On that FII selling tweet, I posted earlier, they started selling aggressively in Oct and it was a foregone conclusion that they would keep selling into March as the hike kicks in.

It's all to do with the adjustment in books.

They have managed through long stock futures also.
My view is that we are approaching a selling climax for Fii's now based on the little I know of how these desks operate

I wont be surprised to see a positive FII CASH number in the second half of this month
For those posting FII 1 billion $ sell figure etc, please note that for them to sell 1 billion there has to be buyers to pick the tab for a 1 billion buy also.

And between DII and Retail we have them.

Just SIP money coming in was 10000 CR in Dec and Nov
The faster you learn to read the data accurately and not rely on only a part of the data as most others do , the better you will become as traders

Data drives everything
Right interpretation of data gives you the right bias

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Shai | Power trading with Orderflow

Shai | Power trading with Orderflow Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Am_Shai

Mar 12
We are living in days of high #Vix with added volatility & movement in our favorite indices

There have been strange opens & very quick movements some to profits, others to losses

There is always a message in the data. Data speaks

Let's explore what Vix wants to tell us Image
Vix is at 25- 30 currently.

Is this Normal?

Data from 2010 suggests this as an outlier

A vix above 30 has been trading less than 55 times in 3000 sessions!

It's a 1.83% Image
For those who are new to trading , this is a TIME Profile of the VIX from March 2020.

The mode is seen at 18-20 and anything above the red line of 25 is 2nd standard deviation territory for the markets and a change in Vix regime. Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 26
When i started off in #derivatives #trading, some 15 years back, the "default trade" taught to us was to trade in Futures or to BUY calls or BUY puts as the need arose.

These days the "default trade" is to SELL calls and SELL puts.
Thanks to a spurt in online education, you learn quickly to sell options at 09.25 am and at 12.30 pm and every time of the year.

No education is provided for things like VIX, directional volatility, IV smiles or even basic gamma math
And the numbers speak.

The option market today is 10 times the volume of the Futures market.

and this is just the weekly contract & on normal days of fri to wed.

On Thursday the Option volume market goes up 3X or 30 times the Futures Volumes , mostly writers closing positions
Read 18 tweets
Feb 25
👀👀

"tape needs a bounce to 16770"
For the record, tweet was posted near 3.00 pm and a follow up was also done post close where I clearly mentioned there was no selling visible in the last 30 mins of the day
Still I get ungrateful and unhappy people on the timeline.

No one does more than me to give quality A grade actionable advise and yet there is no appreciation of the efforts I make for you
Read 4 tweets
Jan 24
A lot of #OpenInterest traders will look at the high #OI of today in Futures

The #Nifty F addition was 30458 contracts, a high for the series of Jan

The #Banknifty futures addition was 6265 contracts today, not a high but big.

A quick thread on why this is a half- truth.
The futures market of today is just a fraction of the Options market.

Any day the options market beats the Index Futures 100 times & easy.

So if you are only looking at Futures Open Interest , you are reading just 1/100 th of the market
The entire market is not just divided between 4 players

a) FII's
b) Pros's
c) Retail
d) DII's

but is also hedged completely

So a long F in NF is with a short call as a pair.
Another reason you should not focus only on Futures OI
Read 12 tweets
Jan 24
as mentioned previously , have not been trading overnight positions and happy with all the volatility and the massive intra day swings.

This is excellent for trading .

For the swing, of interest to me is the lows in #Nifty of today right at the channel of importance at 16980
There hasn't been buying in the #Orderflow for quite a while.

Was watching 17700 earlier last week and that did not show any buying.

This is a snippet from our room
we traded with a negative bias below it all last week
Read 5 tweets
Jan 11
A lot of people watch the #SGX pre and post close , and I know whatsapp and telegram groups are always focussed on the #Sgxnifty moves post our close.

New guys think what happens on SGX gets carried to Nifty next day .

Misconception NO 1.
Most SGX traders are short term traders and capitalise and close gains within hours.

This is the reason you won't see a follow through at the open. They are fixated on the global front and if that changes they move out.

The added hours help them to do so.
You will see memes of a drunk woman at night and a sober lady in the morning for SGX justifying the moves which took place overnight :)

A little bit of fun does not hurt

Reality -Open opportunity was closed in huge profits by funds who show up next morning with big big smiles
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(