1/7
Earlier I put out this thread about why the move to WFH is causing persistent inflation, our consumption basket has changed.
This thread is about how this same WFH shift is totally changed the RE mkt, homes and office.
I prefer to call RE “broken” rather than a “bubble.”
Earlier I put out this thread about why the move to WFH is causing persistent inflation, our consumption basket has changed.
This thread is about how this same WFH shift is totally changed the RE mkt, homes and office.
I prefer to call RE “broken” rather than a “bubble.”
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1508065911479181325
2/7
First some metrics from Redfin.
The average time to sell is down to 17 days, from 90 ten years ago
Over half of all homes sell ABOVE their list price!
Incredible!
First some metrics from Redfin.
The average time to sell is down to 17 days, from 90 ten years ago
Over half of all homes sell ABOVE their list price!
Incredible!
3/7
And this unbelievable stat from Zillow
This is the first time in the history of this data series, which includes the housing bubble…
The yearly increase in home value has eclipsed median yearly salary.
Your home went up more than you made!
wsj.com/articles/homes…
And this unbelievable stat from Zillow
This is the first time in the history of this data series, which includes the housing bubble…
The yearly increase in home value has eclipsed median yearly salary.
Your home went up more than you made!
wsj.com/articles/homes…
4/7
What’s going on?
Remote work/WFH has created geographical freedom. So we are moving to where we want to live, not where we have to for work.
So tremendous churn and a desire to live in our preferable spot no matter the cost.
What’s going on?
Remote work/WFH has created geographical freedom. So we are moving to where we want to live, not where we have to for work.
So tremendous churn and a desire to live in our preferable spot no matter the cost.
5/7
Ask anyone what drives home prices? Job opportunities.
But as this WSJ story says, that is not what is happening in Manhattan.
“People want to live in Manhattan as much as they ever have. The problem is that not enough people want to work there.”
wsj.com/articles/midto…
Ask anyone what drives home prices? Job opportunities.
But as this WSJ story says, that is not what is happening in Manhattan.
“People want to live in Manhattan as much as they ever have. The problem is that not enough people want to work there.”
wsj.com/articles/midto…
6/7
Residential RE is Manhattan is booming, reflecting a desire by many (Millennials, GenZ) to live the Urban lifestyle.
But Midtown Manhattan office RE, which is 11% of US office space, is dying. The article says many fear an office version of the 1970s “rust belt” is coming.
Residential RE is Manhattan is booming, reflecting a desire by many (Millennials, GenZ) to live the Urban lifestyle.
But Midtown Manhattan office RE, which is 11% of US office space, is dying. The article says many fear an office version of the 1970s “rust belt” is coming.
7/7
Remote work/WFH has completely turned the RE market on its head, like it is contributing to persistent inflation.
WFH is fundamentally changing the economy is ways we are only beginning to understand.
We are not returning to 2019.
Remote work/WFH has completely turned the RE market on its head, like it is contributing to persistent inflation.
WFH is fundamentally changing the economy is ways we are only beginning to understand.
We are not returning to 2019.
Bonus
The home RE mkt has so changed that I think this is the last payday for RE brokers. Once this cycle is over, we will understand we don’t need them anymore, or listing prices.
Just list online “for sale” buyers will go to Redfin/Zillow and start bidding.
Save the 5% comm.
The home RE mkt has so changed that I think this is the last payday for RE brokers. Once this cycle is over, we will understand we don’t need them anymore, or listing prices.
Just list online “for sale” buyers will go to Redfin/Zillow and start bidding.
Save the 5% comm.
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