Hugely important. “Costly wheat will blow up budgets in Middle East, perhaps forcing subsidy cuts that leave citizens hungry. Across sub-Saharan Africa, higher oil prices will strain budgets that are already creaking under burden of a debt splurge.” economist.com/middle-east-an…
#Egypt, the world’s largest wheat buyer, is esp vulnerable to supply fallout from #UkraineRussiaWar. It needs 21m tons of wheat each year, but produces less than half that. Approx 86% of its imports are from Russia and Ukraine.
From @TheEconomist article above: #Tunisia trade minister says subsidised baguettes selling for 190 millimes ($0.06) already cost over 2x that to produce. Tunisia is ill-equipped to cope w/ higher subsidies. Has fiscal deficit ~9% GDP & annual debt-service payments ~same level.
I tweeted this on Feb 26. Situation re: food security has deteriorated even more in #Tunisia since, w/ entire supermarket aisles stripped bare of pasta & other staples, bakeries in key areas of the capital Tunis threatening to close over insufficient subsidies, etc. It’s dire.
Humanitarian & journalist contacts of mine in #Kyiv are bracing for severe assault on city w/in 48 hours. If you or loved ones are there pls understand the risks/ urgency: Unless you're prepared to fight & potentially die defending her, flee #Kyiv now. Time is of the essence.
If you're planning to stay in #Kyiv, though, be prepared to lock down for the assault. Here are some tips from friends working on ground there now in the humanitarian sector:
♦️Stock as much food as possible.
♦️Store as much water as possible. Fill bottles w/ water from bathtub now bc water might be shut off soon.
♦️Prepare candles & flashlights/ torches.
♦️Tape & secure windows as much as possible to prevent fragmentation of glass.
Europe's women have a massively important role in #UkraineRussianWar: *hosting other women.*
The vast majority of refugees fleeing #Ukraine into Europe are women bc Ukrainian men aged 18-60 can't leave.
Credible reports of human trafficking abound. #WomenHostingWomen can help.
Imagine how terrified you'd be if, in course of days, bombs began flying & you had to flee country hurdling straight into the unknown, possibly w/ kids or pet in tow. Now imagine your husband, bf, father, son, brother had to stay. *That* is what Ukrainan women are experiencing.
We all know risks of traveling while female. Multiply those by 1000x when you're a woman refugee. Most Ukrainian women fleeing now will need a series of free or affordable places to stay, & maybe rides too, on their way out of #Ukraine & for weeks or months longer in #EU
🔴 If you have ppl in #Ukraine near pink parts of this map & they have children or don't want to fight through a siege, *please* get them to evac if they can make it ➡️ Lviv safely. Today heard reports of soldiers pillaging food, shooting @ buses & damaging train station in #Somy
Somy is in NE Ukraine, near Kharkiv & Russian border.
For a sense of the tactics solid journalists & analysts fear Russia could employ to take over recalcitrant cities, listen to today's @nytimes Daily podcast: nytimes.com/2022/03/03/pod…
Upshot is things could get v ugly v fast. Evacuating safely or at all might not be poss soon if you're near pink/ in Russia soldiers' path of advance. If you want to leave, pls do so now. Connected to folks in pink areas today w/o option now but to hunker down, hide food & pray
The US should not be accomplice to Kais Saied’s dictatorial consolidation in Tunisia. Additional forms of economic assistance, inc Millenium Challenge, should be given only upon completion of the concrete institutional steps specified here.
I want to flag up one *very* important caveat to my signing, though: I want to state v clearly for the record that, w/o the return of not just a elected parliament but *the* elected parliament (even for a v short time), Tunisia will exist outside constitutional rule.
That’s bc elections held for any new parliament in Tunisia w/o the current (now frozen) parliament organising them through ISIE, new election law, etc. will—by definition—be unconstitutional.
#Kharkiv friends: I'm in touch w/ one of world's most reputable human rights orgs. They're documenting information about potential war crimes that happened in Kharkiv on Feb 28. They need to interview ppl ASAP who were there at the time. Please message me if you can assist.
If any of you could RT or connect me w/ ppl. The team is v multingual & can interview via phone in Ukrainian, Russian, English, Arabic, etc 🙏
It will be a definitive report that writes the history of specific abuses that happened in Kharkiv 2 days ago. Interviewees can speak on or off the record. Extremely reputable organisation.
Update: My family in Kharkiv managed to board Lviv-bound train this afternoon. Indescribable rush of relief, emotion when they got on that train. Beginning of long & difficult journey but we hope the most dangerous part has passed. Sending love to all w/ folks still there 😔🇺🇦❤️
Happy to share whatever tidbits I learned & networks I’ve got to help others escape Kharkiv safely. I’m not in Ukraine but went full throttle trying to help my extended family flee Kharkiv. So don’t hesitate to reach out if needed & I’ll mobilise my network to do whatever I can.
Here’s a small thread I created last night w/ some key info I’d gleaned from smart journalists, diplomats, combat vets & others that might help if you or those you love are in a tough situation in Kharkiv or other cities in Ukraine now: