THREAD 1/6 Given that Putin doesn’t like to be predictable or follow anyone else’s timetable, and that his actions are governed by the logic of special ops, there is some confusion over current events.
2/6 Was the buildup of troops and threat of invasion of Ukraine a cover operation for Russia recognizing the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk? Or will recognition of the territories be a cover operation for invading Ukraine and toppling its current regime?
3/6 Or is all of this together a cover operation for Russia’s main diplomatic goal: forcing Kyiv to implement the Minsk agreements and to federalize, and forcing the West to give Russia security guarantees and halt NATO expansion?
4/6 Recognizing the self-proclaimed DNR and LNR without moving Russian troops away from the border gets rid of the issue of the Minsk agreements for Ukraine, but doesn’t solve the issue of security guarantees for the West.
5/6 For leverage, Moscow might choose to recognize the territories not based on the factual borders of land held by the separatists, but as outlined in the republics’ constitutions: i.e., the borders of the former Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.
6/6 This was hinted at during the public Security Council meeting. In that case, recognition, even if it happens, will not reduce the military pressure on Ukraine or on the West via Ukraine.
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