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Peter Zeihan

@PeterZeihan

Mar 26

This is massive. Germany resisted any sort of combined EU debt raising capacity from the start. Before this fund was formed in 2020, the only way the EU could get money was if member states <gave> them the money.
reuters.com/world/europe/e…
1/

Now the EU can issue its own bonds. Germany only agreed to it because of the Covid crisis. Here's what I wrote on the subject when it happened:
zeihan.com/a-faint-flicke…
2/

Now Germany - "i'm-not-paying-for-your-mistakes Germany - is suggesting the EU raise more debt to finance a war vs Russia. In many ways this is a bigger & more effective step than Germany asking EU members to deploy their militaries to Ukraine to fight Russia directly.
3/

Read 4 tweets

Peter Zeihan

@PeterZeihan

Mar 2

Here's the UNGA vote on condemning Russia. A few thoughts.

1/ #Syria. No shocker how they voted. But the remaining Russian forces there are about to be cut off from...everything. #Turkey has already closed the Turkish Straits to Russian ships. Wanna kill some Russians without going to Ukraine? Here's your opportunity.

2/ #Mongolia abstained. While not technically a Russian satellite, they remain under heavy Russian influence. Arguably heavier than during the Soviet period. Really cheeses off the Chinese.

Read 9 tweets

Peter Zeihan

@PeterZeihan

Mar 1

Here's one of many snapshots of that 40 mile long traffic jam of Russian heavy equipment. Some thoughts:

First, it'll take longer for it to get where its going than you think. This isn't the Canadian trucker convoy where they could stop for fuel as they goal...

1/

They have to bring their own. 40 MILES of vehicles will move vvvvvvvvvveeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyy sssssssssssslllllllllllooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwllllllllllllyyyy. Military vehicles like tanks get about 1 mile per gallon. They'll likely all run out of fuel multiple times.

2/

And the convoy is so long and moving so slow that every time one vehicle stops, EVERY VEHICLE BEHIND IT MUST STOP AS WELL. I can explain away much of what has gone wrong for Russia in the war to date as it simply being the first week...

3/

Read 5 tweets

Peter Zeihan

@PeterZeihan

Feb 27

Lots here. General update:

1/ The Russian advanced into #Kharkiv, up in northeast #Ukraine and hard on the Russian border, was chopped to bits
wsj.com/articles/ukrai…

2/ Ukraine is forming an international branch of their "military "which will make it much easier for anyone in the world and wants to come and join the fight to do so

3/ #Kiev again repulsed a Russian assault. Once Russian armor was dispatched, Kiev spent the night purging itself of Russian foot soldiers
4/ Russian armor is flowing in from #Belarus on multiple vectors, with the intent of hitting Kiev from multiple directions

Read 5 tweets

Peter Zeihan

@PeterZeihan

Feb 26

DW dumped everything they had into a single article. In no particular order.
1/ The French have started seizing Russian cargo ships on the high seas. That's kinda badass. Very pre-WWI.
dw.com/en/ukraine-hea…

2/ Heavy fighting near Mariupol. Russian forces are pushing out of those eastern secessionist enclaves with the goal of linking up with Crimea.

3/ Facebook decided that while they are fine posting xenophobic and genocidal propaganda from China, actual war propaganda is a step too far. Facebook has barred all Russian entities from putting up ads on their platform.

Read 4 tweets

Peter Zeihan

@PeterZeihan

Feb 23

1/
In light of all the Ukraine goings on, I'm posting some maps from The Absent Superpower.

2/
From the US point of view, Ukraine is not what matters. Instead, its what happens after the Russians have consolidated control over Ukraine & turn to their next targets: Poland and the Baltics.

3/
Russia sees these conquerings as defensive. Russians are attempting to plug the access point to their heartlands. In Absent Superpower I broke these efforts into a series of phases. By my math we are now in phase 3.

Read 4 tweets

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