I'm summarizing @MessariCrypto's 165 page Crypto Thesis for 2022 report by @twobitidiot so that you can get all the key insights
Here's part 3: Top 10 thoughts about #BTC
👇🧵A thread
Here's part 3: Top 10 thoughts about #BTC
👇🧵A thread
2. Please Check on Peter Schiff
#Bitcoin is rapidly outperforming gold. If you invested $100 in BTC 10 years ago, you’d have $1.7M.
If you invested $100 into gold, you’d have $102.
https://twitter.com/zhusu/status/1449572968992940035?s=20
#Bitcoin is rapidly outperforming gold. If you invested $100 in BTC 10 years ago, you’d have $1.7M.
If you invested $100 into gold, you’d have $102.
3. No signs of BTC slowing down. Investors believe in BTC more than ever. Regulators and Institutions are coming on board.
Stocks doing ok, bonds yielding negative returns, inflation is super high, pensioners are owed a ton of money.
https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1451293677888942082?s=20
Stocks doing ok, bonds yielding negative returns, inflation is super high, pensioners are owed a ton of money.
4. #BTC is the best liquid bet on an inflation resistant store of value. Institutions are moving to BTC over gold, this will only continue to happen.
5. The King Stay The King: No Flippenings
There’s a small chance that #ETH will flip BTC this year.
Even if ETH does flip BTC, it will because the market values a user owned computing platform over digital gold. BTC vs ETH is an apples to oranges comparison
There’s a small chance that #ETH will flip BTC this year.
Even if ETH does flip BTC, it will because the market values a user owned computing platform over digital gold. BTC vs ETH is an apples to oranges comparison
6. It’s impossible for ETH to be the worlds best computer and the best money.
Cryptos largest monetary network will likely be larger than its biggest tech.
Cryptos largest monetary network will likely be larger than its biggest tech.
7. Crypto as a whole could outperform btc, leading to btc to lose its dominance.
Memecoins can be cool, but the jokes die quickly ( and a majority of memecoins community are noobs. BTC dominance fell from 71% to 42%, but ETH did too.
The multichain future is coming.
Memecoins can be cool, but the jokes die quickly ( and a majority of memecoins community are noobs. BTC dominance fell from 71% to 42%, but ETH did too.
The multichain future is coming.
8. The Multichain Reserve
The future is a countless number of chains working together. The end user likely does not care which chain they’re using or how it works.
As long as BTC works the way it’s been working, people will have confidence in it as a store of value.
The future is a countless number of chains working together. The end user likely does not care which chain they’re using or how it works.
As long as BTC works the way it’s been working, people will have confidence in it as a store of value.
9. There are a couple of demand drivers for BTC
- BTC will be a reserve on alt L1s while ETH is a competitor
- Cross chain AMMS like THORCHAIN will unlock more p2p swaps. AVAX just announced a AVAX BTC bridge.
- BTC will be a reserve on alt L1s while ETH is a competitor
- Cross chain AMMS like THORCHAIN will unlock more p2p swaps. AVAX just announced a AVAX BTC bridge.
10. - Fears over stablecoins’ independence, censorship resistance, or collateralization could lead to more interest in bitcoin-collateralized crypto dollars
The “Gift” of Bitcoin ETFs
BTC ETFs got approved just a while ago. For 8 years, SEC dragged this out.
The “Gift” of Bitcoin ETFs
BTC ETFs got approved just a while ago. For 8 years, SEC dragged this out.
11. But by not approving it earlier, they provided a gift. An earlier approval could’ve meant centralization risks due to big investors, now it is no longer a big problem, reducing the likelihood of manipulation.
12. The Great Fall of China(’s Bitcoin Industry)
For the longest time, Chinese miners accounted for 70% of bitcoin hashrate.
The Chinese govt implemented a ban on mining, which led to a massive reversal
Essentially, all fears of security and energy consumption fears are FUD
For the longest time, Chinese miners accounted for 70% of bitcoin hashrate.
The Chinese govt implemented a ban on mining, which led to a massive reversal
Essentially, all fears of security and energy consumption fears are FUD
13. We’ve seen evidence that miners move to whatever energy source is the cheapest.
During the rainy season, miners would move to clean hydro energy cause it was cheaper.
Bitcoin as Clean Energy Stimulus
BTC consumes a lot of energy. But a lot of the FUD is baseless.
During the rainy season, miners would move to clean hydro energy cause it was cheaper.
Bitcoin as Clean Energy Stimulus
BTC consumes a lot of energy. But a lot of the FUD is baseless.
14. Curbing global emissions in a reasonable time period is politically impossible. Carbon capture and clean crypto. Or climate and political chaos. Those are the options
Crypto is Eating the World, but Bitcoin Mining Isn’t:
lynalden.com/bitcoin-energy/
Crypto is Eating the World, but Bitcoin Mining Isn’t:
lynalden.com/bitcoin-energy/
15. PoW mining will either go away soon or consume 1% of world power, even if it grows to $20T. As BTC grows, its inflation rate declines, which results in reduced security spending which means less power used.
In fact, declining rewards means risks not attracting enough power.
In fact, declining rewards means risks not attracting enough power.
16. Bitcoin Recycles Energy:
Miners go to the cheapest energy source. There are reserves of untapped clean energy sources.
Natural Gas flares release 150 TWh of energy each day. Currently, this is being wasted. Companies and groups are already trying to tap into this power.
Miners go to the cheapest energy source. There are reserves of untapped clean energy sources.
Natural Gas flares release 150 TWh of energy each day. Currently, this is being wasted. Companies and groups are already trying to tap into this power.
17. This means that all the BTC in the world could theoretically just work off of US’ natural gas flares.
Bitcoin as a Green Energy Stimulus: Btc could fuel Green energy. It could convert waste like the flares into something useful.
Bitcoin as a Green Energy Stimulus: Btc could fuel Green energy. It could convert waste like the flares into something useful.
18. Emerging clean energy markets could greatly benefit and grow to meet BTC’s demands. BTC is already powering clean energy investments.
coindesk.com/policy/2021/10…
coindesk.com/policy/2021/10…
19. Proof-of-Stake Works because Proof-of-Work Worked
PoW burns energy in order to ensure the network is working fairly without reliance on the owners, who could easily centralize over time.
PoW burns energy in order to ensure the network is working fairly without reliance on the owners, who could easily centralize over time.
20. PoS employs token holders as a collective governing body.
Each individual PoS network comes with risks of censorship and centralization.
Real PoS decentralization comes from thousands of interoperable chains.
Each individual PoS network comes with risks of censorship and centralization.
Real PoS decentralization comes from thousands of interoperable chains.
21. PoW paved the way for PoS’ success. PoW was the first and probably the best for stateless money.
Proof-of-Work Protects Minority Rights
BTC’s PoW system has a bias for soft forks, making it the only protocol to protect the minority.
Proof-of-Work Protects Minority Rights
BTC’s PoW system has a bias for soft forks, making it the only protocol to protect the minority.
22. Most other protocols have a bias for hard forks, making it so that the majority rules.
Hard forks and soft forks can completely change up the protocol.
Bad governance politics can go terrible wrong, especially in the case of hard forks.
coinpedia.org/guest-post/sof…
Hard forks and soft forks can completely change up the protocol.
Bad governance politics can go terrible wrong, especially in the case of hard forks.
coinpedia.org/guest-post/sof…
23. The Bitcoin Roadmap
It’s been 4 years since BTC last upgrade and soft fork (before Taproot in November).
The Taproot upgrade, that went effective in November 2021, makes transactions cheaper and increases privacy. It could also mean big things for Bitcoin lightning.
It’s been 4 years since BTC last upgrade and soft fork (before Taproot in November).
The Taproot upgrade, that went effective in November 2021, makes transactions cheaper and increases privacy. It could also mean big things for Bitcoin lightning.
24. Development on BTC is like building a rocket. The stakes are high and you need super tight security.
bitcoin.com/get-started/wh…
Lightning Strikes El Salvador
BTC lightning hasn’t done as well compared to ERC-20s and saw limited growth in 2020.
bitcoin.com/get-started/wh…
Lightning Strikes El Salvador
BTC lightning hasn’t done as well compared to ERC-20s and saw limited growth in 2020.
25. BTC was recently accepted as legal tender in El Salvador.
Although transactions are still relatively small, it still is legal tender for 6M people.
Lightning capacity could greatly increase this year. Twitter accepts tips through Lightning. Could be positioned to explode
Although transactions are still relatively small, it still is legal tender for 6M people.
Lightning capacity could greatly increase this year. Twitter accepts tips through Lightning. Could be positioned to explode
Hope that was insightful, I recommend reading the whole report. @twobitidiot has a ton of insights.
Check it out here: notion.so/covduk/71dae26…
Check it out here: notion.so/covduk/71dae26…
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