Pavel Mayer Profile picture
Mar 17 24 tweets 4 min read
In the 1960/70s the extreme political left sided with the communist bloc and rallied against the U.S. government war efforts in Vietnam; today the extreme right sympathizes with Putin, helps to disseminate Russian propaganda and rallies against Ukraine support.
The symbol Z, which would be like western military marking heir vehicles with Ж or З, is a bit weird, but ok, it’s a symbol. Having normal people in Russia including children put it on their clothes and cars etc. reminds of the use of the swastika in Nazi Germany though.
Both together, use of the same symbol on military vehicles and have civilians wearing it, reminds more of the use of the swastika by SS-troups on vehicles rather than the regular Wehrmacht troups, although the Luftwaffe used randomly swastikas on planes. Am I overthinking this?
And then there is this novel figure called “Zorro”, fox in Spanish, from black-and-white TV shows when I was a kid. A rich guy who in his spare time puts on mask and cape and goes rebel vigilante, and marks his victims with a Z, cut into their skin with a swift move of a rapier.
Just wondering what kind of shit they were airing on German national TV when I was a kid. Guess it was ok for kids because it was swift; had he done it slowly with a knife, it would have been unsuitable for kids I guess.
So there might be a lesson here, also for Putin: If you do cruel shit, quickness matters. You do it swiftly, even kids can watch it. You take too much time, even hard-boiled politicians are horrified.
And then you’ve got Putin talking about denazification of Ukraine, an autocratic Russian ruler, who acts a lot like a fascist, but claims to be anti-fascist and anti-Nazi, but is liked by Neonazis and other right wing extremists all around the world,…
…but also people from the left who haven’t figured out that Russia isn’t communist any more, and only because he used to be some KGB-buerocrat, he is not a fellow comrade, and never was.
So we have a former KGB guy behaving like a Fascist, claiming to hunt Neonazis led by a Jew, supported by confused right wing and left wing fundamentalist and extremists and pacifist in the West, and then there is Israel, home to a millions Jews from Russia and Ukraine,…
…self-proclaimed protector of all jews world-wide, also in Russia and Ukraine, caught in the middle of the conflict, being one of last safe havens for Russian oligarchs and their money. Israel has given more than 30 Russian oligarchs or tycoons citizenship,
…among them Abramovitch, who came there a few days ago with his private jet, but supposedly moved on. The U.S. are pretty pissed right now because Israel has not joined the sanctions and also refuses to deliver any military equipment, even not vests or helmets,…
…but Israel supposedly sent a lot of equipment to treat wounded. In the U.S. now the term “ungrateful ally” for Israel has resurfaced, and calls for diverting all funds for support of Israel to Ukraine are being made.
This is all very dangerous for Israel, but this is what you get when you have a corrupt government that invites Russian influence agents a.k.a. oligarchs and confuse them with normal billionaires who actually own their money.
These Russian oligarchs do not really own their property; it is all just props for their role as influence agents, and linked to their tenure, as a normal official does not own his office. Oligarchs who forget that are swiftly stripped of all money, freedom and maybe their life.
It is not just dangerous for Israel’s security, but directly fuels anti-jewish sentiments with stereotypes about rich jews pulling strings and having no moral principles, as if other super-rich were morally superior, but when rich Jews do bad stuff, people prefer…
…to attribute that to their jewishness instead of seeing them as rich assholes first.

In Germany the Green party, founded by pacifists, is overseeing the largest rearmament since the cold war and is sending weapons into a warzone, something Germans had a firm policy against.
But despite all the political labeling and mislabeling, in this case it is pretty easy to see who the good guys and who the bad buys are. This was more difficult with the Coalition of the willing against Irak, where you had bad guys on both sides.
In this case Russia and Putin do not have a leg to stand on; Putin started the war in 2014 can not use anything that happened since as justification for his invasion Ok, obviously he can, but it makes him look stupid,..
…like Bush and Co. became the laughstock of the the world when there were no weapon of mass destruction. There are surely violent and real Neo-Nazis to be found in the Ukraine, but how is that Russia’s business? Neo-Nazis are not in charge in Ukraine.
Putin also tried to play the terrorists card, like the U.S. justified attacking Afghanistan because it was supposedly harboring Bin-Laden. I hoped the U.S. would not do it because it was obviously stupid and played right into Bin-Ladens hands, who was hiding in Pakistan anyway.
It cost the U.S. trillions in the end, fueled wars and violence for decades with nothing to show in the end, and morally corrupted the U.S. even more, turning them into bad guys and torturing war criminals, so they have trouble now to call Putin the war criminal he is without…
…exposing themselves to be held accountable as war criminals, too, which they should. However, in order to make the terrorist hunting story believable Putin would have had to blow up appartment buildings in Moscow again like he did to justify the 2nd Chechen war, or ….
…commit some other atrocities and blame them on Ukraine, but he failed to pull that off or didn’t deem it necessary. Now the whole thing will ruin Russia and be regarded as one of the greatest blunders in Russian history.
In this 3rd world war we are already in, no country will be able to stay on the sidelines, and you don’t want to be on the losers side, which is going to be Russia. Putin did not just screw up the military campaign, but he also already lost on the media front. Irreversibly.

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More from @pavel23

Mar 19
Nachdem der vorige Thread mit dem für Putin bestmöglichen Szenario endete, das ich mir vorstellen kann, nun ein Hirngespinst über das bestmögliche für "uns", die NATO und den Großteil der Welt, einschließlich Russland.
Bis zu diesem Punkt verläuft die Entwicklung noch parallel; Ich kann mir bis da hin keinen anderen Verlauf plausiblen Verlauf vorstellen, der nicht irgend ein völlig überraschendes, unvorhersehbares Ereignis enthält und alles auf den Kopf stellt, ...
...wie Szelenskiys Auftritt in den ersten Kriegstagen. :-)
Inzwischen gibt es aber viele Dinge, die geschehen sind, viele Köpfe auf der ganzen Welt haben darüber nachgedacht, ihre Expertise, Meinung und Erwartungen geäußert, und bekannte Fakten sind in einem neuen Licht...
Read 24 tweets
Mar 19
Zum Schluss noch ein paar phantasievolle Überlegungen, wie es weitergehen kann und was die NATO tun und lassen sollte. Es schließt an diesen Thread an:
Aus den bisherigen Ausführungen ergibt sich, dass die NATO alles lassen sollte, das dazu führt, dass NATO und Russland in der Luft oder auf See direkt aufeinander schießen, und insbesondere keine NATO-Truppenverbände in die Ukraine zu schicken. Das wäre ein Geschenk an Putin.
Das muss aber nicht für alle Zeit gelten; die Situation kann sich dahingehend ändern, dass das notwendig wird oder keinen Unterschied mehr macht. Es könnte auch zu Situationen kommen, in der es sinnvoll sein kann, den Einsatz von NATO-Truppen gegen Russland anzudrohen, ...
Read 25 tweets
Mar 18
Im dritten Thread mit Schwerpunkt "Militärluftfahrt" über der Ukraine und No-Fly-Zone geht es um politische Fragen. Er schließt an diesen Thread an:
Wenn die NATO wie im ersten Thread beschrieben professionell die Bedrohung aus der Luft unterbinden würde, würde Russland mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit taktische Atomwaffen einsetzen, aus der Vielzahl geschilderter Gründe.
Aktuell haben wir die Situation, dass die Welt sich so einig wie nie ist, dass Russland klar der Aggressor ist, und NATO und EU selten geschlossen sind, und in den USA arbeiten sogar Demokraten und Republikaner zusammen wie auch seit Ewigkeiten nicht mehr.
Read 24 tweets
Mar 18
Dies hier ist die Fortsetzung eines Threads zum Thema No-fly-zone, wo primär die militärischen Aspekte von Luftoperationen beleuchte werden: Für die Gesamteinschätzung ist aber noch ein Blick auf die Situation am Boden wichtig, und die Rolle von Drohnen.
Die meisten Schäden und Opfer werden derzeit wohl durch durch Artilleriebeschuss hervorgerufen, weil die russische Luftwaffe nicht die Lufthoheit hat, und nicht einmal die Luftüberlegenheit, wie Russland behauptet.
Die medial spektakulären Zerstörungen im Landesinnern und in Innenstädten dagegen werden oft von Marschflugkörpern verursacht, die aus dem Russischen oder Weißrussischen Luftraum von strategischen Bombern gestartet werden.
Read 25 tweets
Mar 18
Ein guter Artikel von einem Experten für Militärluftfahrt, Justin Bronk, Royal United Services Institute Research Fellow, Airpower & Technology.

Er argumentiert überzeugend, warum eine no-fly-zone keine gute Idee ist und eher Putin nützen würde.

rusi.org/explore-our-re…
Hier Bronk über seinen Artikel im Gespräch mit Ward Carroll, einem F14 Radar Intercept Officer (RIO) mit 20 Jahren Einsatzerfahrung auf US-Flugzeugträgern, Buchautor und Redakteur u.a. von military.com
Die beiden bestätigen meine bisherige Skepsis gegenüber einer eine No-Fly-Zone sowie die allgemeine Einschätzung von @timpritlove und mir über die militärische Situation, aber mit vielen Details und tiefer Sachkenntnis und zusätzlichen Informationen. Hier die wesentlichen Punkte.
Read 26 tweets
Mar 16
This reply pointed me towards another great thread from @kamilkazani I had missed, and it pointed me towards the right direction when I asked about alternatives to military containment of Russia.
The @kamilkazani thread focuses on ending the war in Ukraine by offering the Russian soldiers an attractive way out, but it does not solve the problem with Russia in the decades to come. However, the "give them salt" is an idea with great potential.
I laid out the situation how I understand it in this thread, and concluded that the only realistic future seems to be a military containment of Russia for decades, which will be expensive and disastrous for the World and for Russia.
Read 25 tweets

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