Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/4 - France (R-eff=1.21) is surging at high level in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality.
120,425 cases and 110 deaths/d by Mar 26, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Mar 19 to 22:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/4 - Four mainland Régions are experiencing surge in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium level of mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.24);
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté=1.22;
Corse=1.26;
Ile-de-France=1.28.

3/4 - Nine mainland Région are experiencing rise in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium [or high] mortality:
Bretagne (R.eff=1.18);
Centre-Val-Loire=1.19;
[Grand-Est=1.18];
Hauts-de-France=1.19;
Normandie=1.19;
Nouv-Aqu=1.18;
Occitanie=1.16;
Pays-de-L=1.17.
[PACA=1.16].

4/4 – Overseas Régions are experiencing high #COVID19 epidemic activity:
- Increasing/Rising with [high] low mortality in [Martinique (R-eff=1.05); Guadeloupe=1.06]/Guyane=1.16;
- Plateauing in La Réunion=1.01, with low mortality;
- Safe in Mayotte=1.10 although rising.

5/4 - Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K pop/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activ < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

6/4 - ... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0