Ted Darling Profile picture
Mar 14 โ€ข 11 tweets โ€ข 3 min read
Hello Monday!

Big week

Not only are the Ides upon us, but we have both #FOMC and #OPEX to process.

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Mixed ๐Ÿ‘œ in Asia as ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ and ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ ๐Ÿ”’ โ†˜๏ธ ๐Ÿฆ 

$NIKK 25308 +0.6%
$SSEC 3224 -2.6% ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ
$TWII 17263 unch
$HSI 19541 -4.95% ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ
$KOSPI 2646 -0.6%
$IDX 6952 +0.45%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7149 +1.2%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 59215 +1.2%
Europe opens with a โ†—๏ธ bias

$DAX 13872 +1.8%
$FTSE 7150 -0.05%
$CAC 6288 +0.45%
$AEX 672 -0.45%
$IBEX 8264 +1.5%
$MIB 23313 +1.2%
$SMI 11517 +0.2%
$MOEX closed for ๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿช†
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ futures modestly โ†—๏ธ

$ES 4224 +0.5%
$NQ 13316 +0.1%
$RTY 1988 +0.3%

$VIX 31.17 ๐Ÿ›—
Metals under pressure โ†˜๏ธ

$GOLD 1976 -0.45%
$SILVER 25892 -1.0%
$COPPER 4.547 -1.7%
$PLAT 1067 -1.9%
$PALL 26167 -0.45%
$ALI 3507 -0.15%
$ZINC 3851 +0.1%
Hydrocarbons โ†˜๏ธ

$WTIC 106.11 -2.85%
$BRENT 110.02 -2.35%
$GASO 3.237 -2.25%
$NATGAS 4.617 -2.3%
Grains mostly โ†˜๏ธ in the early go

$WHEAT 1091 -1.35%
$CORN 756 -0.7%
$SOYB 1683 +0.4% โฌ…๏ธ
$SUGAR 19.05 -0.95%

โ˜•๏ธ 221.23
$USD โ†˜๏ธ vs. risk #fx

$EUR 1.959 +0.46%
$GBP 1.3046 +0.08%
$AUD 0.726 -0.42%
$USD 98.9 -0.3%
$USDJPY 117.71 +0.36% โฌ…๏ธ cycle high
$USDCHF 0.935 +0.09%
$USDRUB 114.986 +0.64%
#cryptocurrency โ†”๏ธ

$BTC 39.061 unch
$ETH 2592 +0.45%
USTs โ†—๏ธ across the curve AND trading at cycle highs
10/2s

2Y 1.791 +0.041
5Y 2.053 +0.046
10Y 2.053 +0.047
20Y 2.493 +0.042 โฌ…๏ธ
30Y 2.413 +0.049

Global 10Ys โ†—๏ธ across the ๐ŸŒ
Noting this break โ†—๏ธ in UST yields to cycle highs is significant. $TLT buyers ๐Ÿ”ฅ

Market expecting 25 BPS #FOMC hike, but what about #QT? ๐Ÿคจ

If IVOL comes out of options, maybe we get โž•๐ŸŒŠ from #OPEX. Not yet evident

Be โš ๏ธ and have a super ๐Ÿ’ฐ profitable day!

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @tdarling1

Mar 13
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review 03/13/22

1/11

Focus on whatโ€™s working - long #inflation ๐Ÿ›ข, #vol ๐ŸŒŠ, and long USD ๐Ÿ’ต

Nothing says these will continue to work, given the geopolitical risk ๐Ÿ’ฅโ˜ฎ๏ธ

But, what choice do you have? Fade it?

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/11

Metals โ†”๏ธ on the week but โ™‰๏ธ -
giving you opportunity long side

$COPPER -6.3%
$PLAT -2.55%
$GOLD +0.95%
$SILVER +1.45%

Chart: $SILVER +11.95% t, +17.85% T, vol 53 (3.3%)๐Ÿ”ป
3/11

Hydrocarbons โ™‰๏ธ pulled back sharply = more opportunity long ๐Ÿ›ขโ›ฝ๏ธ

$GASO -7.35%
$NATGAS -6.0%
$WTIC -5.5%
$BRENT -4.2%

Chart: $DBC +12.28% t, +27.75% (T), vol 50 (3.1%) is over extended but a lower vol way to play commodities
Read 11 tweets
Mar 10
Hello Thursday!

Did everyone enjoy the 1-day โ™‰๏ธ in equities and rejoice in the ๐Ÿป in commodities?

Or, โ€ฆ

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Trading on a one-day lag, Asia closed โ†—๏ธ

$NIKK 25690 +3.95% โฌ…๏ธ
$SSEC 3296 +1.2%
$TWII 17433 +2.45%
$HSI 20890 +1.25%
$KOSPI 2680 +2.2%
$IDX 6924 +0.85%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7131 +1.1%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 55464 +1.5%
Europe back to ๐Ÿปโ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 13489 -2.6%
$FTSE 7101 -1.25%
$CAC 6232 -2.45%
$AEX 678 -1.5%
$IBEX 8058 -1.5%
$MIB 23138 -3.15%
$SMI 114667 -0.2%
$MOEX closed ๐Ÿช†

$VSOTXX 41.50 ๐Ÿ”ป
Read 11 tweets
Mar 9
Hello ๐Ÿซ day!

And what a classic ๐Ÿซ day it is!
First equity ๐Ÿป get ๐Ÿซ along with CRB โ™‰๏ธ
And thenโ€ฆ

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia closed โ†”๏ธ

$NIKK 24718 -0.3%
$SSEC 3256 -1.15% โฌ…๏ธ
$TWII 17015 +1.15% โฌ…๏ธ
$HSI 20628 -0.65%
$KOSPI closed for ๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ
$IDX 6864 +0.75%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7053 +1.05%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 54647 +2.05%
Europe with a ๐Ÿป market ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿš€

$DAX 13443 +4.75%
$FTSE 7066 +1.45%
$CAC 6225 +4.4%
$AEX 679 +3.45%
$IBEX 8003 +2.8%
$MIB 23417 +4.85%
$SMI 11312 +2.3%
$MOEX closed for ๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 45.56 ๐Ÿ”ป
Read 12 tweets
Mar 8
Hello Tuesday from ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ!

The $VIX spiked to the top end of the BB while the $SPX sank to the bottom, and for once the big #dix at 42.1 were not buyers. Is big money now the contra indicator?

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
No relief for late to the ๐Ÿป๐Ÿช… Asian equities โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 24791 -1.7%
$SSEC 6980 -0.85%
$TWII 16825 -2.05%
$HSI 20766 -1.4%
$KOSPI 2622 -1.1%
$IDEX 6814 -0.8%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 6930 -0.85%

India trading โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 53424 +1.1% โฌ…๏ธ
Europe ๐Ÿ€ โ†—๏ธ mid-morning

$DAX 12941 +0.8%
$DTSE 6963 +0.05%
$CAC 6057 +1.25%
$AEX 660 -1.35%
$IBEX 7844 +2.6%
$MIB 22694 +2.4%
$SMI 11101 -0.9%
$MOEX closed ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 48.24 โฌ…๏ธ
implied moves of +/- 3%
Read 11 tweets
Mar 1
Hello Tuesday and the 1st of March!
๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฐ

Big spike โ†—๏ธ in #inflation assets last month with ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ +8.6%, ๐ŸŒพ +22.7%, and ๐Ÿฅ‡ +5.8% - pushing $CRB +5.47% to a new cycle high

Let's dig into the early March ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia โ†—๏ธ unfazed by ๐Ÿช†๐Ÿ’ฅ

$NIKK 26845 +1.2%
$SSEC 3489 +0.75%
$TWII 17898 +1.4%
$HSI 22762 +0.2%
$KOSPI 2699 +0.85%
$IDX 6921 +0.5%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7096 +0.65%

India closed

Chart: $SSEC +3.0% in February ๐Ÿ’ช
On the other โœ‹, Europe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ pummeled โ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 14131 -2.3%
$FTSE 7402 -0.75%
$CAC 6501 -2.35%
$AEX 719 +1.5%
$IBEX 8349 -1.5%
$MIB 24877 -2.1%
$SMI 11825 -1.35%
$MOEX ๐Ÿช† closed

$VSTOXX 35.29 ๐Ÿ”บ

Chart: $DAX ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช -6.53% in February ๐Ÿป
Read 11 tweets
Feb 28
Hello Monday! ๐ŸŽข

What a month February has been!
$SSEC +2.7%
$SPX -2.9%
$DAX -5.05%

$GOLD +5.1%
$WTIC +3.9%
$WHEAT +12.9%

$USD +0.08%

$VIX 27.59 +257 BPS

$TNX 1.986% +25.7 BPS

Let's dig into Monday
Asian equities closed โ†—๏ธ

$NIKK 26527 +0.2%
$SSEC 3462 +0.3%
$TWII 17652 +0.35%
$HSI 22713 -0.25% โฌ…๏ธ
$KOSPI 2699 +0.85%
$IDX 6888 +1.05%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 12431 +0.1%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 56131 +0.5%
Europe under ๐Ÿช†๐Ÿป pressure โ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 15225 -2.35%
$FTSE 7385 -1.4%
$CAC 6564 -2.8%
$AEX 716 -1.6%
$IBEX 8381 -1.25%
$MIB 25125 -1.25%
$SMI 11908 -0.65%

$MOEX closed as Russia CB raises interest rates to 20% ๐Ÿ˜ฑ
Read 11 tweets

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