Thread by @Charles_Lister

NEW -- #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine has killed #Syria diplomacy & will trigger an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.

To adapt to this challenge, I propose a bold new approach -- "Freeze and Build" -- focusing more strategically on aid/stabilization:

mei.edu/publications/f…

The war in #Ukraine has severed all meaningful U.S.-#Russia diplomatic contact, & the same for #Europe.

#Moscow is more likely than ever to veto cross-border aid at the UNSC in July & #Syria's wheat supplies are lower than ever -- a famine in 2022 is now very much on the cards.

Amid a severing of diplomatic contact w. #Russia (except for #JCPOA talks), x2 officials tell me #Moscow has stopped answering the #Syria deconfliction line -- and x1 U.S. DOD official confirmed #Russia has resumed "unsafe and unprofessional" actions around U.S. forces in the NE.

"#Assad has survived — but he stands atop the ruins of a state," & #Russia's war in #Ukraine looks set to make him "acutely vulnerable."

#Syria's 2022 wheat crop is expected to be 25% of its average; #Russia supplies are off; the SYP is spiraling & even the @WFP can't help.

@WFP To adapt, a "freeze & build" strategy would "pivot away from tactical emergency assistance & toward strategic stabilization and targeted rebuilding across areas of northern #Syria not controlled by #Assad’s regime."

Hard yes, but not impossible.

Status quo = guaranteed failure.

@WFP A "freeze & build" strategy would require north-wide sanctions waivers, close coordination w. #Turkey & a bold shift in mentality -- less tents, blankets & food baskets and more semi-permanent housing, investment for small business/agriculture & sustainable resources like solar."

@WFP "A “freeze and build” strategy would not be a policy of partition & it would not consider UNSCR 2254 dead or weaken international commitment to it. In fact, it would strengthen international resolve & increase leverage to pursue UNSCR 2254’s goals" -- when conditions to so arise.

@WFP With conflict lines already frozen & diplomacy all but dead [for now], the time has come for the US & allies to build credible alternative/s across northern #Syria - to do good for millions of civilians in need & to enhance credibility & leverage over a vulnerable #Assad/#Russia.

@WFP There's *a lot* to unpack, in terms of #Ukraine's impact on #Syria & the opportunities it gives for a strategic pivot to a more meaningful & sustainable policy.

Current policy was unlikely to work before, but it's guaranteed to fail now -- time to adapt:

mei.edu/publications/f…