Ted Darling Profile picture
May 13 11 tweets 2 min read
Hello Friday and the week to date!

$USD +1.15%
$CNY -1.8%
$AUD -3.05%
$GOLD -3.1%
$SILVER -7.15%

$SSEC +1.75%
$DAX +0.5%
$CAC -0.85%
$KOSPI -3.55%
$NIKK -4.65%
$COMPQ -6.35%

$WTIC -3.3%
$COPPER -3.9%
$COFFEE +2.3%
$WHEAT +6.35%

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asian markets finished on an ↗️ 🎵

$NIKK 26428 +2.65%
$SSEC 3084 +0.95%
$TWII 15832 +1.4%
$HSI 19902 +2.7%
$KOSPI 2604 +2.1%
$IDX 6598 -0.05%

Australia ↗️
7075 +1.95%

India ↗️
$BSE 53664 +1.4%
Europe ↗️ at the open

$DAX 13889 +1.1%
$FTSE 7327 +1.3%
$CAC 6276 +1.1%
$AEX 685 +1.6%
$IBEX 8281
$MIB 23800 +1.0%
$SMI 11590 +0.75%
$MOEX 2293 -0.2% 🪆

$VSTOXX 32.40
🇺🇸 futures rebounding 🏀 ↗️

$ES 3974 +1.1%
$NQ 12152 +1.75%
$RTY 1765 +0.95%

$VIX 30.74 🔻🛗
Metals ↔️ after GOLD broke trend at 1842

$GOLD 1821 -0.15%
$SILVER 20.752 +0.05%
$COPPER 4.088 -0.3%
$PLAT 942 +1.05%
$PALL 1879 +1.0%
$ALU 2746 +0.15%
$ZINC 3493 -1.05%

$GVZ 21.51 🔺
Hydrocarbons firm ↗️

$WTIC 106.86
$BRENT 108.45 +0.95%
$GASO 3.864 +1.9% ⬅️⛽️ cycle high
$NATGAS 7.819 +1.05%

$OVX 52.71 🔻
Grains remain ♉️↗️

$WHEAT 1180 +0.2%
$CORN 793 +0.15%
$SOYB 1627 +0.8%
$SUGAR 18.80 +1.1%

$COFFEE 216.33 +0.4% ☕️
🐻 but strong price action 📈
After putting in another 20-year high, the $USD takes a break ↘️

$USD 104.675 -0.2%
$EUR 1.04 +0.19%
$GBP 1.22 +0.04%
$AUD 0.689 +0.47%
$USDJPY 128.81 +0.39%
$USDCHF 1.00 -0.25%
$USDCAD 1.301 -0.26%
$USDRUB 63.085 -0.36%🪆
#cryptocurrencies with mega 🐻🏀📈

$BTC 30287 +4.45%
$ETH 2069 +5.55%
UST yields 🏀 ↗️ after tapping low end of range; expecting retest of 3.2% on the 10Y

10/2s to 31 BPS 🔺

MOVE 118.73

2Y 2.597 +0.075
5Y 2.869 +0.087
10Y 2.911 +0.094
30Y 3.067 +0.096

Global 10Ys mostly ↗️
CAN 2.901 -0.103
30+ vol 🌊 makes for big moves ↕️ providing opportunities at the outer edges of the ranges

Bought $TBT at UST10Y neared 2.82%
Covered SOME $XLK 🩳 near 129
Added $GLD puts as $GOLD broke trend
(protective measure as I am long)

Ride the 🌊🏄 and have a super profitable 💰day!

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More from @tdarling1

May 15
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review
5/15/2022

1/10

30 Vol and strong $USD 💣 around the 🌍 with #crypto 💥 and $GOLD breaking Trend (T)

Bond ♉️s finally caught a 🗡️, but equity ♉️s - not so much, though the $DAX, $CAC and $SSEC diverged from $SPX

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/10

Equity vol came in for a second week but remains 🛗

$VIX 28.87 with Trend (T) @ 27.75
$VXN 37.71
$RVX 35.66
$VSOTXX 29.11
$VXEEM 28.52

Chart: $VIX - positive flows from weekly #OPEX pushed $SPX 2.4% on Friday. Image
3/10

Were it not for positive #OPEX flows, 🇺🇸 equity prices would have been worse by 2-3% on the week

$SPX 2.4% (w) -8.95% (T)
$IWM -2.45% (w) -11.6% (T)
$COMPQ -2.8% (w) -14.4% (T)

Chart: $COMPQ 🔨 is -11.6% over (t) duration = 1-month Image
Read 17 tweets
May 1
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global macro review 05/01/2022

1/11

🐰🐰 - we’re gonna need it!

Q1 GDP release this week confirmed #stagflation
Growth -1.4%
Inflation +8.0%

But what did April signal in terms of the current quad regime?

Let’s dig into the April 🧮!
2/11

UST yields ↗️ across the ⤴️

10/2s to 19.9 BPS, +20.6 BPS and out of inversion

MOVE 128.4 +20% for the month = 🛗 vol

Chart: UST2Y 2.73% + 42 BPS for the month but acceleration slowing
2a/11

Chart: The UST10Y 2.94% + 57 BPS with room to run
Read 22 tweets
Apr 29
Hello Friday and the MONTH to date!

$CAC -2.3%
$KOPSI -3.25%
$SSEC -8.55%
$COMPQ -9.5%

$COPPER -8.7%
$WITC +5.05%
$CORN +8.65%
$COTTON +8.85%
$GASO +10.3%
$NATGAS +22.1%

$USD +5.4%
$GOLD -3.2%
$GBP -5.15%
$JPY -7.0%

$TLT -8.25%

$VIX 29.99 +46%

Let's dig into the 🧮
$NIKK closed for the next 6 trading days, but the rest of Asia ripped ↗️ into month end

$SSEC 3047 +2.4%
$TWII 16592 +1.05%
$HSI 21110 +4.1% ⬅️
$KOSPI 2695 +1.05%
$IDX 7229 +0.45%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7435 +1.05%

India ↗️
$BSE 57830 +0.55%
Europe also rallying ↗️ into month end

$DAX 14145 +1.2%
$FTSE 7538 +0.4%
$CAC 6585 +1.2%
$AEX 716 +1.4%
$IBEX 8562 +0.6%
$MIB 24281 +0.95%
$SMI 12159 +0.8%
$MOEX 2431 +1.95% 🪆

$VSTOXX 31.28
Read 11 tweets
Apr 24
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global macro review 4/24/2022

1/11

We got a parade of FOMC members this week, starting with Bullard 🐻 and ending with Powell 💩

Their message was clear - no 👊🥣 for you!

The equity market 🤮, $CRB ↘️, $TNX ↗️, and $USD 🚀

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
1a/11

Indeed the Federal Reserve balance sheet ↘️ -9.5B this week
2/11

With the pending 💦🍋, the $USD has become more valuable - raising havoc around the 🌏

$USD +0.9% (w) +5.8% (T) = 3 months
$USDCHF 3.0% (w) +4.9% (T)
$USDJPY +1.7% (w) +13.05% (T)
$GBP -1.75% (w) -5.3% (T)
$AUD -2.1% (w) +1.0% (T)

Chart: $USD ripping to new cycle highs
Read 23 tweets
Apr 22
Hello Friday and the week to date!

$USD +0.3%
$CNY -1.27%
$GOLD -1.35%

$BTC +2.0%
$COFFEE +1.95%
$CORN +1.45%
$COPPER -0.4%
$WTIC -2.95%
$NATGAS -4.7%

$DAX +2.4%
$CAC +1.9%
$NIKK +1.7%
$COMPQ -1.3%
$HSI -3.9%
$SSEC -4.1%

$TNX +3.15%

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia closed the week on a ↘️🎵

$NIKK 27105 -1.65%
$SSEC 3087 +0.25%
$TWII 17025 -0.6%
$HSI 20614 -0.35%
$KOSPI 2705 -0.85%
$IDX 7226 -0.7%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7473 -1.55%

India ↘️
$BSE 47555 -0.6%
Europe ↘️ in the open hours

$DAX 14320 -1.25%
$FTSE 7599 -0.4%
$CAC 6625 -1.35%
$AEX 721 -1.1%
$IBEX 87535 -0.65%
$MIB 24499 -1.25%
$SMI 12300 unch
$MOEX -0.5% 🪆

$VSTOXX 24.54
Read 11 tweets
Apr 10
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review - 4/10/2022

1/11

The 💦🍋 has begun as the #FOMC drains the 👊🥣

And they are coming after YOU dear investor

"'The Fed needs to 'inflict more losses' on the stock market in order to rein in soaring inflation.’”

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/11

Realizing the Fed bid is no more, bonds headed for the ⛰️⛰️

10/2s steepened ↗️ to 18.6 BPS from #inversion the week earlier

MOVE 125.96 🛗🔺

Chart: $TNX with a new cycle high 2.72% - there’s no reason this cannot go to 5-6%
3/11

Bond ETFs go 'no bid' as the 🐻🐻 continue to roam

$TLT -5.5% (w) -12.05% (T) = 3 mos
$BNDD -5.45% (w) -2.2% (T)
$LQD -3.2% (w) -9.65% (T)
$HYG -2.1% (w) -6.55% (T)
$TIP -1.2% (w) -3.65% (T)
$IVOL +1.6% (w) -3.75% (T) ⬅️

Chart: Despite #inflation, $TIP no place to hide
Read 17 tweets

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