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Charles Gaba 🇺🇦 Profile picture
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Mar 20 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
⚠️ Weekly Update: COVID case/death rates by partisan lean & vaccination rates:
acasignups.net/22/03/20/weekl…
📣 Clear evidence of just how effective vaccines are against dying of COVID: On the left, COVID *case rates* since last May; on the right, COVID *death rates* since last May:
📣 Meanwhile, the Red/Blue divide on COVID death rates continues to rise again, and is again nearly a mirror image of the vaccination rate divide:
Finally, here's the 10-day moving average showing the death rate ratio between the highest- & lowest-Trump counties in the U.S. since the beginning of 2021.

At one point during the Delta wave, the death rate was as much as 9x higher in the reddest decile than the bluest.

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More from @charles_gaba

Charles Gaba 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 20
🚨🚨🚨 How much more will YOU pay if #AmRescuePlan subsidies AREN'T extended? acasignups.net/22/03/17/how-m…
⚠️ The #AmRescuePlan dramatically enhanced & expanded #ACA financial help for millions of people. Unfortunately, this is is currently set to expire at the end of 2022.

The #BuildBackBetter bill extends this thru 2025, but of course the GOP + Manchin blocked it in the Senate. 2/
⚠️ If the #AmRescuePlan's enhanced #ACA subsidies *aren't* extended beyond 12/31/22, 26-yr old enrollees will have to pay up to ~$1,500 more in health insurance premiums in 2023.
Read 6 tweets
Charles Gaba 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 17
Remember when I pointed this out and got a bunch of backlash from people upset that I didn’t adjust for race even though that doesn’t change the fact that a shitload of white people are dying of their own stubbornness?
As I said at the time, “adjusting for race” IS important when trying to liking at inequity and deciding where to focus resources. Native Americans, for instance, are still dying of COVID at a disproportionately high rate relative to their share of the population. HOWEVER…
…pretending that the WHITE death rate hasn’t increased relative to ITS population just because it’s still *below* its proportion of the total population doesn’t stop it from being true, and those dying still won’t be able to vote in future elections no matter how you adjust it.
Read 5 tweets
Charles Gaba 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 16
Of all the graphs & charts I've done over the past couple of years, this one includes the single eeriest coincidental data point.
(By “coincidental” I don’t mean the overall pattern, I mean the fact that the crossover happened on that EXACT date as opposed to a week or two earlier or later.)
The crossover date does shift around a bit if you use the reddest/bluest 20% or 30%, but at 10%, which is what I’ve been using in a lot of my work, it’s right on the nose.
Read 9 tweets
Charles Gaba 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 14
Several shout-outs from @Milbank here, thanks!
…including a brand-new *state-level* COVID death rate analysis which shouldn’t surprise anyone:
acasignups.net/22/03/14/time-…
My findings are similar to those of @DougHaddix. While I usually focus on county-level data, it’s the same story (if not more so) at the state level:
Read 6 tweets
Charles Gaba 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 13
Many people have asked me why the Biden Admin didn’t move on this LAST year. There’s two reasons I can think of: First, the process is a long & convoluted one; it might simply have taken a full year to get to this point. 1/
The other is more pragmatic: They were hoping to have #BuildBackBetter passed and signed into law by now. The CBO score *without* the family glitch will likely be billions of dollars higher than with it still in place. They might’ve been hoping to lock in ARP legislatively first.
With the #FamilyGlitch fixed, up to 5.1 million more Americans would become eligible for #ACA subsidies. Assuming half of them took this up, that’d increase enrollment by another ~18% or so. CBO scored permanent ARP subsidies at ~$220B over a decade, so that’d go up ~$40B or so.
Read 5 tweets
Charles Gaba 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 12
Reminder: Another ~1,600 Americans were reported to have died of COVID yesterday.
Most of these deaths are of people who got infected 3-4 weeks ago. The daily death numbers should start dropping in another week or so. But still.
Meanwhile, here’s the death rates in the U.S. since all adults became eligible to get vaccinated.
Read 4 tweets

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