#Ukraine and EU membership? Why this is difficult & will arguably become even more difficult. Or: "Le nationalisme, c'est la guerre"
The EU is not a book club. Joining as quickly as possible, in a fast-track procedure, fails to recognise the nature and functioning of the EU. 1/17
The EU is not a book club. Joining as quickly as possible, in a fast-track procedure, fails to recognise the nature and functioning of the EU. 1/17
https://twitter.com/prof_mayer/status/1500281159921586176
In principle, according to Art. 49 TEU, any European state can apply for membership.
All existing EU members must ratify the treaty of accession.
If only one balks, it won’t happen.
2/17
All existing EU members must ratify the treaty of accession.
If only one balks, it won’t happen.
2/17
In order to qualify, a candidate state must respect the Art. 2 TEU-values and work to promote them.
That's quite a To Do List already: rule of law (i.a. functioning court system, no corruption), democracy, tolerance, equality between men and women, and many more. 3/17
That's quite a To Do List already: rule of law (i.a. functioning court system, no corruption), democracy, tolerance, equality between men and women, and many more. 3/17
But that’s not all. Since 1993, the "Copenhagen criteria" describe (further) conditions for accession.
A "functioning market economy" is on the list here. Not just on paper, but in real terms.
Otherwise, the newbie will drown in the common internal market. 4/17
A "functioning market economy" is on the list here. Not just on paper, but in real terms.
Otherwise, the newbie will drown in the common internal market. 4/17
Accession negotiations are ultimately negotiations on how much transitional time new members get before all environmental standards, full freedom of movement etc. apply. This takes time because the entire body of EU law is reviewed and discussed with the candidate country. 5/17
These negotiations are not really negotiations. The EU Commission dictates the conditions on behalf of the old members. Transition periods can last decades.
Why take this on? Beyond "We are Europeans, too": for the UKR, that would be - if NATO remains out of reach - ... 6/17
Why take this on? Beyond "We are Europeans, too": for the UKR, that would be - if NATO remains out of reach - ... 6/17
...also something with mutual assistance obligations: Art. 42.7 is often overlooked.
All this ultimately a lengthy, often painful transformatory process – a path states choose freely. And there is no entitlement to join. Taking short cuts in that process damage both sides 7/17
All this ultimately a lengthy, often painful transformatory process – a path states choose freely. And there is no entitlement to join. Taking short cuts in that process damage both sides 7/17
When geopolitical considerations rule, when foreign policy people decide (who often do not really understand how the EU works, considering the EU just another ordinary international organisation), things can go wrong.
Past examples: 8/17
Past examples: 8/17
Turkey, some of the Central/Eastern European states as of 2004.
So what about UKR?
There are open questions. Rule of law? What about corruption. Functioning market economy? After Putin's illegal war of aggression there will not be much left.
And… 9/17
So what about UKR?
There are open questions. Rule of law? What about corruption. Functioning market economy? After Putin's illegal war of aggression there will not be much left.
And… 9/17
…there's another aspect under which Putin may be the cause for more distance between UKR and the EU. EU was & is peace project,European integration was the response to the excesses of the nation state, the excessive nationalisms in Europe, after 3 devastating wars between 10/17
...GER and FR, 2 world wars, that led the continent into the abyss. NB: EU is not about overcoming the nation state as such - its excesses.
For a long time the binding forces of the nation state, the attraction of the national, will be around. 11/17
For a long time the binding forces of the nation state, the attraction of the national, will be around. 11/17
But excessive nationalism is not compatible with the EU. What happens right now,I fear,is UKR being pushed into some kind of hyper-nationalism by Putin.
Giving your life for your nation is the ultimate sacrifice. Considering the circumstances, civilians taking up arms...
12/17
Giving your life for your nation is the ultimate sacrifice. Considering the circumstances, civilians taking up arms...
12/17
pushing back tanks with bare hands etc this goes well beyond ordinary patriotism.
Should UKR survive, paying an enormous price for its sovereignty, I fear that after this national near-death experience it will take time to accept subordination to a supranational structure 13/17
Should UKR survive, paying an enormous price for its sovereignty, I fear that after this national near-death experience it will take time to accept subordination to a supranational structure 13/17
in which EU law claims primacy, COM, EP & ECJ tell you what to do. Maybe -hopefully- I am wrong.
But I remember well how new EU members from the former Russian sphere of power, disappointed in the concrete EU, rushed to equate one union, the USSR, with the other, the EU. 14/17
But I remember well how new EU members from the former Russian sphere of power, disappointed in the concrete EU, rushed to equate one union, the USSR, with the other, the EU. 14/17
One can perceive things that way. But then it is better to stay away from the EU or, like the UK, to leave, as the EU is a voluntary community.
Applying the peace blueprint of European integration after WW II would actually mean that UKR AND RUS need join the EU... 15/17
Applying the peace blueprint of European integration after WW II would actually mean that UKR AND RUS need join the EU... 15/17
in order to sort out divergent interests in a civilised way = Instead of sending people to the battlefields, politicians spend endless nights negotiating in windowless rooms, states have to justify themselves before a European Court of Justice etc etc. 16/17
This is how things have worked out between former “hereditary enemies” GER & FR. But EU accession of RUS is beyond my imagination. Too big, too different.
That doesn’t apply to UKR.
So someday: Maybe. Now, soon: No. Association is the more realistic path for now. 17/17
Now...
That doesn’t apply to UKR.
So someday: Maybe. Now, soon: No. Association is the more realistic path for now. 17/17
Now...
...let me react to some comments on the German version of this thread.
My observation is based on the status quo, from the purpose of Eur. Integration to the way accession normally works. Putin destroys the post-1945/1990 international order, but something will replace it. 18/17
My observation is based on the status quo, from the purpose of Eur. Integration to the way accession normally works. Putin destroys the post-1945/1990 international order, but something will replace it. 18/17
European Integration being part of the post-1945/1990 order, it may well be that the EU will also need reconstruction, rethinking, and that may include thinking outside the box.
19/17
19/17
No, I am not being unfair. This is not about merit. War is unfair. Putin’s 19th century style imperial brute force attack and its consequences are unfair.
No, I am not accusing anybody of hypernationalism as a choice. "Le nationalisme, c'est la guerre" has 2 aspects:
20/17
No, I am not accusing anybody of hypernationalism as a choice. "Le nationalisme, c'est la guerre" has 2 aspects:
20/17
Nationalism leads to war. But war also triggers nationalism.
It’s just that I expect certain effects of being forced to defend your nation literally with bare hands, experiencing that nobody is willing to send troops to help.
And: I don’t want EU membership to be used... 21/17
It’s just that I expect certain effects of being forced to defend your nation literally with bare hands, experiencing that nobody is willing to send troops to help.
And: I don’t want EU membership to be used... 21/17
...by European politicians in order to comfort their (our…) bad conscience. This is also about honesty, expectation management, about what is realistic & what is not. There is a lot at stake on this side, too. EU has served us well and helped to maintain peace for more... 22/17
than 70 years in a part of Europe where war broke out on regular basis, typically GER responsible. Remains a fragile construct though, currently facing challenges of its foundations, rule of law, from Member States, PL today would not be admitted to EU).
Don’t overstretch. 23/17
Don’t overstretch. 23/17
Yes, I may be wrong, e.g. if CRO is a valid counterexample, overcame war & nationalism.
And of course it would be a happy ending if UKR became a member that turned out to be the most European of them all, e.g. telling PL or whoever to shelve that sovereignty fetish... 24/17
And of course it would be a happy ending if UKR became a member that turned out to be the most European of them all, e.g. telling PL or whoever to shelve that sovereignty fetish... 24/17
...for the sake of European co-operation, pointing to its own recent experience and insisting that the horrors of war must be avoided at all cost.
But this is not a movie and there is no script that guarantees that happy ending.
25/17 END
But this is not a movie and there is no script that guarantees that happy ending.
25/17 END
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