Gauteng, with ~25% of SA's population, is once again the epicentre of a resurgence of #Covid_19 in South Africa 🇿🇦
A surge in infection rates, increasing demand on hospitalisations, reported deaths remain low...
Thread 🧵 ../n
Another 3,145 #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng 🇿🇦 today, 7-day rolling avg at 2,117 ⬆️
Case incidence = 13.4 per 100k population, up to 20% of recent peak 🏔️
Case rate up 173% week-on-week or currently doubling every 4.8 days 📈
2/n
Latest test % positivity in Gauteng🇿🇦 for week ending 23 Apr = 20.2% 🚩
Not surprising given fewer people testing, but increase is steep, up from 11.9% a week prior. With 1 in every 5 tests returning a positive result, it also indicates many more cases going undetected 🧐
3/n
Hospital admissions in Gauteng 🇿🇦 have seen an increase last week, up 59% week-on-week but off a low baseline 📈
The increase is not as steep as that in infections, but needs to be monitored closely 🚑
993 patients currently in hospitals in GP, with 83 in ICU 🤲
4/n
Reported #COVID19 deaths in Gauteng 🇿🇦 remain low 🙏
Due to lag between infections and deaths, as well as reporting lag, cannot read too much into this indicator yet... However, with high levels of population immunity, >80%, hopefully more decoupling and less severe disease
5/n
While it's too early to read much into severity of current #COVID19 resurgence being experienced in Gauteng, and South Africa🇿🇦, early indications suggest a similar decoupling effect as with original #Omicron wave due to high levels of population immunity. Watching closely🧐
6/n
As ever, all comments/suggestions/criticisms always welcome! #FreeSpeech
I don't always have time to reply to all or to post the many graphs I update daily, but I'll endeavour to respond and share what's most pertinent 🤗
Take care, stay safe, and happy freedom day SA🇿🇦
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I'm back with another tweet on #COVID19 in South Africa🇿🇦 (that hiatus didn't last long) 😅
A lot of questions about whether it's the right decision to stop reporting daily #SARSCoV2 data in SA?
I believe it is, for a few reasons... [Thread] 🧵
1. Yes #SARSCoV2 is still around, and won't magically disappear, but the risk of severe disease and death has reduced significantly, primarily due to high levels of population immunity in the country.
Graph of reported and in-hospital #COVID19 deaths in SA🇿🇦 shown below:
2. Testing has declined substantially, and so case numbers and even test % positivity have become unreliable as a true reflection of actual #COVID19 infection rates.
An ONS-style randomised infection survey as done in the UK🇬🇧 would be useful, but we don't have such here in SA🇿🇦
Thread.. 🧵
I have received a lot of questions about #COVID19 deaths in South Africa 🇿🇦
Here's a graph showing the different metrics of mortality: reported #COVID19 deaths, in-hospital #Covid_19 deaths, and excess deaths over the course of the pandemic :
1/n
There have been 1,274 total deaths reported over this BA.4/BA.5 or 5th wave of #COVID19 in South Africa 🇿🇦
This is just over one-fifth (21.5%) of the 5,923 cumulative deaths reported over previous Omicron BA.1 wave over the summer months & significantly less than previous waves
Reporting of #COVID19 deaths in South Africa🇿🇦 are laggy and under-estimated. Since the Omicron BA.1 wave, NDoH has been conducting audit exercises and reporting backlogs but unfortunately provide no context as to when those deaths actually occurred nor make that data available🤷♂️
With new #COVID19 cases in Gauteng🇿🇦 having peaked recently, promisingly cases didn't plateau but well on the decline now 📉
Current 7-day rolling avg at 1,609 or 10.2 per 100k, down 39% week-on-week and already down to 51% of recent peak 👍
2/6
Latest #COVID19 test % positivity in Gauteng🇿🇦 for week ending 21 May = 19.6% 📉
Testing has remained low, understandably, so test % positivity is naturally higher but after peaking it has continued to decline, confirming the decline in infections 👍
Here's an update of the latest #COVID19 indicators in Gauteng🇿🇦, where Omicron sublineages BA.4 & BA.5 are driving a 5th wave of infections
Spoiler: continued decoupling; hospitalisations and deaths remain low...
Thread 🧵 ../6
3,484 new #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng 🇿🇦 today, 7-day rolling avg at 3,105 📈
Case incidence = 19.1 per 100k population, and up to 29% of BA.1 peak 🏔️
Case rate up 27% compared to a week ago, but even though testing remains low it's showing signs of slowing again 🧐
2/6
Latest test % positivity in Gauteng🇿🇦 for week ending 7 May = 26.2% 🚩
Testing remains significantly lower than before, not surprising... But while test % positivity is very high (1 in ~4 tests positive), it too appears to be flattening 🤞