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Dave Keating

@DaveKeating

Apr 1

@EUCOpresident

Speaking after 🇪🇺🇨🇳#EUChinaSummit, @EUCOpresident Michel says this was "not business as usual"

"It was a wartime summit. We are living through the gravest security crisis in Europe since World War 2. Putin's war in Ukraine continues to kill women and children and destroy cities"

"We focused on what can be done to end this war as soon as possible" he says.

"The EU and China agreed that this war is threatening global security and the world economy. This global instability is not in China's interest and not in the EU's interest. We share a responsibility."

@EUCOpresident

"We called on #China to help end the war in #Ukraine," says 🇪🇺 @EUCOpresident.

"China cannot turn a blind eye to Russia's violation of international law. These principles are enshrined in the UN charter and are principles sacred to China."

Read 7 tweets

Dave Keating

@DaveKeating

Apr 1

Today will see the 1st 🇪🇺🇨🇳 #EUChinaSummit in 2 years. It was planned before 🇷🇺Putin's invasion of 🇺🇦, but the topic will obviously dominate today's talks.

The big question: can 🇪🇺 use its economic leverage to stop 🇨🇳 aiding 🇷🇺, and should Europe use a carrot or stick approach?

Ahead of the summit, a senior EU official noted 🇨🇳 has over past 3 decades economically benefitted from the system of international rules that's now under threat from #Putin, therefor should want to side with 🇪🇺🇺🇸.

But 🇨🇳's interests now may be more geopolitical than economic.

"Do you [🇨🇳] want to endanger the stability and growth prospects of the global economy and your own country?” asked the EU official.

The stick approach: If 🇨🇳 supplies 🇷🇺 for #UkraineWar or helps it evade sanctions, may get less economic access to West (or face sanctions itself)

Read 6 tweets

Dave Keating

@DaveKeating

Mar 25

@JoeBiden

Presidents @JoeBiden & @VonDerLeyen have just announced a deal that will see 🇺🇸 deliver an additional 15 billion cubic metres of liquified natural gas (#LNG) this year to 🇪🇺.

It's designed to give #EUCO leaders the confidence today to ban Russian energy imports.

But #Biden acknowledges the problem: Europe has few #LNG port facilities to receive the liquified gas, and they're already operating at capacity. He says US will help build new LNG infrastructure.

Longer term, 🇺🇸 will deliver at least 50bn cm per year to 🇪🇺 from now to 2030.

The amount of extra 🇺🇸#LNG deliveries by ship this year promised by #Biden amounts to 10% of the 155 bcm of gas 🇪🇺 imports from Russia each year via pipeline.

EU will "build more infrastructure to receive LNG and to take steps to increase the efficiency of gas" Biden says.

Read 5 tweets

Dave Keating

@DaveKeating

Mar 25

@EnergyMonitorAI

#EUCO will today see Latin-Germanic clash on energy prices. It's very technical but here's an explainer I wrote for @EnergyMonitorAI.

Electricity prices are tied to gas, and they're going through the roof. 🇪🇸Sanchez wants to change that. 🇩🇪🇳🇱 say no.
energymonitor.ai/sectors/power/…

The disagreement on energy prices could blow up #EUCO today. 🇪🇸Sanchez is threatening to veto #EUCO conclusions if there's no price changes.

Team Sanchez (🇮🇹🇵🇹🇬🇷🇧🇪) say urgent relief is needed.

🇩🇪🇳🇱 say intervention is not a silver bullet & caps risk suppliers ending contracts

🇩🇪🇳🇱 also point out market intervention setting energy prices is a double-edged sword.

You could set a price that's lower than market rate now, only to see the market rate fall in a few months and end up with Europeans paying more than the market rate. Long-term consequences.

Read 28 tweets

Dave Keating

@DaveKeating

Mar 25

Conclusions on #Ukraine after Day 1, the 27 #EUCO PMs & presidents.

"The European Council calls on all countries to align with those sanctions. Any attempts to circumvent sanctions or to aid Russia by other means must be stopped"
consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…

The big question is whether EU leaders will today ban imports of Russian oil & coal. This morning presidents Biden & VDL will announce LNG deal designed to make that easier.

“Everybody wants it but it’s nothing that you can do in the short term" said 🇳🇱Dutch PM Rutte last night.

“Measures on energy right now would have a huge impact on our economies" said 🇧🇪Belgian PM. “The basic rule is that sanctions must have a much greater impact on the Russian side than on the European side. We don't wage war on ourselves"

Could phasing in the ban allay concerns?

Read 4 tweets

Dave Keating

@DaveKeating

Mar 24

🇺🇸US President Joe Biden speaking at #NATO HQ now.

He says it’s understandable that NATO allies are concerned. “The US has committed to provide $2 billion to Ukraine since I became president…our weapons are flowing into 🇺🇦 as we speak”

#Biden says it was clear in his call with #Putin a month ago that the Russian leader didn’t expect the West to stay so United.

He praises America’s #NATO and #EU partners for their robust response.

On #China, #Biden says he believes Xi understands his country’s future will be better cooperating with the West than in being tied to Russia.

Very similar line to what Macron, Scholz & Draghi said earlier.

Read 7 tweets

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