Janis Kluge Profile picture
Mar 16 6 tweets 3 min read
How can we reduce #Russia's energy revenue while keeping the #EU energy market stable? EU politicians are torn between popular outrage over high prices and calls to increase pressure on Russia. But there is a solution: Import price caps on Russian energy. [1/6]
#Italy has already started this discussion with regards to gas, and it is gaining momentum. Basically, a price cap makes it illegal to pay more than a price X for importing Russian gas, oil or coal. [2/6] bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
With a price cap on Russian energy, Europe ideally gets to have its cake and eat it too: #Russia's energy revenues would shrink, similar to a partial energy #embargo. At the same time, supply of energy to the #EU - and also to the rest of the world - would remain intact. [3/6]
How would #Russia react? With regards to #gas, it can either sell for a lower price, or stop selling, and lose the remaining revenue. There is a risk for economically irrational behavior, but the more urgently Russia needs dollars, the more likely it is to continue supply. [4/6]
For #oil, the same is true to a lesser degree: Russia could stop supplying oil through its Druzhba pipeline (in the process cutting off Russian-owned refinery in Schwedt) and ship the oil somewhere else. But especially under EU&US sanctions, this is a logistical nightmare. [5/6]
Much would depend on the specifics of the price cap and there are complicated legal questions to resolve. But given the dilemma EU (especially German) policy-makers are in right now, it needs to be seriously considered. [6/6]

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More from @jakluge

Mar 13
#Sanctions will not rally Russians behind #Putin. The reason is that the Russian regime always needs to convey strength. So the propaganda message on Russian state TV will be: "All is good, we are in control, minor turbulences, nothing serious." [1/4]
But it will be evident to most Russians in a year or two that all is not good, not at all. At that point, propaganda becomes counterproductive: Russians will feel that their problems are not taken seriously, that the government is actually mocking them and their suffering. [2/4] Image
The sanctions will thus become problematic for #Putin, because they sabotage his narrative of ultimate power and control. He can either choose to look weak, having failed to protect Russia against the West - or look completely detached from economic reality. [3/4]
Read 4 tweets
Feb 26
Thread: The latest round of sanctions is very tough. Taken together, the #sanctions of the last days will almost certainly cause a deep economic crisis in Russia. It will take a few days or weeks to unfold, so let's hope it will not be too late. ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Paralyzing #Russia's Central Bank reserves is a smart move that will make it much harder for Russia to absorb the shock of the other sanctions. Remember: Reserves, gold etc. are no protection against this caliber of sanctions, they help only in less severe situations.
SWIFT: selected banks makes sense at this point. Gas/oil will be exempt for now, but: It doesn't change the picture as much as one might think. In a year, Russia makes 100s of billions from oil/gas, but in the next days, revenue will be negligible compared to the sanctions pain.
Read 9 tweets

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