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Matthew Levitt Profile picture
@Levitt_Matt
Mar 9, 2022 • 16 tweets • 16 min read • Read on X
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Ep 5 of ‘Breaking Hezbollah’s Golden Rule’ dropped today. We start by discussing #Hezbollah’s shadow war with the West, foiled attacks in #Cyprus, a bus bombing in #Bulgaria, and LH’s shifting modus operandi
@WashInstitute
A thread ...
washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
2. On Feb 12, 2008, Imad #Mughniyeh was killed in a joint @CIA -Mossad op near Damascus. A bomb was placed in his car’s spare tire. Fearing he would be next, #Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan #Nasrallah warned Israel to expect an “open war” Image
3. #Hezbollah was desperate to avenge Mughniyeh’s death. The problem was, they weren’t very successful. Operations in Azerbaijan, Egypt, Greece, Turkey, and West Africa were all foiled
washingtoninstitute.org/hezbollahinter… Image
4. Frustrated Iranian officials determined changes needed to be made. They shifted #Hezbollah ‘s operational focus from high-level hardened targets—embassies & diplomats—to soft targets— Israeli tourists & civilians traveling abroad Image
5. In 2009, #Hezbollah sent a Swedish-Lebanese dual citizen & well-trained operative, Hossam Yaacoub, to #Cyprus to act as a courier across Europe & conduct surveillance. His dual citizenship gave Hezbollah access to the #EU
washingtoninstitute.org/hezbollahinter… Image
6. On Yaacoub’s 4th trip to #Cyprus in July 2012, local authorities were waiting for him shortly after his surveillance mission at the #Larnaca airport. Ep 5 guest Carter Burwell & his team were sent to Cyprus to assist with the investigation
washingtoninstitute.org/hezbollahinter… Image
7. Ep5 guest Carter Burwell is the former Counselor to the Secretary of @USTreasury re Terrorism & Financial Intelligence. Burwell previously served as Asst @USAttorneys in the National Security & International Crimes Unit @TheJusticeDept
debevoise.com/carterburwell?… Image
8. During his interviews with Cypriot authorities, Yaacoub kept changing his story. Eventually, he admitted to being an active member of #Hezbollah. He had been instructed to record flights coming from #Israel & find restaurants serving kosher food
washingtoninstitute.org/hezbollahinter… Image
9. Yaacoub surveilled a specific parking lot behind a hospital. Based on this surveillance and his tracking of Jewish restaurants, tourist hotels, & Israeli flights, it looks like authorities thwarted a devastating #Hezbollah attack in #Cyprus
washingtoninstitute.org/hezbollahinter… Image
10. Ep5 guest Magnus Norell @navahoscout explains why #Hezbollah likely chose #Cyprus as its target. He notes Cyprus is not very far from #Lebanon, it has poor airport & harbor security, & it’s in #Europe. The primary message was to cause fear Image
11. Podcast guest Magnus Norell @navahoscout is a senior policy advisor at @EFDBrussels and an adjunct scholar @WashInstitute. From 1997-2000, he helped create a back channel between #Hezbollah & #Israel to facilitate the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
europeandemocracy.eu/author/dr-magn… Image
12. Yaacoub was charged in 2013 with participating in an organized crime group & preparing a criminal act & was sentenced to 4 years in prison. But after serving 2.5 years of his sentence, he was granted early release & deported to Sweden
washingtoninstitute.org/hezbollahinter… Image
13. Just 11 days after Yaacoub’s arrest in 2012, another #Hezbollah operative bombed an Israeli tour bus in the seashore town of Burgas, #Bulgaria. The explosion killed 5 Israelis & the Bulgarian bus driver & wounded 32
washingtoninstitute.org/hezbollahinter… Image
14. After years of failures, #Hezbollah finally carried out an attack. Yet, the operation didn’t go as planned. Mohammad Hassan El-Husseini, the operative who died in the attack, was not supposed to be a suicide bomber. The bomb was detonated early, in the pod we explain why Image
15. Authorities determined that Husseini’s co-conspirators were Canadian-Lebanese citizen Hassan al-Hajj Hassan & Australian-Lebanese citizen Meliad Farah. Both operatives used fake IDs & traveled through several countries before arriving in #Bulgaria
washingtoninstitute.org/hezbollahinter… Image
16. However, the #BulgariaBombing operatives made a series of tactical mistakes. Ep5 guest @nmladenov explains their boarding passes, passports, and hotel details were quite easy to trace, suggesting the bombing in Bulgaria was a rushed job.
washingtoninstitute.org/hezbollahinter… Image

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More from @Levitt_Matt

Matthew Levitt Profile picture
Oct 6
Thread 🧵👇

It's been a long, painful year since the #Hamas massacre of Oct 7. Here's a look back at my writing this year, starting with a @ForeignAffairs article on Oct 11 on "The War Hamas Always Wanted"

@WashInstitute /1 washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…Image
2. Next was a look at "The New Middle East: Hamas Attack, Israel at War, and US Policy," together with @robsatloff @EhudYaariJLM #NeomiNeumann & @GhAlOmari @WashInstitutewashingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
3. Soon came the anniversary of the 1983 #Hezbollah bombing of the US Marine & French military peacekeepers, which prompted me to write on the "Echoes of 1983 Beirut Bombings in Current Iranian Proxy Escalation" @WashInstitute washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
Read 35 tweets
Matthew Levitt Profile picture
May 11, 2022
Some Middle East-themed takeaways from @ODNIgov Haines' annual threat assessment testimony, a thread:armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…
2. No comment on China in Mideast, but notes "CCP is increasing its criticism of perceived U.S. failures and hypocrisy, including the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and racial tensions in the United States"
3. Russia: In the Middle East and North Africa, Moscow is using its involvement in Syria, Libya, and Sudan to increase its clout, undercut U.S. leadership, present itself as an indispensable mediator, and gain military access rights and economic opportunities.
Read 46 tweets
Matthew Levitt Profile picture
Mar 10, 2022
Breaking: @STLebanon appeal chamber reverses acquittals & convicts Merhi & Oneissi, including on charge of conspiracy aimed at committing a terrorist act, ie #Hezbollah murder of #RafiqHariri
2. The @STLebanon Appeals Chamber does, however, find that the Trial Chamber committed an error of fact by failing to find that Mr Badreddine was a #Hezbollah military commander in 2004 and 2005
3. The @STLebanon Appeals Chamber also finds that the Trial Chamber erred in both law and fact by holding that written statements from unavailable witnesses showing that the Green Network was a #Hezbollah network were not corroborated
Read 4 tweets
Matthew Levitt Profile picture
Feb 28, 2022
In this month’s cover of @CTCWP I look at the who/what/where/when/why/how of Iranian external assassination, surveillance, & abduction plots, based on a personal dataset. ctc.usma.edu/february-2022/

A thread 🧵👇 Image
2. This study is based on a dataset that includes 98 cases of assassination, abduction, attack, & surveillance plots by the #Iran regime from Dec 1979–Dec 2021 Image
3. WHO is targeted by #Iran? Of the 98 cases, 42 target dissidents, 31 target Jews/Israelis, 24 target diplomats, 24 target Western interests, & 7 target Gulf interests (note: some cases target multiple) Image
Read 25 tweets
Matthew Levitt Profile picture
Feb 3, 2022
Thread 🧵re SOF raid that took out ISIS leader Qurayshi:
1. Like previous administrations, Biden seeks to get out of 'endless wars' and pivot from Mideast to Asia. Adversaries get a vote, however, so CT efforts must continue. Biden: we will come after you.
2. CT efforts should be seen not in terms of victory or defeat, but rather as an ongoing effort— short of both war and peace—in which both lethal and nonlethal tools are employed to compete with adversaries and disrupt acts of terrorism washingtoninstitute.org/media/4359
3. CT officials very focused on making sure any shift in CT policy seeks a maximum return on US 20-year investment in CT while preserving the many advances made during this period. With fewer troops on ground, looking to leverage opportunities to keep adversaries off balance
Read 11 tweets
Matthew Levitt Profile picture
Mar 4, 2021
1. ~20 yrs after 9/11, it's time 2 think thru what a rationalized & sustainable U.S. CT global posture should look like. We've built great CT tools over 20 yrs, but tools should not dictate strategy. Next week @WashInstitute publishes my CT policy review paper, lots 2 discuss
2. Biden admin interim guidance echoes broadly bipartisan desire 2 rationalize U.S. investment in CT that goes back at least two administrations including pledge not to engage in “forever wars” & to “right-size” U.S. military presence in Mideast whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
3. When it comes to fighting terrorism overseas, mood has shifted to focus on groups presenting threats to homeland, while addressing regional terrorist threats thru intel & action by local partners. But such a shift comes with risks
Read 10 tweets

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