1/ There’s no point in trying to trade PA like this weekend. It’s designed to chop you up. We’re in the middle of a range. MM is deliberately trying to get retail traders into bad positions
My personal areas of interest are: $36800, $44.5k and $47k
2/ Looking for a 3 tap bounce for a long position around the Fair Value Gap at 36800 and possible shorts at mid-high 40s where a manipulation tap of the highs/false breakout could occur #bitcoin $btc
3/ A key thing I’ve noticed over the weekend is how the influencers are shilling the narrative that this coming week is going to be a big week for Bitcoin and that it’s going to be “exciting”. Ie watch out for some heavy manipulation.
4/ No one wants to miss out on a big week, right? Right?
What does a big week suggest? It suggests we go upwards.
What do most retail traders prefer, longing or shorting? Going long.
Therefore what’s most likely to happen first? Price go up or down?
6/ A reminder of the key areas I’m looking for longs and shorts. Not interested in where we’re at right now. It’s no man’s land and either side could get screwed
8/ Updated BTC liquidations map for 14th of March. Wouldn't be surprised if they whipsaw on Monday and take out that big green spike to the upside.
9/ The majority of the Bitcoin short positions opened on Bitfinex the other day have been closed
10/ Wednesday is FOMC day and can be a volatile day so would be careful and make sure you're aware of when the announcement is going to be made in your timezone. DYOR. Here's an updated liquidations map which atm favours downside #btc#bitcoin $btc
11/ Well well well. I look away from the charts for 1 hour and Asia have done a huge stop hunt.
Hope people didn’t get screwed. Tokyo pumps are 90% of the time the MM getting their shorts filled. Said it many times.
Potentially setting up an M on the 4hr here.
12/ Asia pump = usually leads to dump #Bitcoin#btc $btc
13/ Updated liqs map
14/ Market Maker got busy today. The daily is a blue vector meaning they’re picking up steam. This looks like a W for me. The last time we had a blue vector on the daily was at 36k.
I’ll be watching 44.3k for any rejection/manipulation #bitcoin
15/ Updated liquidations maps for $btc and $eth
16/ My current thoughts on Bitcoin
17/ There’s a reason (other than having been sick with COVID) why I’ve been quiet on Bitcoin lately. It’s a difficult read this month as this range gets tightened. I’ve just been focusing on Alts and getting in and out of them.
(I’m over COVID finally btw 🥳)
18/ Some more thoughts on how i think this resolves
20/ Got a partial dump but then stopping volume appeared. Unsure whether Tokyo are going to continue to dump or just hold yet. Either way I’m not longing it #bitcoin
21/ Personally, as shown above, I’m looking for 39k to be the potential bounce area. Not here
22/ Just be careful. The influencoooors are getting really bullish and spreading “Big move coming on Bitcoin within ## hours 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀”
23/ Key moment here as the NYC session is fully open in less than 15mins.
Technically still in a lower high and there’s a green vector at it that high. Wonder if there’ll be a bear VCR on the 15m in this area?
24/ NYC opened nearly an hour ago. Clocks changed last weekend that i didn’t know about. Still, interesting that we’ve ended up in this area with a green vector within their opening hour
25/ We have a bear VCR on the #Bitcoin 15m chart plus $Eth has a green vector on the 1hr that isn’t pushing up much further than the previous high (however hasnt closed yet)
26/ Gone short but going to be careful here with my stops because if they do decide to go up they’ll likely blast up as it’ll be a break of a trend line/descending channel that retail traders use
Eth 1hr could be the key here if it turns into a bearish vcr
27/ Also because they are close to liquidations that go up to 41.5k they could fakeout to the upside first. There is more money for them to take below at 39.3k
28/ Eth has also just tapped a 4hr Fair Value Gap which can often be a point of rejection. So Eth 1hr and 4hr could be the key to watch here
29/ They may do a false breakout here on this trend line/channel on bitcoin
False move, get some extra longs trapped up, catch those liquidations to the upside then bring it down
32/ $Eth liquidations map. Stacked to the downside
33/
34/ $BTC and $Eth liquidation maps
35/ Funnily enough been 42800 and 43300 is where I’m looking for signs Bitcoin is going to break down. So influencers saying this sort of shit is making me looking even closer at that area.
Looking for a trap breakout of the previous high and then drop.
37/ Alright, seems there’s no good marketing/fundamental reasons as to why. These guys know.
There’s always an outlier in an alts pump that gives a clue the MM is going to dump Bitcoin soon - this time it’s Ether Classic. It’s up 20% out of nowhere and for no reason $etc
38/ The daily on Eth Classic is a green vector as well, go figure.
Market Maker is building their shorts on this coin. Going long on it would be suicidal. I’ll be looking for signs to sort it around $34 #etc $etc $eth #Ethereum#EthereumClassic
39/ Important weekly close coming up for #Bitcoin.
Close where we are now below 43k and it’s a another bad sign
For now, I’m just speculating, but the bad signs are growing ever greater.
40/ My feeling is that anyone shorting Bitcoin right now is getting in too early. It's a Saturday night and they aren't moving Bitcoin (typical for a weekend). I believe they're waiting for the new weekly candle to take out the highs
Alts should be the focus on the weekends
41/ Between $42.8k and $43.4 is where i'm looking at for signs to go short (orange box above on this chart)
42/ For $Eth the key levels i'm looking for shorts are around $3043 (red box above) and $3111 (full recovery of red vector candle to the left).
43/ People looking for big moves on Bitcoin at the weekend when the probability is low. It’s been very like what I describe in my VCR guide
- The alts with W patterns have ran hard
- Bitcoin has chopped up traders as usual
Nothing has changed. They didn’t break the structure with that mini-dump last night. The CME Gap is at 41920, so would expect that to get filled.
Maybe today we get False Move Monday up to the potential short areas - 43000 $btc
47/ Oh, and the update on the weekly close - that wasn’t a good weekly close. They brought it right up for people anticipating a breakout and then dumped right on the new weekly open.
49/ Tokyo pumping. 1hr is a green vector after only 5mins!
50/ Remember that most of the time that Tokyo pumps it's them setting up for a dump.
Hit a 15m Fair Value Gap and then pulled away (second chart, red line)
51/ Aite, now we're here and it's the Asian session that's brought us up to this level and filled the FVG, so now I wait and see if any signs come to go short.
64/ Alright, having processed the information I’m looking for signs of this scenario to play out:
- Fakeout up to $43500-43700 to liquidate the early shorts and trap some more breakout longs
- Down to 39900 to liquidate the longs and sweep Monday’s low
- Unsure after that
65/ Why? Liquidity is there both ways, but also:
- Too many random shitcoin/dinocoins pumping this week. Ada and Doge the latest
- Influencers getting heavily bullish
- At HTF resistance and all of the closest Fair Value gaps to the upside have been taken out
66/ For Eth:
- Looking at 3110 and 3300 as potential fakeout up and rejection points
- Around 2650 is the biggest long liquidation points
Unsure about Eth, have more confidence in the Bitcoin scenario
67/ Eth longs have been closing like there’s no tomorrow too
Most of the higher timeframe VCRs alert yesterday and today have been bearish too.
My bias is for shorts.
68/ They are teasing a bear vcr on the 15m timeframe for BTC, candle hasnt closed yet
69/ No bear vcr yet.
Order book shows they are deliberately suppressing price at these levels
Watching to see if it gets rugged or not though
70/ Bitcoin Dominance is creating a triple bottom at a FVG whilst a lot of Alts have barely moved since the Bitcoin pump started the the beginning of the NYC session
Vector Candle Reversals are very powerful. That's why I had this indicator made.
Look at $AXS here at it's peak price. How many Bullish vs Bearish VCRs do you see? If i'd had this indicator at the time I would have called a dump incoming on it.
Background: I've been working on an indicator for the Vector Candle Reversals I talk about. Many of you know they're a key part of my strategy.
If you've been following me for a while you'll know how powerful these Vector Reversals can be
So the indicator is almost good to go - it's 99% finished
However that's not the cool part.
The cool part is setting up alerts to send instantly to Telegram (with charts) whenever they occur. I have different groups for timeframes and type of reversal - ie 1hr/4hr, bear/bull.
BUT there are 16 possible conditions for alerts to fire.
Aaaaaand 400 allowable alerts / 16 conditions = would only allow for this to be set up on 25 coins max 🤦♂️
Because of this I had to implement some tricks to get around the 400 alerts limit allowed by TV 🤔
1/ As it stands: We're still in this range. Now at range low. Over the past few days we've seen aggressive pushing down with absolutely no relief. However, we're literally at the bottom of this range so i'm not looking for shorts at the moment. $Btc #Bitcoin
2/ Moving to the high tf we see a red vector on the daily, and 2 pinks vectors on the 12hr. The last 12hr being pink and not pushing down beyond the lows makes me think they're just building long positions and by aggressively dropping price are trying to scare retail into selling
3/ Max pain for options expiry for 30th Dec (ie today) is 48k (image 1). And with it being Thursday i'm always looking for a reversal in the New York session.
Max pain for 31st of Dec is 47k (image 2). Then we have a clean slate to work with for 2022.
1/ As much as I’m able to call the tops and bottoms of Bitcoin I find that I struggle with Altcoins. Partly because I try to keep my eye on too many. It means I often get a poor one-time entry or else get too greedy when thinking of where to take profits
2/ Then I get annoyed because a) sometimes I’m stuck in a losing position for a bit without wanting to add to it cus I’ve already gone in big and b) when price retraces from highs I’m left feeling like I didn’t take enough profit
3/ To sum it up I can usually call the direction right on Altcoins but my entries and exits are usually poorly timed due to FOMO. Something we all suffer from. I’m fine with these things on Bitcoin but that’s because I literally know that chart inside out. I watch it 12 hrs a day
I try to show you my thinking process throughout the whole move. I don’t just draw a squiggly line on a chart. I give reasoning and projections with high probabilities.
I want people to learn along with me - seems many of you are doing that and it makes me very happy!
I’m going out for the evening. I’ll be keeping an eye on what they do with Bitcoin. If they do start coming down towards those lows again with aggression I will look to cut my long. However, I think the storm has been weathered and they’re just trapping more shorts atm
For what it’s worth Thursdays are usually reversal days. I’m slightly cautious about there being a full on reversal today. All I’m looking for them to do is shift it out of this zone a little bit. But i do think we’re at the bottom.
The only place i think they could potentially come back to is this green vector. There is still the possibility they sweep the lows of this range to get this. I’m not fudding - we just have to be aware of the possibilities