With the prospect of imminent, dramatic rises in food and energy prices, I am struck by two dynamics in #Jordan.
The deep concern by experts and the complete lack of concern by decision-makers.
The deep concern by experts and the complete lack of concern by decision-makers.
The official line: #Jordan has overcome more difficult challenges in the past, its people are steadfast, the kingdom is strong and we will overcome future challenges.
Basically, their plan is #Jordanian exceptionalism.
Basically, their plan is #Jordanian exceptionalism.
The constant bail-outs by Gulf states and the #US (as well as aid from #EU and IMF, World Bank loans) has shielded #Jordan from the harsh economic and geopolitical realities that have devastated nearby countries and has created a false sense of security in #Amman.
Part of this reasoning is: #Jordan is important to the international community, they won’t let us down (and haven't yet).
But one doesn’t have to look too far in the past (#Afghanistan ) to see #US lack of reliability and the fickleness of the international community.
But one doesn’t have to look too far in the past (#Afghanistan ) to see #US lack of reliability and the fickleness of the international community.
Should the perfect storm of a shift in geopolitical priorities and global economic hardships strike, #Jordan won’t be high on anyone’s priorities.
Which takes us back to this fundamental, unanswered question: what are your plans if international help is not coming?
Which takes us back to this fundamental, unanswered question: what are your plans if international help is not coming?
I should say that #Jordan expertly navigated the #COVID19 pandemic, but this came at the cost of pushing debt levels to record highs.
The shocks from the #Russia-#Ukraine war are set to hit MENA countries from multiple directions (food prices, energy, fiscal policy)....
The shocks from the #Russia-#Ukraine war are set to hit MENA countries from multiple directions (food prices, energy, fiscal policy)....
...and #Jordan can’t afford to repeat its 2020-21 #COVID19 strategy.
And #Jordan-ians, by and large, are worse off economically now than they were in March 2020.
The personal reserves that got people by the past two years has dwindled. Now costs of many goods are set to rise.
And #Jordan-ians, by and large, are worse off economically now than they were in March 2020.
The personal reserves that got people by the past two years has dwindled. Now costs of many goods are set to rise.
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