THREAD 1/12 Recognizing the independence of the Donbas republics was unexpected because it was seen as an overly simple and therefore unlikely outcome that doesn’t reflect the scale of the arsenal of tools at Russia’s disposal.
2/12 The recognition is a chance for Russia to climb down from the peak of escalation with a concrete result, because retreating empty-handed would have been a ruinous outcome for the Kremlin’s prestige, and for the country’s military and diplomatic apparatus.
3/12 Russia had three options: pressing Kyiv to federalize through the implementation of the Minsk agreements, pushing the West to end NATO’s expansion, and recognizing the Donbas republics. Having failed to achieve the two main goals, Russia resorted to the third option.
4/12 The Minsk agreements were clearly such a burden for Kyiv that it will be relieved that it was Russia who buried the agreements in the end. In any case, recognition of the republics, doesn’t stop Ukraine from being able to demand their return.bit.ly/3h7rou3
5/12 Recognizing the L/DNR could be precisely the “military-technical” response that Moscow threatened if the West refused its security demands. In a mirror response to NATO moving its military infrastructure close to Russia’s borders, Russia is moving its own towards UA and NATO
6/12 The principle that a power seeking equality will behave like the powers with which it strives for equality is one of the key motivations and explanations of Russia’s actions. bit.ly/3h7rou3
7/12 Still, recognition of the L/DNR can only be considered a relatively peaceful end to the escalation if it really does end there, and there’s no guarantee that it will. It might be opening a pressure valve, or it might be turning up the heat even further.
8/12 Recognizing the republics without withdrawing troops does not mean an end to Russian pressure on the issues of Ukraine’s federalization or Western security guarantees.bit.ly/3h7rou3
9/12 Russia recognizes the “constitutional” borders of both republics, and the territorial issues will have to be resolved during talks with Kyiv. Which of course are doomed never to begin, opening up once more the option of “the talks have failed so we have to act.”
10/12 Despite Western misapprehensions that the Russian president is trying to rebuild the Soviet Union, an important part of his speech was actually devoted to criticism of the Soviet Union. bit.ly/3h7rou3
11/12 What Putins' speech actually showed, once again, is that Putin is in fact rebuilding Russia and the international order according to his own ideas of historical justice and the changing balance of power.
12/12 There are several points of my piece about the recognition of separatist republics by Putin's government carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/865…
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