Short summary of the military situation in Ukraine (March 13) ๐๐งต
Situation in North around Kyiv remains relatively stable with limited ๐ท๐บ progress.
Attention needs to be paid to South and East were ๐บ๐ฆ forces are increasingly in danger of getting cut off.
(map: @War_Mapper)
Situation in North around Kyiv remains relatively stable with limited ๐ท๐บ progress.
Attention needs to be paid to South and East were ๐บ๐ฆ forces are increasingly in danger of getting cut off.
(map: @War_Mapper)
Pay attention to red arrows in South (Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia + Wolnowacha) and East (Losowa and Barwenkowo) in the map above. From day 1 of the war potential encirclement/cut off of ๐บ๐ฆ forces east of Dnpr was a real danger.
https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1497536957383163910?s=20&t=vvKQeAnCwN-8PumjDXD0-A
Exact strength/progress of ๐ท๐บ advances is unclear. 2 major questions. 1: can Russian forces maintain momentum and succeed without large follow-on forces? 2: can ๐บ๐ฆ fight delaying actions and retreat in orderly manner or withdraw to urban centers to attrite ๐ท๐บ forces from there?
Shelling of Mykolaiv in South and Kharkiv in Northeast continues. Push toward Odessa likely. Re. situation in Kyiv: Ukrainian defenses remain intact, but ๐ท๐บ pressure (firepower) is increasing. h/t @IAPonomarenko
Note axis of attack #3 has not materialized.
๐บ๐ฆ forces have reportedly counter-attacked in Northeast (unclear how successful); ๐ท๐บ are still attempting to encircle Chernihiv. Just to clarify from yesterday's๐งต: I still don't think the Russians want to engage in heavy urban combat in any of the cities.
https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1502547788743204870?s=20&t=JiWk-aLK4BEcOtjQw1oRaw
Addendum: Figures below are rough estimates. Units can fight on w. 50%+ casualties too. Depends on timeframe losses occur/morale & how quickly units can regroup. 1 wounded can temporally take out 2 other riflemen(~37% fire power loss in squad).
https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1502547802030759946?s=20&t=R6Ac4WX9Ocm1vQNp9sw__w
Operational picture of air domain remains murky. The fact that TB2s are still operational at the stage of the war is not something I would have predicted. Exact impact of TBs2 is unclear.
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1502786913287258117?s=20&t=ioBZC6ibNJYu335FU-0m3Q
TB2 strikes reportedly destroyed over 40 Russian systems/equipment to date. ๐
"Listing Russian Army Equipment Destroyed By Bayraktar TB2s" oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/defendโฆ
"Listing Russian Army Equipment Destroyed By Bayraktar TB2s" oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/defendโฆ
Major equipment losses:
๐ท๐บ - 1149, of which: destroyed: 482, damaged: 14, abandoned: 174, captured: 479
๐บ๐ฆ- 323, of which: destroyed: 121, damaged: 5, abandoned: 45, captured: 152
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attackโฆ
(via @oryxspioenkop)
๐ท๐บ - 1149, of which: destroyed: 482, damaged: 14, abandoned: 174, captured: 479
๐บ๐ฆ- 323, of which: destroyed: 121, damaged: 5, abandoned: 45, captured: 152
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attackโฆ
(via @oryxspioenkop)
The human costs and sufferings of this war are ever increasing. So many innocent lives senselessly lost; so many futures destroyed. What an absolute tragedy.
https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa/status/1502757477712027654?s=20&t=HU2YuMmk19uEY6myTeFAlg
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