Thread by @michaelh992

More than four days into #Russia's offensive against #Ukraine as talks are slated to start, here is my broad of view of the situation, and where things may go from here ⬇️

Overall, I think it is clear that the Ukrainian military is holding far better than #Russia expected. I don't exclude that Putin was presented a flawed/optimistic view of how things should have gone. As of now the record that was being played in his hear is scratching ⬇️

This is not to say that #Russia has not made any significant advances. Russian forces in the south are on the verge of potentially linking the Donbass with Crimea through a "pincer" move. Linking the two definitely was one of Russia's strategic goals, albeit not the main ⬇️

Russian forces in the south are also moving north towards the center of the country (Zaporizhzhya).

This movement would have been one of #Russia's "killing move" if it wasn't for the staunch defense Ukrainians are making in the Kharkiv-Sumy line

It's clear that the Russian Kharkiv offensive, was meant to reach Dnipro, as Russian forces in the south also made their move towards the city, effectively isolating Ukrainian units in the Donbass, and leading to a broad collapse in Eastern Ukraine. ⬇️

But since the beginning of the offensive, despite the fact that Kharkiv is just a few kilometers from #Russia, and open-source evidence of very large-scale Russian deployments north of it, the city still holds. So does Sumy.

[Record scratches] ⬇️

In Kyiv, Russia visibly wanted to rush towards the city hoping that this would represent a "decapitating" strike.

Air assault on Hostomel was a risky gamble. It almost worked, but Ukrainian reaction was swift, as they shelled the airport to prevent the rapid entry of forces.

Next days, Russian forces also tried same move south of Kyiv (Vasylkiv) - thwarted. They tried big push northwest in Bucha-Irpin, with evidence of major losses on both sides, but Ukrainian line of defense along Irpin River is holding. Russia is now trying to flank away from Kyiv

More broadly, Russian losses in a "small" city like Kharkiv, raises questions as to the cost of actually capturing Kyiv - provided Moscow can enter the city with full force, which it didn't so far.

Entering Kyiv would be costly for the Russian army, and could also lead to significant loss of civilian lives. Russia is starting to go back to its old habit of carrying out punitive shellings with gras, and also with ballistic missiles.

This is mere speculation, but I would not be surprised if some with the top brass of the Russian army are starting to wonder whether they should obey an order to attack Kyiv, and whether this won't lead them to eventual be tried for war crimes - as would involve mass shelling

There are also signs of Russian disarrays on the ground. Many point to logistics as a major weakness, which is very likely. I'd add morale to: I don't think the Russian soldiers truly understand why they are fighting, or believe they are fighting a just war.

In this context, experienced units will do better, but others will not.

There is a reason why Russia tried to build a "case" against Ukraine. In my opinion (and it's just that since this is hard to gauge), it failed.

This is obviously not over. I think the negotiations are likely meant as a pause before an escalation as I mentioned before ⬇️

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1497966857105678347

At this point, I don't even discount "incidents/provocations" happening during or even at the negotiations. For those who know me, I am not in the habit of making these wild speculations, which I find sensationalists.

But Russia has a proven track record of doing exactly that.

(sorry for the reeeeally long thread)