Thread by @OluwamayowaTJ

Last night, I was in a meeting with Dangote and friends. I asked them what the #RusssiaUkraineWar was doing to their businesses, especially as it concerns the wheat industry. I didn’t expect response I got. They said food scarcity is coming and it’s not just #wheat. A thread.

Boye Olusanya, CEO of flour mills, said “Russia and Ukraine are number one and number five in wheat production, and if you take that volume, which is almost one-third of global production, there would be an immediate impact on prices.” This has started. Ditto for Maize.

He said we would start seeing cross border Maize trafficking from Nigeria, which would lead to a scarcity of maize in Nigeria. He told the ministers at the meeting to work with private sector to see how these problems can be solved.

Dangote brought a scarier perspective. He said most of the ingredients used in making fertilizers come from Russia and Ukraine:

Urea
Potash
Phosphate

So fertilizer scarcity is coming. This he believes will affect food production and prices.

Solution: FG should ban maize export.

The industry, including Dangote, expect that maize producers will start exporting maize to earn #FX, so they asked FG to ban export of Maize from Nigeria.

What do you think?

To avoid scarcity, should FG ban export of maize from Nigeria to other countries?

I should add that they also recommended investment in local maize production. To ramp up local production and avoid scarcity.

But that would also need fertilizer, which is also about to become scarce. So, compounding problems.