Thread by @DrEricDing

⚠️BA2 DOMINANT—Welp—CDC reports the #BA2 subvariant is now 54.9% of all cases as of March 26th. ➡️This matches our forecast of March 26th BA2 dominance **right on the nose**—for equilibrium plateau point. Wastewater plateaued too. Surge coming in April.

Forecast HT to @JPWeiland

2) Wastewater signals also show sewage #SARSCoV2 levels also has plateaued from its steep drop. The plateau coincides with the “criss crossing” of old BA1 drop and new #BA2 rise.

biobot.io/data/

3) To be honest, it didn’t take being a rocket scientist or epidemiologist to figure out where #BA2 is taking us when you see this exponential graph on a log scale. BA2 was headed for dominance for weeks.

HT @DrWilliamKu

4) cases were already plateaued or trending up last week in many places. We shouldn’t let this time goto waste - we must prepare again.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1506851964054917120

5) last week in Ontario — wastewater resurgence just as BA2 crossed 50% there as well.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1507034903271120896

6) Don’t let the US be overrun again, like it did in the UK 🇬🇧— where #BA2 has been dominant since late February and cases and hospitalizations and deaths are now all increasing by a lot.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1507346360022020096

7) We predicted also ~30,000 cases on March 26th (15k for BA1 and 15k for BA2 equilibrium point)… what is the actual case reported on March 27th? … 30,000 on the nose.

HT @JPWeiland

8) If we epidemiologists are right so far about #BA2 — then don’t doubt us when we are warning what is happening in 🇬🇧 will be coming to the US if we don’t act fast! The new BA2 wave is no joke. And UK 🇬🇧 is way more boosted than the Us is.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1507348143167479813

9) don’t let 20 million excess deaths have died in vain. Let’s learn from our previous mistakes so that we can prevent further suffering. We need to wake up that #COVIDisAirborne and we need #N95
Masks and #ventilation and air #disinfection along with testing and #booster.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1508781861643997191

10) And don’t think BA2 won’t be worse than old Omicron — we are seeing #BA2 drive more hospitalizations in the elderly in England now than in the last wave!

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1507350603210674181

11) 1A new Swedish study now also shows #BA2 induces **twice the viral load** as BA1 old omicron. That’s bad. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

12) What the heck is this #BA2? This is a lay short summary video of BA2 from last week. #BA2 honestly deserves its own Greek letter— c’mon @WHO. #CovidIsNotOver

HT @lindseytheis #COVID19

13) the fact that reinfections are up ⬆️ again in UK is worrisome. 97-99% of UK residents have #SARSCoV2 antibodies already. Reinfection and breakthroughs is now the name of the game with #BA2.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1506427492411879432

14) Dear folks who have been diligently sharing info to protect your family and friends. To better share and help each other stay safe—please join our “COVID Precaution Community”👇

Kindness & empathy required. Humor is welcome. Mass infection is not.🙏
twitter.com/i/communities/…

15) UPDATE—apparently the CDC data on #BA2 is actually outperforming our models now. BA2 is increasing 40% per week. Cases will bottom out March 30th and then resurge April. We can’t mess around anymore. We have run out of runway on our lull. The next wave is coming.

https://twitter.com/jpweiland/status/1508926976928583685

16) here is what is happening while cases currently plateau. #Ba2 and BA1 are criss crossing. We are exactly at the red and green line criss cross point.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1506460487281750019