a rate of 201.81 per million population compared with the U.S rate of 138.18. This is astonishing given South Korea’s Zero COVID approach in dealing with the #pandemic. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 20
1) As COVID hospitalizations trend downward in Québec — dipping by 31 to 1,758 Saturday — everyone is wondering what will happen as the province continues lifting public health protections with the BA.2 sub-variant on the rise. In this thread, I will try to answer that question.
2) First, it’s worth noting the Omicron variant had the hardest impact on hospitalizations in Québec than at any other point in the pandemic. In contrast, although Omicron caused a wave of hospitalizations in South Africa (where it was first detected), past ones there were worse. Image
3) Omicron has also produced the second highest wave of #COVID deaths in Québec. Again in contrast, although Omicron caused a wave of death in South Africa, previous waves there were higher. So what explains the difference between Québec and South Africa? Image
Read 14 tweets

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