Thread by @AuroraIntel

Thread - War between Wars - tiny bit of the details.

Alright - this will probably be a tad ramlbe-ish as I put together some of what I believe key pieces that have lead us to last nights missile strike on #Erbil, some of the threads included delve

This small thread will be high level but it’ll just look at some of the larger incidents over the recent period to take into consideration that last nights strike on Erbil wasn’t just a random incident but part of a “bigger picture”, this will focus mainly on Israel/Iran

We start with some of the recent history, the tussle of tankers, the shift tides, which appears to be moving from the deep sea incidents to more on shore. The move of “on shoring” events shows we have gone full circle to using the supply chains through air and land. But…

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1475788182474174471

The circle did change slightly in the respect that the reportedly Israeli strikes were conducted at the Latakia Port, usually an area “avoided” by Israel due to the proxy of Russian assets, but we saw two strikes in close timeline here;

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1476208856007155713

Palmyra - This event saw Iran (and its proxies) stick to the line of “Israel and the US are one” (paraphrased). The reported IDF airstrike was responded to by a loitering munition/suicide drone attack on Al-Tanf Garrison. This was a new addition to the equation.

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1449774316787228679

Damascus - in the last few weeks, the killing of the two IRGC personnel from the reported airstrike. A rare case, often it’s the proxies, more often than not it appears to be Fatemiyoun members.

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1501265793761304579

The example of Fatemiyoun;

https://twitter.com/auroraintel/status/1336743837247676417

SSM Production - An explosion in September 2021 at a SSM production site in Iran. Firstly reported as a fire at an IRGC facility.

https://twitter.com/imagesatintl/status/1443632921701720074

February 14th - a fire reported at an Iranian UAV facility. Now potentially being attributed as the reason as to why the missile attack was conducted.

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1494764637044322321

going a little older - Mohsen Fakhrizadeh’s assassination. Throughout all of these tit for tat scenarios, there doesn’t feel like there has been an actual response for this, but as stated by Iran at the time, they will choose the time and place for the response.

JCPOA renewal attempt 386537523 - Not sure how I feel about what sort of impact this has, it has some, but some would argue it has more than others and people will say vice versa, it reminds to be seen.

The wider picture - Yemen/Lebanon/Gaza, these all play their own part as well, continued pressure from all of Iran’s proxies.

If we broaden away from just Israel/Iran some more (onto of the JCPOA piece, I know that’s bigger than Israel/Iran) there are the other events that of course come into attack, rockets/drones on Erbil/Baghdad, missile/drone attacks in Saudi/UAE.

This thread only touches on a tiny portion of all the events on going but those that I believe things that are key in relation to last night.

I just read through what I typed, ramble level 1000+ but hopefully it gives you things to consider and look at. Also, typos, nevermind.