Thread by @tdarling1

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review - 04/03/2022

1/13

Why is #Quad4 consensus for Q2?

Because everyone KNOWS that both growth and inflation are “un-comp-able” vs Q2 2021

And right on cue, #Quad4 deflationary signals appeared this week ⚠️

2/13

Important note on trade (t) and Trend (T) this week

t = trade = 1-mo price change is comping against the March 7 commodity peak

T = Trend = 3-mo price change in comping against the #SPX ATH

3/13

The UST curve went from 🥞 to 🙃 as the 2Y ↗️ +18 BPS and the 10Y ↘️ -10 BPS to #inversion -7.2 BPS

Chart: 10/2s curve

4/13

With the #inversion, the long end of the bond market caught a bid ↗️

$BNDD +4.15% (w) +0.08% (T)
$TLT +3.05% (w) -10.65% (T)
$LQD +1.55% (w) -8.65% (T)
$HYG +0.75% (w) -5.8% (T)

Chart: 🏀 off support, $TLT - one week’s price action is not a 📈 🐻

4a/13

$TIP -0.85% as #inflation assets struggle

Chart: $TIP -3.7% (t) -4.75% (T) 🐻

5/13

To reinforce the point of #inflation assets ↘️, the $CRB -4.6% on the week, and for now 307.33 is the 🔝

6/13

Ex-Natty, hydrocarbons 🛢 & ⛽️ 📉 hard

$WTIC -12.85% (w) +32.0% (T)
$BRENT -1.075% (w) +34.65% (T)
$GASO -8.45% (w) +41.9% (T)

Chart: $WTIC has struggled over the past 4 weeks -14.2% with 130.50 🔝

6a/13

Natty, on the other ✋, continues to rip 🚀

Chart: $NATGAS +1.95% (w) +53.35% (T)

7/13

Metals also struggled on the week as the 3/07/22 blow-off 🔝 remains a formidable barrier (machines are selling)

$COPPER -0.2% (w) +5.15% (T)
$GOLD -1.55% (w) +5.2% (T)
$PLAT -1.95% (w) +2.3% (T)
$SILVER -3.75% (w) +5.55% (T)

Chart: $COPPER -5.05% over (t) duration

7a/13

Industrial metals, like aluminum and zinc, continue ↗️

Chart: $DBB +0.4% (w) +17.2% (T)

8/13

Grains were also gobsmacked ↘️ this week

$WHEAT -9.9% (w) +27.7% (T)
$SOYB -7.45% (w) +18.2% (T)
$CORN -2.5% (w) +23.9% (T)
$SUGAR -1.2% (w) +2.5% (T)

Chart: $WHEAT -16.25% over (t) duration #correction

8a/13

☕️ ↗️

Chart: $COFFEE +2.7% (w) +0.85% (T)
Hope no one got caught 🩳

9/13

Not a lot of change in #fx

$USD -0.2% (w) +3.18% (T)
$AUD -0.4% (w) +3.03% (T)
$FXC -0.37% (w) +0.92% (T)
$FXF +0.53% (w) -1.7% (T)
$EUR +0.5% (w) -2.9% (T)
$GBP -0.6% (w) -3.05% (T)
$FXY -0.5% (w) -6.2% (T)

Chart: $EURUSD +0.97% over (t) duration but 👋 at the 📉 line

10/13

The 15-day ♉️ impulse in 🇺🇸 equities abated somewhat as vol continued to ↘️

$SPX +0.05% (w) -4.6% (T)
$COMPQ +0.65% (w) -8.84% (T)
$IWM +0.7% (w) -6.7% (T)

$VIX 19.63 🔻

Chart: $IWM +4.5% (t) struggling at the break down line

10a/13

Low beta winning ♣️ over high beta stocks

$SPLV +2.25% (w) -0.8% (T)
$SPHB -0.5% (w) -3.8% (T)

Chart: $SPLV +3.7% over (t) duration

10b/13

Value over growth

$SPYV -0.5% (w) +0.3% (T)
$SPYG +0.25% (w) -8.6% (T)

Chart: $SPYV +6.8% over (t) duration

11/13

Strongest US Sectors all #quad4 longs
$XLRE +4.55% (w) -4.9% (T)
$XLU +3.75% (w) +5.5% (T)
$XLP +2.15% (w) -0.6% (T)
$XLV +1.3% (w) -2.0% (T)

Chart: $XLRE +5.6% over (t) duration + divvy

11a/13

Financials are NOT ❤️ the YC inversion

Chart: $XLF -3.3% (w) -2.0% (T) 🆕🩳

12/13

Internat’l indices 💪 over past 3-4 weeks, but still 🐻📉

$HSI +2.95% (w) -5.80% (T)
$SSEC +2.2% (w) -9.8% (T)
$CAC +2.0% (w) -6.55% (T)
$DAX +1.0% (w) -9.05% (T)
$KOSPI +0.35% (w) -8.0% (T)
$NIKK -1.7% (w) -3.9% (T)

Chart: $DAX +10.3% over (t) duration but #fugly

12a/13

Strongest Country ETFs

$EDEN +4.35% (w) -8.05% (T)
$EWZ +3.85% (w) +39.45% (T)
$EWW +3.3% (w) +9.4% (T)
$EWI +3.25% (w) -8.65% (T)

Chart: $INDA +2.6% is back to neutral Trend -0.95%

13/13

The market took a bite out of #inflation this week as the bond market flashed 📸 #recession 10-18 months ahead

Interestingly, the Fed’s balance sheet ↘️

One-week does not a 📉 make

Remain 💦 and have a super profitable 💰 week!

Chart: Federal Reserve BS 🌊