The war in #Ukraine has severed all meaningful U.S.-#Russia diplomatic contact, & the same for #Europe.
#Moscow is more likely than ever to veto cross-border aid at the UNSC in July & #Syria's wheat supplies are lower than ever -- a famine in 2022 is now very much on the cards.
Amid a severing of diplomatic contact w. #Russia (except for #JCPOA talks), x2 officials tell me #Moscow has stopped answering the #Syria deconfliction line -- and x1 U.S. DOD official confirmed #Russia has resumed "unsafe and unprofessional" actions around U.S. forces in the NE.
"#Assad has survived — but he stands atop the ruins of a state," & #Russia's war in #Ukraine looks set to make him "acutely vulnerable."
#Syria's 2022 wheat crop is expected to be 25% of its average; #Russia supplies are off; the SYP is spiraling & even the @WFP can't help.
@WFP To adapt, a "freeze & build" strategy would "pivot away from tactical emergency assistance & toward strategic stabilization and targeted rebuilding across areas of northern #Syria not controlled by #Assad’s regime."
Hard yes, but not impossible.
Status quo = guaranteed failure.
@WFP A "freeze & build" strategy would require north-wide sanctions waivers, close coordination w. #Turkey & a bold shift in mentality -- less tents, blankets & food baskets and more semi-permanent housing, investment for small business/agriculture & sustainable resources like solar."
@WFP "A “freeze and build” strategy would not be a policy of partition & it would not consider UNSCR 2254 dead or weaken international commitment to it. In fact, it would strengthen international resolve & increase leverage to pursue UNSCR 2254’s goals" -- when conditions to so arise.
@WFP With conflict lines already frozen & diplomacy all but dead [for now], the time has come for the US & allies to build credible alternative/s across northern #Syria - to do good for millions of civilians in need & to enhance credibility & leverage over a vulnerable #Assad/#Russia.
@WFP There's *a lot* to unpack, in terms of #Ukraine's impact on #Syria & the opportunities it gives for a strategic pivot to a more meaningful & sustainable policy.
Current policy was unlikely to work before, but it's guaranteed to fail now -- time to adapt:
#Israel's intervention in #Suwayda has completely backfired, with #Jerusalem now signaling it wants #Syria's gov't to go back in to restore order amid huge tribal mobilization.
#Israel's approach to post-#Assad #Syria has never been strategic & the last week shows that palpably.
By intervening, #Israel (1) exacerbated #Suwayda's intra-#Druze divisions; (2) fueled (by 1,000x) Sunni Arab hostility to #Druze calls for decentralization; (3) triggered a nationwide tribal mobilization that's now advancing; & (4) placed #Druze civilians in far greater danger.
Let's get something very clear -- crimes/violations have been committed by all sides (gov't forces, tribes/Bedouin, #Druze militias).
There was never a "pure" side here & by stirring the pot, #Israel poured gallons of fuel onto the fire -- for crimes to simply intensify.
#Syria's SW province of #Suwayda has seen 5 days of chaotic, complex conflict now -- but as with previous bouts of hostilities in recent months, the information space has been plagued by disinformation, conflicting information & fast-changing developments.
What's happened, a 🧵:
Late on July 11, Bedouin gunmen ambushed a vegetable truck on the #Damascus-#Suwayda highway, beating the driver & stealing the truck & its contents.
The next day, #Druze gunmen kidnapped 8 Bedouins as retaliation, triggering Bedouin gunmen to kidnap 5 #Druze in response.
July 12 saw a flurry of tit-for-tat kidnappings, amid attempts by local notables to negotiate a calm-down.
Tensions & conflict between Bedouin clans & #Druze militia in #Suwayda dates back years -- tied to the drugs & weapons trade, control of smuggling routes & land ownership.
Last night, Saraya Ansar al-Sunna claimed responsibility for the suicide bombing that killed 25 people at the St Elias Church outside #Damascus on Sunday.
This is a group with a murky history -- a 🧵
Ansar al-Sunna first emerged in the public on Feb 1, 2025 -- claiming responsibility for massacring ~12 Alawites in #Hama several days earlier.
But the group was formed in June 2024 (~6months pre-#Assad's fall) in #Idlib by #HTS defectors & operatives aligned with Huras al-Din.
At least 3 Ansar al-Sunna operatives were detained by #HTS's General Security Service in October 2024 -- they were deemed to be an #ISIS sleeper cell.
GSS interrogations revealed communication with militants in Deir ez Zour.
What's happening in #Syria's #Druze-majority governorate of #Suwayda?
A 🧵:
Last night, almost all of #Suwayda's #Druze religious, civil & military leaders agreed a deal w. #Damascus to begin a gradual integration of #Syria's Interior Ministry, by folding #Druze militias into the "Public Security" force -- & later, more into the Defense Ministry.
This morning, that deal began moving -- with ~700 #Druze militiamen fast-tracked into a #Suwayda-specific Public Security force responsible for security in the (a) capital & (b) border areas. ~1,300 more men are in process to join too.
Amid hostilities in #Sahnaya, let's get one thing straight -- this is *not* a "gov't vs. Druze" conflict. By any means.
#Syria's Druze are extremely divided -- especially the clerics.
And more than any other actor, #Israel is preying on that division.
While some #Druze clerics (like Hijri) appear determined to hold hard against #Damascus, others (like Hinawi & Jarbou) seem determined to find a middle ground compromise.
Then there's Druze in #Israel (working with the IDF) & in #Lebanon (backing #Damascus).
The most powerful #Druze militias (Rijal al-Karama, Ahrar al-Jabal etc) -- HQ'd in #Suwayda -- have signed a framework security agreement with #Damascus & work jointly with the Interior Ministry. They worked together to end fighting in #Jaramana & same overnight in Sahnaya.
When it comes to reports of a US military withdrawal from #Syria, there are many moving parts in play, but it's clearly coming.
The US military's decisive shift in posture & priorities post-#Assad offered the clearest evidence. A 🧵:
Since #Assad fell in Dec 2024, the US military has established relations with #Damascus & proactively facilitated & pushed talks between the #SDF & #Syria's new gov't.
For CENTCOM: the #SDF *must* integrate into the new #Syria.
The March 10 framework agreement signed by #Syria President Ahmed al-Sharaa & #SDF leader Mazloum Abdi was a direct result of US mediation -- and from March 6, of *intense* pressure on the #SDF (by @CENTCOM's Gen Kurilla & @CJTFOIR's MG Leahy).