Dan Nystedt Profile picture
Mar 27 17 tweets 3 min read
The TSMC Supremacy

When Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang unveiled the H100 data center GPU last week (3/22), he said it was made with TSMC’s 4-nanometer process.

He also said Nvidia is talking to Intel as a new potential foundry partner.

But he warned:

Thread: 1/17
$TSM $INTC $NVDA
2/17
"Being a foundry the caliber of TSMC is not for the faint of heart. I mean this is a change not just in process technology and investment of capital. It's a change in culture." - Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang
$TSM $INTC $NVDA #semiconductors
3/17
TSMC’s business runs on win-win relationships. As customers grow, so does TSMC.

By comparison, Intel makes and sell its own chips. It’s a fierce competitor, used to crushing rivals. Its customers are PC/server vendors, not other chip makers.
$TSM $INTC
4/17
A story like the Nvidia-TSMC saga would not have been possible with Intel.

Intel sells graphics chips, just like Nvidia. They are rivals.

TSMC does not sell any chips. It only manufactures them for customers like Nvidia.
$INTC $TSM $NVDA
5/17
Nvidia’s Huang wasn't satisfied with his 1st manufacturing partner.

But he also couldn’t get a response from TSMC’s USA sales office.

So he wrote letters to TSMC founder Morris Chang, who phoned Nvidia soon after, and visited while on a trip to the US (his honeymoon).
6/17
Nvidia’s CEO liked TSMC's key principles:
-TSMC will never be your competitor, but will only work for you
-TSMC believes in long-term partnerships, not just customers
-Business partners create win-win situations so both grow
-TSMC will "jump through hoops" for partners
$TSM
7/17
That philosophy has worked well over the past few decades.

TSMC now serves over 510 customers, up from 114 in 1993.
$TSM
8/17
Revenue among Top TSMC Customers in 2021 (US$):
Apple+33% to $365.82 billion
Qualcomm+43% to $33.57 billion
MediaTek+53% to $17.78 billion
Nvidia+53% to $16.68 billion
AMD+68% to $16.4 billion

Hence
TSMC+24% to $56.82 billion
$TSM $NVDA $AAPL $QCOM $AMD
9/17
TSMC gets more than just money from customers. Every new type of chip TSMC manufactures requires new expertise.

Last year, TSMC made 12,302 different chip products, up from 11,617 in 2020.

Every new chip is an arrow in TSMC’s quiver, a new tool in its belt.
$TSM
10/17
Nvidia made TSMC an expert in graphics processing units (GPUs).
TSMC started manufacturing Nvidia chips in 1998
By 1999 – 10 million GPUs
By 2001 – 100 million
By 2011 – 1 Billion
By 2017, TSMC had shipped nearly 6 million 12-inch wafers for Nvidia.
$NVDA $TSM
11/17
A key to understanding TSMC is its range of production expertise.

TSMC deployed 291 distinct manufacturing technologies in 2021, up from 281 in 2020.

Although 3-nanometer gets most of the press, TSMC develops and upgrades a range of processes each year. $TSM
12/17
Upgrades are highlighted in TSMC’s 2020 Annual Report (pages 10-14) from new 4nm to much older 180nm processes.

Example: 55nm ultra-low power (55ULP) process, to reduce power use from prior 55nm low power (55LP) process.
$TSM
13/17
Intel bought Tower Semi for customer service and the wider range of chip manufacturing expertise a foundry needs.

Intel listed a few in its announcement: radio frequency (RF), power, silicon-germanium (SiGe) and industrial sensors. $INTC $TSEM
14/17
Intel also said Tower offers more than 2 million wafer starts per year of capacity, similar to Intel’s 2021 production of over 2 million wafers.

By comparison, TSMC shipped 14.18 million wafers (12-inch equivalent) last year, up from 12.4 million in 2020.
$INTC $TSEM $TSM
15/17
TSMC produced 26% of the world’s logic (non-memory) semiconductors last year, up from 24% in 2020.
$TSM
16/17
Intel is a great company. It has the money and engineering talent to build a world-class chip foundry business.

But it will be an uphill battle.

Building a reputation like TSMC has won’t be easy.
$INTC $TSM
17/17
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s praise has been loud and clear.
-“Without TSMC, Nvidia wouldn’t be where it is today.”
-“In every important battle Nvidia has faced, TSMC has been its most powerful ally.”

Intel should aim for praise like that.
$TSM $NVDA $INTC #semiconductors

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More from @dnystedt

Dec 31, 2021
US sanctions against Huawei hurt Shenzhen, China as well, media report. Huawei was a key reason Shenzhen became the top chip design area in China, way ahead of others. Shenzhen’s chip design sector has been nearly halved since the sanctions. Thread 1/5
money.udn.com/money/story/56…
2/5 Huawei Sanctions
Sales among Shenzhen's chip designers fell 46.4% to CNY69.7 billion (US$10.7 bln) in 2021, media report, citing China Semiconductor Industry Association. The inability of Huawei’s HiSilicon to get chips produced was a key to the decline. #semiconductors
3/5 Huawei Sanctions
Shanghai took over the top spot in China chip design as sales rose to CNY120 billion (US$19.9 billion), with Beijing second at CNY83.9 billion (US$13.2 billion), leaving Shenzhen in third place, the report says.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 31, 2021
SMIC can mass produce 5-nanometer chips with existing equipment and does not need EUV Lithography,said the inventor of immersion lithography, Burn J. Lin, professor at Nat’l Tsinghua U. and former TSMC exec, media report. $SMICY #semiconductors Thread 1/5 chinatimes.com/realtimenews/2…
2/5 Burn J. Lin
The chip industry legend said SMIC's success in 5nm chips depends on if the R&D skills are in place. (Note: His comments shed light on 12/9 Wall Street Journal article that the US may seek to ban the export of more chip equipment to SMIC.)
wsj.com/articles/u-s-t…
3/5 Burn J. Lin
Samsung's bid to leap ahead in 3-nanometer process technology will end in tears, Lin also reportedly said. Developing 3nm and below process technology is a thankless task fraught with risk and massive $$ investment, he said. $TSM #Samsung #semiconductors
Read 7 tweets
Dec 29, 2021
Micron has reduced work at a DRAM test/assembly plant in Xi'an, China due to #COVID19 and is working with officials and partners to minimize impact on DRAM supplies, Micron said, and "We project that these efforts will allow us to meet most of our customer demand..." $MU 1/2
Micron's joint venture partner in the Xi'an, China DRAM test/assembly plant, Powertech Technology, reportedly said the utilization rate at the plant dropped to 40%-50% the past 2-days due to the city's #COVID19 lockdown, media report. Powertech is a Taiwan firm. $MU
Read 4 tweets
Dec 4, 2021
Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger made headlines by saying US chip subsidies should be for American firms, not foreign ones like TSMC or Samsung; then saying "Taiwan is not a stable place," due to the military threat (from China).
Thread 1/8 Chip Subsidies $INTC $TSM #semiconductors
2/8 Chip Subsidies
Gelsinger means the US$52 billion in subsidies for new US chip plants, called fabs, in the CHIPS for America Act, money Intel wants for its own new fabs. Fabs cost billions. Samsung is investing $17bln in a Texas fab; TSMC's Arizona fab is $12bln. $INTC $TSM
3/8 Chip Subsidies
TSMC Chairman Mark Liu responded by saying the subsidies should be for any new US fabs, and that if the money is only for US firms, it will hurt America’s ability to rebuild its semiconductor supply chain. $INTC $TSM $MU #semiconductors
Read 10 tweets
Oct 14, 2021
TSMC on Japan fab: plans to build a specialty technology fab in Japan, subject to board approval. Japanese government supports the plan. Will build a 22-28nm process technology #semiconductor fab. Fab construction to begin in 2022, and mass production expected in 2024. $TSM
2/? TSMC 3Q Call
TSMC CEO CC Wei: We are confident we will retain our technology leadership. 2nm technology, density and performance will be the most competitive in 2025 and GAA structure is being considered, but won't say more today. (paraphrasing). $TSM
3/? TSMC 3Q Call

CEO CC Wei: "We are entering a period of higher structural growth" due to 5G, HPC and massive new demand for energy efficient computing, which will require leading edge technologies.

"We expect our capacity to remain tight in 2021 and throughout 2022."
$TSM
Read 12 tweets
Sep 13, 2021
Taiwan newspapers are full of Apple stories as #AppleEvent looms (9/14 Tuesday) with expected #iPhone13 launch.
Thread #Apple 1/5
#Apple 2/5
Taiwan contract iPhone assembly firms Foxconn (Hon Hai) and Pegatron are working overtime to meet demand, media report, with Foxconn said to have hired more than 100,000 additional workers in Zhengzhou to meet production needs. $AAPL
#Apple 3/5
Foxconn (Hon Hai) is expected to remain the biggest iPhone assembler at 65%-70%, compared to Pegatron at 25%, mainly iPhone 13 and #iPhone13 mini, Taiwan media report, adding China's LuxShare Precision will assemble around 5% of iPhones this year.
Read 6 tweets

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