Thread by @Mariia_Zolkina

THREAD on What’s next between #Russia and West? This is crucial Q-n, directly influencing Western reaction of RU aggression. Declaration, that RU is commenting #WarCrimes doesn’t necessarily mean readiness of the West to reshape and rebuild its relations with RF 1/

Scenario 1. West wants to preserve relations as such, continue business with RU while accusing it for aggression and authoritarianism. It means support to “peace deal” btw #Ukraine and #Russia regardless, whether it will bring strategic security either for UA, or for Europe 2/

In this case, RU will be treated as aggressor, but won’t be economically and politically punished to possible maximum. After “peace deal” or in case of protracted conflict, West will return to “rational” co-existence with RU, meaning “business” cooperation. 3/

Who can be supporters of this scenario? #Germany, #France, Italy, Turkey. Under certain circumstances even the US. All of them would have different own reasons, but general aim would be to preserve window of opportunity to keep relations with Russia without defeating it

Scenario 2. West understands, it needs to weaken #Russia up to maximum, defeat it economically with really killing sanctions,and make #Ukraine’s army defeat it on the ground. But this means accepting, that relations with Russia aren’t possible as they were before “big war”5/

Are Western countries ready for having new era in relations with #Russia? Not actually. #Poland, Baltic states, some Eastern Europe states, and #UnitedKingdom are ready. US again can be ready under certain circumstances. Western Europe can’t admit new reality as of now 6/

Though it doesn’t mean, this full reset, new reality in relations with #Russia isn’t possible. It depends mainly on successes of #Ukraine’s army, and power of UA diplomacy +resilience of society. If UA doesn’t push for cutting off “former relations” with RU, nothing happens7/

But what we need to understand, is that current indecision of the West is direct result of lack of their strategic thinking, what is to be five to #Russia in future, and how their relations with it should look like.

#Ukraine should check, how West understands the logic of protracted conflict with RU. It seems, while for UA it means stronger defense capacities and resistance, for the West it can mean decrease of weapons supply and no readiness to the worst #sanctions. 8/