Paul Guerra Profile picture
Apr 23, 2022 17 tweets 14 min read Read on X
15 takeaways from .@APompliano’s discussion with .@RaoulGMI that will make an immediate impact

= THREAD 🧵 =
Pre-2017 was #Bitcoin’s first season. It went from completely unknown to the first steps of mainstream adoption.

2017 was the beginning of season 2, which was a continuation of season 1, just on steroids.

2020 was the beginning of season 3, which is where we’re still at…
Season 3 brought in new players. Guys like Paul Tudor Jones, Ray Dalio, and Stanley Druckenmiller say they have #BTC in their portfolio

BTC’s holder base is changing. Historically they weren’t macro traders and just focused on DCA.

Now, #Bitcoin is very correlated to #NASDAQ
Season 4:

Full-blown consensus outside of #WallStreet. Public companies, nations, energy producers, etc.

We have Exxon & ConocoPhillips doing #BTC pilots in the energy world. There’s .@nayibbukele’s pioneer model in El Salvador

It’s a question of when do we get there…
#BTC is an XXI century light asset.

People buy #realestate because it’s a hard asset/tax cuts/cash flow, but BTC is a harder sounder asset. No location or maintenance cost worries.

Uber owns no cars & Airbnb owns no hotels. #Bitcoin is designed to solve 21st-century problems…
It’s all about automated finance

#BTC is an automated central bank that through code will operate the #monetaryPolicy in an independent predictable way

#DeFi isn’t decentralized but it’s still valuable. Some solutions will be centralized and some won’t

Machines work 24/7/365…
.@saylor created the playbook for public companies to adopt #Bitcoin on their balance sheet or treasury -to his credit, he open-sourced it

.@stablekwon is in the process of creating the playbook for using #BTC as a reserve asset for currencies. Will he open source it?
$UST $LUNA
In 2011, 100% of #Bitcoin holders owned only Bitcoin, now it’s only 13% according to .@Grayscale’s latest data.

In the future, it’ll go under 1%. The whole idea of maximization is a zero-sum mentality, and the most influential folks in the #BTC community have an open mindset…
.@APompliano’s #crypto investing framework:

“It's growing at such a rapid pace that the critical industry is now like 10 different sub-industries

People are going to have to concentrate because if you try to do 1% of everything, you're going to be really bad at all of it”…
#Bitcoin is the reserve asset for the internet.

Many people in the #BTC community aren’t interested in the economic gain. They understand that by holding it they’ll make gains, but there are humanitarian and intellectual curiosity aspects that are virtuous…
Future of #crypto early-stage venture investments:

It’ll be a buy now, learn later market and that’ll turn off 99.9% of people who might think it’s a gamble.

💼 Returns:

50% will go to 0
25% up to 2x
15% 2x-5x
9% 5x-10x
1% 10x +
#Bitcoin raised no venture capital money, has no CEO, no marketing department. It was funded by the crowd.

Developers, miners, holders & node operators make #BTC successful

Now, there are multiple options on capital markets for people who want to participate in this industry…
A lot of innovation & experimentation can happen because we expanded the pie of mkt participants, and that’s positive.

There’s going to be bad actors & scams so this is risk capital.

“we just got to be really careful of people who’re preaching that everything's going to
work”
.@APompliano’s main advice:

“The average person shouldn't invest in any of this stuff. You should go learn about #Bitcoin and just dollar cost average into a hard asset, maybe rather than buy #realestate or #bonds
#crypto mass adoption:

We’re going to tokenize the world. Stocks, bonds, currencies & commodities will be #digitalassets.

#Bitcoin is using the alts market as R&D.

“I don't think there's going to be one single solution. It doesn't matter where it's ultimately going to happen”
“The world is a positive-sum, it's abundant. Don't be rigid, the 🌎 is shifting underneath us. Constantly reevaluate your perspective.

It does not guarantee that you will be successful, but it will damn well increase your probabilities of ending up in accomplishing your goals”.
Thank you for getting this far! If you liked this thread, please RT the first tweet 🔁

Gratitude to .@APompliano & .@RaoulGMI for adding value to the space!

👇 If you want to learn more, check out this and similar FREE #crypto content on .@RealVision realvision.com/shows/raoul-pa…

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1/ There's no denying that we're in a mess!

By the Law of Unintended Consequences, every time we try to fix A, we create problems B, C, D, E, etc.

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[a thread for normies - like me]
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In fact, my inflation could be seen as #disinflation by you... (more on that later)
3/ Price inflation and monetary inflation have different definitions:

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[an introductory thread for normies -like me]
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Also, markets don't care about you!

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[a thread for normies -like me]
Long periods of #dollar-strength often ended with massive financial dislocations like the Latin American #debt crisis of the 80s and the Asian crisis of the 90s.

Oppositely, long periods of a weakening dollar came with strong markets like between 2003-2007.

1/20
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= thread =
1/ being a Producer influenced his #crypto journey:

“You have to always think about what the future looks like.

The best musicians & producers are the ones that are actually very good at predicting where things are going because they're actually carving the road.”…
2/ .@steveaoki on investing:

He invests in undervalued startups — especially research orgs & scientists that are keen on 🧠 research.

“That's what's
interesting to me the most. Then what everyone's already jumping into, I'd rather know what the small circles
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Read 20 tweets

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