Thread by @baunov

THREAD 1/10 Judging by the words of Russia’s chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, a second topic has emerged in Russian-Ukrainian peace talks: the issue of sanctions against Russia (and their lifting). This both complicates the issue and the peace process and gives it a chance

2/10 On the upside, a situation in which Russia needs something creates new opportunities. Before, Russia was choosing where to stop based on events on the ground. Now that decision is also being determined by the chance to get some sanctions lifted in exchange for an agreement.

3/10 Neutral status for Ukraine and restrictions on the volume and types of weapons to be held by the Ukrainian army with external guarantees could probably be agreed in exchange for peace and the lifting of some sanctions relatively quickly.

4/10 Moscow may also be ready to drop its demand for immediate regime change: this was always expressed ambiguously and was likely meant in the event of the current political leadership collapsing, which hasn’t happened.

5/10 That leaves on the table Moscow’s demand that Ukraine recognize Crimea and the Donbas republics as part of Russia. Russia will clearly try to extend its control to all of the contested Donetsk and Luhansk regions while the talks are ongoing.

6/10 Ukraine now has two negotiating positions. The first is the recognition of Crimea and the Donbas, which it does not want to give way on.

7/10 The second is the lifting of sanctions, which it is, in theory, prepared to compromise on, especially if means less pressure on the issue of recognition (for which there are in theory several options: deferred status, the “Irish option”, a future referendum).

8/10 Russia also has two negotiating positions: the position of its troops on the ground, and its ability to inflict further damage on Ukraine without sustaining any damage to its own territory (excluding sanctions of course)

9/10 The problem with sanctions is that they mean a third party imperceptibly appears in the peace talks. The source of the main sanctions is not Ukraine: it can only recommend that Western countries lift sanctions in exchange for certain conditions achieved to bring about peace.

10/10 Ukraine may even find it has to persuade countries to revoke their sanctions against Russia. And those conditions now may be formulated taking into account that the lifting of sanctions could become part of the conflict’s resolution.