Fiat currencies are a phase-out model and financial repression destroys much wealth. The latest inflation numbers shake up the bond markets. #Fed 2022 hawkishness hit another ATH after Employment Cost Index (ECI).
2/ To understand the current stage of crypto development, we can use an analogy and compare the number of cryptousers with that of the Internet. We are in the year 2000 of the Internet👀👀👀
3/ There are a lot of indicators for trading.But the main thing is that more and more people are using crypto (demand/wallets⬆️), although after 3rd halving hardly any #BTC are being mined (supply).
This leads to scarcity and stronger demand than supply.Thus,#Bitcoin price rise!
Large sums of money that have been invested in the mining sector. This reflects the "smart money" expectation of price developments in the near future🚀🚀🚀
5/ Scarcity increase over time👀
#BTC supply divided by the total number of unique addresses used on the blockchain🔥🔥🔥
It is a matter of time that new users will lift the price even higher, while halving dates will reduce supply🍦
6/ #BTC hedges against inflation while the price is driven by its scarcity and declining supply😍😍😍
2. BTC hedges against inflation. Inflation is rising, money is worth less✔️
3. BTC is strongly linked to the stock market✔️
9/ While the retail investor continues to panic, smart money continues to add new #bitcoins at current level. Pointed out by my TA fellow @EtherNasyonaL (a must follow) in a previous post🔥🔥🔥
10/ #Bitcoin addresses are steadily increasing over time. More addresses, more users❤️
At SOPR, we are currently in the twighlight zone 0.07. Using 10-day EMA for the SOPR. Top 2 to 6 (selling zone) and bottom -2 to -4 (buying zone).
12/ #Bitcoin is replacing #Gold as sound money. So many disadvantages of physical gold... #bitcoin price trendline moves with US #inflation trendline. Geopolitical tensions will continue to exist. Money printing will continue.
13/ We're sticking with it,governments are eliminating the value of fiat currencies. At the same time,we are still in the early stages of crypto. Whether you hit the low on #BTC and trade or HODL will not be decisive in the long run. You just have to be on the right side👐💎
14/ Finally, superb technical analysts you should follow 🔥🔥🔥
🧵 THREAD: Crypto-X is flipping bearish again, predicting a 2021 double top.
I see influencers saying "I sold all my #Bitcoin today" everywhere.
The narrative is getting loud. But what's really behind it?
I took a deep dive watching some important indicators👇
2/ "That RSI-divergence on the weekly looks like the double top in 2021"
Divergences look scary on charts. But I actually went back and checked every single weekly RSI divergence in Bitcoin's history.
Want to know what I found? This thing has been dead wrong most of the time.
2015: "Divergence means top!" - BTC went up 10x 2017: "This divergence is different!" - BTC kept pumping for months
2019: "Finally confirmed!" - Another 4x move incoming
The only time it actually worked was 2021. That's 1 out of 5.
So we're supposed to sell everything based on an indicator that's failed 80% of the time?
We need more data.
3/ But here's what really matters: Active addresses
This is the metric nobody talks about but should be watching closely.
Active addresses show you who's actually using Bitcoin - not just trading it, but moving it, holding it, believing in it.
Look at what happened during REAL bear markets:
2018: Active addresses absolutely collapsed. People gave up.
2021: Same thing. Mass exodus from Bitcoin.
Right now, we see an increase in active address rather than a decline.
#Altcoins are surging. I can see fomo buys all over the place.
And while we are still near bottom levels, this is not the day to buy.
Here are my 7 golden rules to survive the brutal pump-and-dump altcoin cycles.
Let's go!
Note: This is a condensed version of the latest newsletter issue. For more info, check it out in our free discord group
Rule 1
Know when to buy (and when not to). Most traders have it backwards—they chase green candles.
I'm hunting for 80-95% drawdowns, weekly RSI <30, and prices well below 200 day MA.
Higher timeframes tell the real story. Bottom fishing isn't guessing, it's patience.
Rule 2
Spot reversal signals. Look for seller exhaustion: bullish divergences on RSI/MACD, volume spikes after consecutive down legs, and higher lows forming.
Confirm on multiple timeframes. When smart money quietly accumulates, oscillators tell the truth when price is still lying.
Bitcoin and #Altcoins have been dumping in the past 10 hours.
There is much more to it than just Deepseek - We will take a deep dive on what's behind the current dump and what the implications are for the next weeks and months.
A thread.
1. The reasons behind the current drop
A)🌐 DeepSeek shakes markets!
China-based AI firm DeepSeek unveiled an open-source model outperforming OpenAI—built for just $6M. Its low-cost, high-efficiency approach raises concerns about U.S. tech valuations.
Futures in U.S. tech markets dropped on the news, dragging Bitcoin below $99K as crypto (Crypto is strongly linked to tech sentiment), followed the slide. Many "fear" the AI game just changed.
Conclusion: While sentiment has taken a hit, this is nothing that fundamentally changes anything about bitcoin. FUD.
B) Liquidity
As always when Bitcoin pumps, liquidity gets trapped in leveraged long positions that are in profit.
Market makers "need" to free this liquidity so prices can move again. This usually happens through sharp drops and/or peaks.
As you can see in the liquidity heatmap, there is a lot of downside liquidty until 95k. A drop to these levels would not be surprising.
BTC is about to go nuts big time soon. Many are still in doubt and even more think we might have already seen the top.
Here's a mini-thread about why we believe the contrary is the case and that we will see a massive run in late Q3 / early Q4 this year.
1/3
Besides the mere pattern that we now see, there is a strong logic behind the fact that the charts from the past 3 cycles are so similar.
1. Halving: Halving is a sell-the-news event, retail is expecting the big run, whales that have been accumulating start to distribute 2. Post-halving correction and redistribution: Retail adresses have bought the top and start to sell for a loss, while smart money is rebuying. You can see this when looking at these strong support levels in each of the cycles (in this case 53 - 56k)
2/3
What we describe as "short-squeeze zone" is the fact that a lot of liquidations are about to happen in this area. This will reverse many positions, induce a chartreak and turn bearish breakout traders bullish.
Important: Usually these events are preceded by a fakeout and subsequent drop before the actual rally starts.
There is an overwhelming number of #Altcoins in this cycle!
Not every coin will pump with so many new coins and scams flooding the market. A lot of advice isn't useful ("Buy AI. Buy RWA").
5 Trends of the current cycle - A 🧵
1/x
Before we start, some basics:
One reason why many coins haven't really pumped while others reached new ATHs is the fact that the money in the markets is flowing into a much higher number of cryptos than some years ago.
This makes it harder to get the big pumps right.
TREND 1: Age
We see that a lot of newer coins (ICO 2022 or newer) are amongst the massive winners.
INJ, SUI, RNDR, FET have outperformed older coins like MATIC, ATOM or LINK
Halving is done and yet, Bitcoin continues printing red candles. Is this it for this cycle?
A lot of folks are insecure, especially in light of the geopolitical and macroeconomic situation
Let's take a look at some charts and indicators.
A 🧵
1/x
The short answer at the beginning: no, we are not at the end of the bull market.
We believe what we see is a correction which could send us back to the 50ks.
Call it triple top, call it wyckoff distribution. Bitcoin is in correction mode, but...
2/x
... we still believe that this is temporary. In a thread on 2 April, we wrote "double top, decreasing RSI, no bullish divergence in sight. ➡️More downside"
This has been true and so far, BTC stays in this corrective channel