Thread by @Taylor_Luck

I love it how veteran American journalists are now re-discovering #Jordan after a decades-long absence and writing as if it is still 1980, 1991 or 1999.

#الأردن #الامير_حمزه

It highlights a deep lack of understanding of how the #Jordan has evolved under the reign of King Abdullah.

No, East Bank tribes are no longer a monolith and neither are its leaders. A new political-economic elite have risen. Even balance of power in old institutions has shifted

People seem to also missing the point that the #Jordan opposition has been politically decimated or coopted.

There are no real political actors on the ground. Even social actors such as tribes have been divided (many say, on purpose by the state).

The fact of the matter is there is no trust in institutions, the state, the government, parliament, political parties or even social groups. Resentment and envy are high. Everyone thinks practically everyone else is corrupt.

This is the true lurking danger in #Jordan

As a journalist, checking in with your elite friends, wealthy figures and allies of the late King Hussein is fine. Going to your now-retired security sources is fine.

But acting like they are representative of #Jordan-ian society today is a grave mistake.

This is why many of the readings of the current 'crisis' in #Jordan from the #US are like a time-warp, unearthed time capsules from the 1980s and 90s that to someone living and covering the country for the last 14 years look like museum exhibit panels rather than news columns.

Exhibit 1: acting like tribe/minority background of senior officials is somehow an indicator of the person's background, allegiance, popularity and actions.

Nope, the political-economic elite are often removed from their roots, living in #Amman bubbles. Many face ire from family

over policies they support or carry out.

"You've forgotten us" or "you've forgotten where you come from" is a common phrase people say to relatives who are ministers/MPs/officials.

They point to poverty, unemployment and lack of services in home villages as proof

#Jordan

Exhibit 2: East Bank tribes all feel one way, and current events will affect their behavior.

Hate to break it to you, but some tribes are suspicious of others. Tribal leadership has been changed by hand-selected alternatives by the state. Often, you have rival sheikhs....

...or family branches of the same tribe compete with one another or face two extreme realities. For example, one part of the tribe can be excluded and in poverty, the other enriched and "in" with the state.

Tribes may have been unified in the 90s, but no longer.

#Jordan #الأردن

In fact, if you listen closely to some of the tribal criticism in #Jordan, it is not just that tribes have been marginalized, it's been "the *real* tribal leaders" have been marginalized and replaced with yes-men, which they claim has allowed mismanagement and corruption to grow.

Exhibit 3: Palestinian-Tribal balance can push #Jordan into chaos and instability at any moment.

This narrative is often pushed to as an excuse not to enact long-delayed political reform.

Fact is, families have inter-married, and most agree on: two-state solution, support for..

the Hashemite royal family. Both "sides" are frustrated with corruption, economic malaise. Protestors of both origin have been cracked down on.

Difference is, *some* tribal #Jordan-ians can rely on help of family to get them out of trouble. Some. Not many.

Another aspect missed by Western journalism's hibernation on #Jordan: region has completely changed, affecting and dictating the kingdom's economic and political choices.

First, the loss of cheap oil and major trade partner of #Iraq due to.....#US #Iraq war in 2003

Second: 'peace process' with #Israel went south due to bloody second intifada, rise of far-right dominance of #Israel-i politics.

There was no economic dividends in peace with #Israel. Example: #Israel sending vaccines all across the world while their neighbor has shortages.

Third: Loss of cheap natural gas for electricity generation due to the 2011 toppling of #Mubarak.

The Iraq war, followed by Arab Spring robbed #Jordan of two of its strongest Arab political allies in succession

Fourth: #Syria-n civil war.

#US humming and hawing on getting involved or not, half-baked attempts at supporting revolutionaries, left #Jordan holding the bag.

US officials said "only a couple of months" on refugee presence. Guys, its been a decade.

Fifth: Change in #Saudi leadership, oil price drop and a re-evaluation in the Gulf on the 'returns' it was getting for constantly bailing out #Jordan and other Arab allies

So #Jordan has been left with an additional 800,000- 1.5 million population increase (depending on your reading of stats) of refugees from #Iraq and #Syria.

It has been stripped of all sources of external support both economic and political.

So of course, #Jordan's leadership has had to make different choices and has had less options in its 'tool box' in weathering the past 15 years.

And many of these difficulties were brought on by #US regional policies themselves

So, while I have been loving the nostalgia trips in news columns and articles from the #US- it's two completely different #Jordan's

These pieces are also repeating a romanticized, impossible vision 'what if' of alternative leadership that is, quite frankly, pure fiction.

I'm not excusing the corruption, speech crackdowns, and bullheaded commitment by #Jordan govts to economic policies that have favored the rich.

But some core drivers of the change in average #Jordan-ians economic fortunes has to be recognized for what they are: external driven.

Reading these nostalgic pieces by #US journalists, it is as if I am sitting with a 60-year-old tribal sheikh or an out-of-favor courtier pining for King Hussein's years.

That, to me, is misleading. And hurtful since #Jordan-ians are now relying on foreign media for their news